Charley Advisories

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#1861 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:41 pm

IT's not moving north. Check the vortex messages. NNW.
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8pm Charley-105 mph winds, 976 mb pressure

#1862 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:48 pm

Hurricane Charley Intermediate Advisory Number 14a

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on August 12, 2004

...Charley passing the Isle of Youth as it approaches western
Cuba...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from the
Dry Tortugas to the Seven Mile Bridge...and for the Florida West
Coast from East Cape Sable northward to Bayport. The warning will
likely be extended northward later tonight. A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area during the next 24 hours. Preparations should be rushed to
completion.

The Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Florida West Coast
from north of Bayport northward to the Suwannee river. A Hurricane
Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef...and along the South Florida
Mainland from Ocean Reef to East Cape Sable...including all of
Florida Bay. At 5 PM EDT...a tropical storm watch has been issued
for portions of the Florida and Georgia coasts from Jupiter Inlet
northward to Altamaha Sound...including Lake Okeechobee.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the following provinces of
western Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...
Matanzas...and the Isle of Youth.

At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Charley was located
near latitude 21.7 north...longitude 82.3 west or just east of the
Isle of Youth Cuba. This is also about 90 miles...145 km...south
of Havana Cuba.

Charley is now moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph
...27 km/hr. A gradual turn toward the north is expected during
the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...Charley is expected to
pass near Havana later tonight or early Friday morning...and then
move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Weather conditions
should continue to deteriorate over western Cuba during the next
few hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. This makes Charley a category two hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours and Charley could become a major
hurricane later tonight or Friday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles... 45 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 125 miles...205 km.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is 976 mb...28.82 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 10 to 14 feet can be expected along the
South Coast of Cuba near and east of where the center makes
landfall. In addition...storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet...along
with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected in the
Florida Keys. Storm surge flooding of 10 to 13 feet is also
possible near and south of the where the center crosses the Florida
West Coast.

Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are likely in association with
Charley. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods.

Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...21.7 N... 82.3 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 976 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 PM EDT.
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#1863 Postby Guest » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:55 pm

I'm pyshic. Every 3 hours you sit on WU hitting reload non-stop for 20 min.

Back on topic the eye is regaining it's circular identity, and I believe the pressure will plummet when he crosses Cuba into the GOM. Hopefully everyone in Charley's path in FL is taking every precaution possible, looks like they will have a monster on their doorstep tomorrow.. Good luck down there.
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Charley slowing down ?

#1864 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:56 pm

It appears charley may have slowed down in last 6 hours.
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#1865 Postby Anonymous » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:57 pm

I think its safe to say that Charlie will emerge from Cuba with its 105 mph winds, as itll probably slightly strengthen (maybe an addition 5 mph or so) before making landfall near Havana.
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#1866 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:59 pm

MdWx wrote:I'm pyshic. Every 3 hours you sit on WU hitting reload non-stop for 20 min..


Yeah. Well, actually, my sister was on and as soon as she got off I went to WU and it was out. Must have just came out since it wasn't posted here.

My only weakness is 2am and 5am(and occasionally 8am). :)
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Hurricane Charley 972 MB, New RECON Says

#1867 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 13, 2004 2:33 am

URNT12 KNHC 130656
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/0656Z
B. 23 DEG 17 MIN N
82 DEG 43 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2837 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 086 DEG 81 KT
G. 339 DEG 05 NM
H. 972 MB
I. 7 C/ 3080 M
J. 14 C/ 3072 M
K. NA / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C18
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF980 0803A CHARLEY OB 11
MAX FL WIND 102KT NE QUAD 0543Z.
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Derek Ortt

very early morning charley forecast

#1868 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 13, 2004 2:47 am

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl032004forecast.html

I will have graphics with this one, landfall just south of Tampa Bay, but the NE winds wilol still produce serious flooding in the Bay
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104kt Flight Level Winds

#1869 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Aug 13, 2004 3:02 am

000
URNT14 KNHC 130729
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01246 10827 13146 10606 12048
02243 20828 23133 20606 12041
03241 30828 33118 30606 11045
04238 40828 43103 40606 10046
05236 50828 53066 50707 10057
MF234 M0827 MF081
OBS 01 AT 0632Z
OBS 05 AT 0650Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
01233 10824 13050 10707 18076
02233 20821 23100 20606 18058
03233 30818 33117 30707 18055
04233 40816 43130 40505 17058
05233 50813 53140 50605 18049
06233 60810 63148 60606 17043
MF233 M0825 MF104
OBS 01 AT 0701Z
OBS 06 AT 0723Z
OBS 06 SFC WND /////
RMK AF980 0803A CHARLEY OB 15
MODIFIED PATTERN, INBOUND FROM 75NM NORTH, OUTBOUND TO 105NM EAST[/b]
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Local TV Station Tracking Charley Since 4:00 A.M.

