Charley now heading NORTH!!!!

[wx247]

I was hearing Dr. Lyons talk earlier this evening (around 8 eastern I believe) and he said at that time it was directly south of Tampa so if it were to turn north now it would still be bad news for areas farther north. I still only see NNW movement though.

[hial2]

Please look at this map and tell me that Charlie is going where this map says it should be..

http://midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[kevin]

Oh that's right. Fidel still has issues with America. Watched the old guy making a speech on CSPAN III, and he seemed almost as weak as the Pope. But he doesn't have a cool Popemobile.

[sfwx]

I think it may now be moving south of due north and a little east of west. Radar can be very deceving.

opera ghost, that is probably VERY true!

Eric

[kevin]

Please look at this map and tell me that Charlie is going where this map says it should be..

http://midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm<<

storms can only be in one place going at one direction at one moment. So obviously it can't do what all those models say it will... but the NHC track, I thought I pretty much cracked the case when I detailed where it is, where it is going, and where the track is forecasted.

Maybe....... the computer output north (that is the top of the screen) isn't true north. Because as any kid knows maps do not accurately project all properties of the globe, but only certain properties to a certain degree.

[kevin]

Anyhow, it is still between the two objects the track has it between. Meaning deviance of what... a couple miles???

[hial2]

Kevin, I tested my monitor and I can tell you that the top of my monitor points to the earth's magnetic shield true north..LOL!!

Come on, you are splitting hairs (or hurricanes) here,Kevin!!

[kevin]

Not really. If anything I had to go down to that level because you all are looking at a dynamic storm at a 5 minute level, and getting all fidgety. We've only got 40 minutes until better analysis.

[kevin]

By the way, the radar north issue is because this storm is already west of Tampa. Already. Look at your radar, does it look west of Tampa? Nope. Why is that? hmmm...

[hightide]

Max Mayfield was just on Channel 7 in Fort Myers and stated that Charlie had more of a North component the last couple of hours and should be watched to see if this was just a short term jog. He also said that Cuba had granted permission for flights into the storm over their airspace.

[hial2]

Thank you Hightide..You just proved my point

[tampastorm]

Look at latest loop clearly still a westward component.

[Guest]

dude do you think anyone here really cares about FACTS and recon fixes?

as long as it "jogs" closer to MY house that is what is important

The recon fixes have it moving at 335 b/w the last two fixes.

The radar also shows a little west of north. Remember...storms wobble and saying a storm is moving north based on a 45 minute radar loop is...well...not good observation.

Storms wobble...its called trochoidal motion. So...just remember that you need more than 45 minutes of radar to establish a real motion.

[MGC]

Charlie is wobbling along on a course just west of north.......MGC

[kevin]

Okay, I tried my best. That's all folks. Cling to your mysticism if you'd like. I'm not a meteorologist, but I would like a discussion dealing with analysis and something resembling numerics. This isn't a pissing contest.

[Aquawind]

dude do you think anyone here really cares about FACTS and recon fixes?

as long as it "jogs" closer to MY house that is what is important

The recon fixes have it moving at 335 b/w the last two fixes.

The radar also shows a little west of north. Remember...storms wobble and saying a storm is moving north based on a 45 minute radar loop is...well...not good observation.

Storms wobble...its called trochoidal motion. So...just remember that you need more than 45 minutes of radar to establish a real motion.

LOL

[kevin]

And for the record, I do agree its wobbling.

[KBBOCA]

As one of the folks who's worried about SE Florida being TOTALLY unprepared at the moment for Charley, I've been one of the ones worried about a "premature" N -> NE turn. That's what Irene did to us in 1999. She was a minor storm. With Charley such a surprise would be another matter entirely. So, I find it frustrating that those of us voicing this concern and observing Charley's apparent motion on radar have been so quickly ridiculed and shouted down. The concern is real and legitimate. And NOW the 11 p.m. NHC discussion confirms what we were saying and shows the link between the early due Northward movement and the risk to SE FL.

"Radar tracking showed a due northward motion for a time this evening...which raises the question of whether Charley is turning northward a little permaturely. ...

The possibility of a premature northward motion and the forecast size of the storm requires tropical storm watches to be extended southward along the Southeast Florida coast."

OK?! So would those folks who criticized us for worrying about this please shut up now?

[Rainband]

Nope the facts are facts. You can have him if you want him, though

[kevin]

Okay, if any of you want to argue with what I was saying, that is fine. I said it was on track, and it was. Basic geographic fact. Its exactly where it was forecast to do. I understand that small deviations with the coastline and all will result in big changes. But a wobble this way, can easily and will almost always be followed by a wobble that way. I am personally seeing that on radar now, but like the other northward motion, its probably just a byproduct of a dynamic system.

Can't expect these things to move in a straight line. Everyone should be prepared for this if they are by the water....