Question on Models?

[EDR1222]

I read the NHC 5 pm discussion and it talked about the models shifting west but they were keeping the forecast track the same, but it looks like to me the models look more east than earlier today? Am I wrong here?

Thanks everyone

[Ground_Zero_92]

I noticed the same thing. It looks like everything has moved move east. Maybe some of the experts here can explain this.

[Guest]

quoted from the other post i responded to


here are A. and B. scenario

A. GFDL, NOGAPS, GFs all point west, to one extent or another

B. ETA, NGM, mm5 AF, all point east, to one extent or another

so which do you follow?

I follow plan B, due to the fact GFDL, NOGAPS, and GFs all underestimated the strength of the trough and associated s/w at the base of the long wave trough days before bonnie. this is why these particular models drew bonnie NE into georgia (north georgia!) and into the appalacians, instead of the center being sheared along with the thunderstorms, and the storm being shunted just north of east and fizzling.

ETA, NGM, mm5 all have been consistent and it would be a SHAM if the TPC and NWS offices did not use a compromise between the solutions of plan A and B in the least.

[The Dark Knight]

You are correct...

[tallywx]

0z NHC models shifted back eastward. Generally, they are showing tracks anywhere in between Tampa and Ft. Myers. Really, we're getting to that point now where "nowcasting" based on current movement will more as or more fruitful than model indications for pinpointing exactly where in this range the storm will land. Looks like the Big Bend is "in the clear" <---- I risk my reputation on that.

[Winnipesaukee]

Hmmmmmm

[Scott_inVA]

I read the NHC 5 pm discussion and it talked about the models shifting west but they were keeping the forecast track the same, but it looks like to me the models look more east than earlier today? Am I wrong here?

Thanks everyone

Disc:
THE NEW GFDL AND UKMET RUNS HAVE MADE A
WIDE TURN 75 TO 150 NMI LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND MOST OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND NHC MODELS HAVE ALSO MADE A WESTWARD SHIFT. HOWEVER...THE 6- AND 12-HOUR GFDL AND UKMET FORECAST POSITIONS ARE ALREADY 30 TO 60 NMI WEST OR LEFT OF THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. A STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH NOTED DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD HELP TO BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD MOTION. BASED ON THE DEVELOPING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE GULF...AND AN APPARENT LEFT BIAS BY MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE AND EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECAST TRACKS.

Bold added by me to explain why the track was set as it was by TPC.

HIH

Scott

[Bane]

I'm still concerned about wher he goes after Florida. Should he get back over water, he will have a chance to maintain intensity or strengthen before making landfall again up the coast. There are models that still paint an unclear future track to this system.

[The Dark Knight]

Also worried Bane... The newest models are showing a possible Cape Cod hit... Yikes!!!...

[Scott_inVA]

I'm still concerned about wher he goes after Florida. Should he get back over water, he will have a chance to maintain intensity or strengthen before making landfall again up the coast. There are models that still paint an unclear future track to this system.

Well, certainly it's not (IMO) a done deal but the some of the tropicals are ejecting back over the ATL and that is very close to land and only briefly. Charley would spin-up somewhat in this scenario but the trof placement is key. Either way, the main issue will be Big Dog rains, svr wx (TORs), wind damage and flooding. A second landfall increases surge along Carolinas but this track poses significant inland danger...with or without ejecting over the Atlantic and coming back between HHI and Myrtle Beach.

Scott

[Bane]

The UKMET is junk. The BAMM is as well. The BAMD and NHC model worry me some.

[The Dark Knight]

Same here Bane, same here.....

[daisy25]

it looks like the BAMD has it going over Newport RI and then off the SE coast of MA. That has me a little concerned. I live in Groton Ct but will be in Winthrop MA on Sunday and that is located 5 miles NE of Downtown Boston. Plus my parents live 2 house down from the beach.

[wxman57]

Charley will likely lack any tropical characteristics by the time it gets north of 35N. It'll be just like a typical winter-type Hattereas low after becoming involved with that cold front.

[NJCane]

Exactly, still strong winds, high tides, rough surf and heavy rains for the NE coast. It doesnt matter if it is tropical or not really, the results will be similar