#1870 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 13, 2004 3:21 am

NBC 6, and ABC 10, started to track again Charley since 4 AM, also I have not sleep all night long.
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#1871 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Aug 13, 2004 3:24 am

Don't feel bad, I never sleep at night. Insomnia sucks.
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Charley Becoming More Like A Classic Cane On Latest IR....

#1872 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Fri Aug 13, 2004 3:37 am

Charley is showing a large red eruption on the northern eye wall.

The eye is also becoming more visible on IR.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg
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5am Charley Strengthens 110mph

#1873 Postby southerngale » Fri Aug 13, 2004 3:51 am

Hurricane Charley Advisory Number 16


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 13, 2004


...Hurricane Charley in the Florida Straits...

at 5 am EDT...0900z...the Hurricane Warning is extended northward
along the Florida West Coast to the Steinhatchee river. A
Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Florida Keys from the
Dry Tortugas to the Seven Mile Bridge...and for the Florida West
Coast from East Cape Sable northward to the Steinhatchee river. A
Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area during the next 24 hours. Preparations
should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the following
provinces of western Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...Ciudad de
la Habana...Matanzas...and the Isle of Youth.

At 5 am...0900z...a Tropical Storm Warning is issued for the Florida
and Georgia coasts from Cocoa Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound
Georgia. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the
Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef...and along
the South Florida Mainland from Ocean Reef to East Cape
Sable...including Florida Bay and Lake Okeechobee.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the tropical storm watch has been extended
northward to Cape Fear North Carolina. A tropical storm watch is
now in effect for the southeastern U. S. Coast from Ocean Reef
northward to south of Cocoa Beach and from north of Altamaha Sound
Georgia to Cape Fear North Carolina.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the eye of Hurricane Charley was located near
latitude 23.9 north...longitude 82.9 west or about 85 miles...135
km...west-southwest of Key West Florida.

Charley is moving toward the north-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr.
A gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph...175
km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strenghtening is possible and
Charley is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the
Florida West Coast.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles... 45 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 125 miles...205 km.

Latest minimum central pressure reported by a hurricane
reconnaissance plane was 970 mb...28.64 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet...along with large and dangerous
battering waves...can be expected in the Florida Keys. Storm surge
flooding of 10 to 13 feet is also possible near and south of the
where the center crosses the Florida West Coast.

Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are likely in association with
Charley. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods.
Isolated tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys today.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...23.9 N... 82.9 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...110 mph. Minimum central pressure... 970 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 7 am EDT and 9 am EDT followed by the next complete
advisory at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila
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Matthew5

Charley stronger!

#1874 Postby Matthew5 » Fri Aug 13, 2004 3:51 am

The weather channel just said that Charley is now 110 mph winds with 970 millibar Pressure.
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Derek Ortt

#1875 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 13, 2004 4:02 am

110,


if one goes back and looks at the FL data form yesterday, Charley has not intensified in terms of a wind increase. FL winds were actually slightly higher yesterday. Best track may show that this was 110 m.p.h. since 2 p.m. yesterday
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Matthew5

#1876 Postby Matthew5 » Fri Aug 13, 2004 4:03 am

Derek it looks like it is getting a little stronger?

How do you think of 94L?
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Derek Ortt

#1877 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 13, 2004 4:04 am

I really dont give a crap about 94L right now and havnt been looking at it at all
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#1878 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Aug 13, 2004 4:04 am

Roger that.
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Anonymous

#1879 Postby Anonymous » Fri Aug 13, 2004 4:05 am

LOL :D
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Anonymous

#1880 Postby Anonymous » Fri Aug 13, 2004 4:08 am

Here is the 5am discussion:

radar and reconnaissance data show that after crossing Cuba...the
eye still remains well-defined with about an 18 N mi diameter. Max
winds reported by the plane were 104 knots at 700 mb with an
extrapolated pressure of 968 mb and 970 mb by a drop. Key West
radar showed Doppler winds higher than 100 knots. Initial intensity
is being adjusted to 95 knots. The shear is forecast to be weak for
the next 12 hours and the water is warm. Therefore....Charley is
likely to strengthen before landfall.


Charley is moving north-northwest or 345 degrees at 16 knots. There
has been no change in guidance and most of the models unanimously
bring the hurricane on a northward and then north-northeast track.
The official forecast brings the hurricane very close to the West
Coast of Florida bringing the center inland within the warning area
between 12 and 24 hours.


Due to the uncertainties in the track forecast...the Hurricane
Warning has been extended northward along the West Coast of Florida
to Steinhatchee river. The extention of the tropical storm force
wind radii to the east of the center requires a Tropical Storm
Warning for a portion of the east Florida and Georgia coasts as
indicated.


Forecaster Avila
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