Bonnie tracking east of forecast track!

Bane · #1 Postby **Bane** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:19 pm

latest discussion from Wilmington:

.SHORT TERM PUBLIC UPDATE...
HAVE SENT AN UPDATED ZFP PACKAGE TO REPRESENT SOME CHANGES
NECESSITATED BY THE ABBERANT BEHAVIOR OF THE NEW LOW DEEPENING OFF
THE SAVANNAH AND BEAUFORT SC COAST. THIS LOW IS APPARENTLY THE
REMNANTS OF TD BONNIE AND IS TRACKING SIGNIFICANTLY EAST OF PRIOR
FORECASTS. WAVE OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL HAS DEVELOPED N OF THE LOW
AND IS TAKING AIM ON COASTAL SC...AND THEN COASTAL NC AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE BEEFED UP THE POTENTIAL FLOODING WORDING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE ZFP WITH 1-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN NOW APPEARING
POSSIBLE. ALSO MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WITH MANY AREAS ALREADY 4-6 DEGREES BELOW FORECAST LOWS. WITH THE
NEW TRACK OF THE REMNANT LOW POSSIBLY ALONG THE COASTLINE RATHER
THAN WELL INLAND...HAVE PUSHED WINDS AROUND TO EASTERLY FOR MOST
ZONES.

FULL EVENING UPDATE (INCLUDING COASTAL WATERS AND AVIATION) WILL BE
ISSUED AFTER THE UPCOMING HURRICANE CONFERENCE CALL.

Bane · #2 Postby **Bane** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:20 pm

Latest radar image from Wilmington:

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Guest · #3 Postby **Guest** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:20 pm

nevermind

The Dark Knight · #4 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:27 pm

Wow.... I wonder if Charley is following it's older sister Bonnie???.....

obxhurricane · #5 Postby **obxhurricane** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:28 pm

Hey Bane!

You're right, but it is extra tropical now. In any case...it sure is going to get wet here tonight! Maybe a bit breezy as well with a possible 'nader or two in the wee hours! :wink:

chris_fit · #6 Postby **chris_fit** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:28 pm

Who? Bonnie??? Who's that? :-P

~Chris

obxhurricane · #7 Postby **obxhurricane** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:29 pm

Wow.... I wonder if Charley is following it's older sister Bonnie???.....

We can only hope!

obxhurricane · #8 Postby **obxhurricane** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:30 pm

A look at the Charleston radar show the remnant low quite well. Appears to be moving back over water.

Three Blind Mice · #9 Postby **Three Blind Mice** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:31 pm

Hickory, saw yours first at WWBB! So, What do ya'll think about the chances of a repeat with Charley up the east coast.

obxhurricane · #10 Postby **obxhurricane** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:32 pm

BEAUFORT TSTM 74 73 97 NE9 29.86R

Not much wind tho

Bane · #11 Postby **Bane** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:33 pm

Yep, it's extratropical, but it is well off the forecast track to the east. I was a little surprised that the models missed so badly here.

obxhurricane · #12 Postby **obxhurricane** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:34 pm

Going to be a close call on Charley. The slightest shift eastward will have huge implications for our coast.

obxhurricane · #13 Postby **obxhurricane** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:38 pm

the 00Z ETA brings Charley back over water...but then again this is the ETA we're talking about. And we all know how well it does with tropical systems. It doesn't even carry a surface reflection early on in the forecast. Interestng nonetheless.

The Dark Knight · #14 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:41 pm

It will.... 11PM soon be out soon......

Bane · #15 Postby **Bane** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:48 pm

11pm is out for the public.

Interesting that they have issued tropical storm watches up the east coast now.

Bonnie tracking east of forecast track!

Bonnie tracking east of forecast track!

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