Comments on the Atlantic (12.08.2004, 0208 UTC)

[DoctorHurricane2003]

R 12.08.2004 (THU AUG 12 2004)
0208 UTC (908 PM CDT)


HURRICANE CHARLEY (03L)

Charley has become much better organized through the day, including having gone through and completed a brief rapid intensification phase. Current winds of 105 MPH are most likely going to increase through the night before striking Cuba, as well as tomorrow after leaving the North Coast. SHORT TERM FORECAST: Expect winds of 105-110 MPH at the 11 PM advisory. LONG TERM: Expect a great possibility of another rapid intensification phase occurring, and perhaps a rapid deepening phase. An explosive deepening phase is not likely. Expect landfall in the Tampa Bay area...perhaps just north of it. Maximum sustained winds at landfall should be between 125 MPH (minimum) and 170 MPH (maximum), with winds most likely at 140 MPH. Gusts could be in the category 5 range...including gusts of up to 200 MPH. Percentages of being within a category at landfall: Category 3: 40% Category 4: 42% Category 5: 18%. This storm should not be taken lightly. If landfall does...as is expected to, make landfall around TARPON SPRINGS, CLEARWATER, PINELLAS PARK, or SAINT PETERSBURG/TAMPA; expect a storm surge that could be in the 20 foot range be pushed up Tampa Bay, flooding low lying areas to great extents. Expect extreme wind damage along and inland from the coast. Rainfall could exceed 4-5 inches, inducing minor street flooding and overflow of small streams. People in the following locations should continually monitor the progress of Hurricane Charley:

TARPON SPRINGS, CLEARWATER (74%)
PINELLAS PARK (72%)
SAINT PETERSBURG, TAMPA (70%)
SARASOTA (53%)
SPRING HILL (51%)
VENICE, PORT CHARLOTTE (50%)
CRYSTAL RIVER (43%)
FORT MYERS, CAPE CORAL (42%)
CEDAR KEY (36%)
NAPLES (33%)


INVEST 94L

This system has not yet made it off the coast of Africa, however, it is showing impressive circulation and T-Numbers of 1.0. Continue to monitor this system for further development as it moves westward into the Atlantic.

***END

[bahamaswx]

Nice discussion as always.

[wxcsi]

R 12.08.2004 (THU AUG 12 2004)
0208 UTC (908 PM CDT)


HURRICANE CHARLEY (03L)

...An explosive deepening phase is not likely. Expect landfall in the Tampa Bay area...perhaps just north of it. Maximum sustained winds at landfall should be between 125 MPH (minimum) and 170 MPH (maximum), with winds most likely at 140 MPH. Gusts could be in the category 5 range...including gusts of up to 200 MPH. Percentages of being within a category at landfall: Category 3: 40% Category 4: 42% Category 5: 18%. This storm should not be taken lightly.

***END

Dr. H,

Wow! I agree the storm must be taken seriously.

I think, however, it would be difficult to get a CAT-4 into FL without an explosive deepening phase.

M