Charley now heading NORTH!!!!

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stormernie

Charley now heading NORTH!!!!

#1 Postby stormernie » Thu Aug 12, 2004 8:34 pm

Key West Radar speaks for itself.
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kevin

#2 Postby kevin » Thu Aug 12, 2004 8:35 pm

Not due north, sorry.
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#3 Postby MW98GT » Thu Aug 12, 2004 8:39 pm

Why is everyone so gung-ho about it heading north, i see tons of post about it. Last i see it is heading NNW
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#4 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 12, 2004 8:40 pm

North-Northwest, not north. :roll:
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#5 Postby stormtrackerFDK1 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 8:41 pm

LOL, what is it with this obsession with it going north? It is not moving due north now, geez.
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is "the turn" happening?

#6 Postby Weatherboy1 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 8:42 pm

The last hour or so, we have started to see the first easterly jog of the entire night. I hope it's just a jog. But I have to tell you, if this starts turning N and then NNE earlier than expected, we here on the SE coast are going to be completely unprepared. Crossing my fingers.
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#7 Postby mf_dolphin » Thu Aug 12, 2004 8:43 pm

It is not moving due north! NNW like it has for the last few hours
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#8 Postby opera ghost » Thu Aug 12, 2004 8:43 pm

stormtrackerFDK1 wrote:LOL, what is it with this obsession with it going north? It is not moving due north now, geez.


Because the people who would be in the path of a SW Florida hit are still online and nervous- and most of those in Tampa have sought shelter.
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#9 Postby hial2 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 8:43 pm

Stormernie, it has been moving due north for a while now..BTW, it appears that Cuban landfall will be east of the forecasted models..what,if anything, means down the road,I dont know
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#10 Postby mf_dolphin » Thu Aug 12, 2004 8:44 pm

hial2 it is not moving north.
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#11 Postby Winnipesaukee » Thu Aug 12, 2004 8:44 pm

What about.................................................NOW! Is it going north now??????
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kevin

#12 Postby kevin » Thu Aug 12, 2004 8:45 pm

Okay, here's the deal. Bring up the 5 pm map.

Okay, got it? Now note the jog that extends west from cuba, making a strait between the isle and cuba. Notice that the line has it going between them.

Bring up the radar. Notice that the eye is going to pass between them. Notice that the track has this exact same situation. Now... at 11 we will see whether I was right, and by tomorrow morning we will know for sure whether the track is the right track.
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#13 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Aug 12, 2004 8:46 pm

The recon fixes have it moving at 335 b/w the last two fixes.

The radar also shows a little west of north. Remember...storms wobble and saying a storm is moving north based on a 45 minute radar loop is...well...not good observation.

Storms wobble...its called trochoidal motion. So...just remember that you need more than 45 minutes of radar to establish a real motion.
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#14 Postby mf_dolphin » Thu Aug 12, 2004 8:46 pm

Radar only covers a few minutes. You can not tell track from radar. Plot the fixes and you'll see the track.
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#15 Postby stormtrackerFDK1 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 8:48 pm

hial2 wrote:Stormernie, it has been moving due north for a while now..BTW, it appears that Cuban landfall will be east of the forecasted models..what,if anything, means down the road,I dont know


LOL. It is exactly where it is supposed to be per NHC.
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kevin

#16 Postby kevin » Thu Aug 12, 2004 8:49 pm

Glad that has been pretty much dealt with. When will recon be back over this thing?
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#17 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 12, 2004 8:49 pm

I think people in Southeast Florida want it to move north so they can be hit by Charley. It is NOT moving North. :roll:
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#18 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 12, 2004 8:50 pm

kevin wrote:Glad that has been pretty much dealt with. When will recon be back over this thing?


When it passes Cuba. I don't think they can fly over it right now. :(
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#19 Postby The Dark Knight » Thu Aug 12, 2004 8:50 pm

I'll be waiting......
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#20 Postby mf_dolphin » Thu Aug 12, 2004 8:51 pm

I'll be sleeping lol Tomorrow is going to be a looooooong day here in St Pete.
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