Charley Advisories

[mitchell]

with second less powerful landfall - NC

[tallbunch]

most models have the storm riding just inland. Has this changed?

[The Dark Knight]

Hmmm..... Interesting....

[Guest]

Hum....details?

[Derek Ortt]

Its no different from what we've been saying for the last 36 hours.

[mitchell]

Agree...pretty mainstream idea at this point.

[weatherluvr]

I don't think there's going to be significant redevelopment if it emerges over the Atlantic due to the increasing shear ahead of it (although it might slow down the weakening), but an offshore track should cause more coastal flooding along the S and SE facing shorelines. Forward speed will play more of a role than intensity changes.

[alicia-w]

From the hurricane hunters vortex data, it appears that the max flight level winds are about 117..... I realize that this data is a few hours old....

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/URNT12.KNHC

[Air Force Met]

Seems TWC isn't wanting to report what the radar is seeing, indicating winds above 110 on Charley's NNE eyewall now...

Remember the radar shoots a straight line and the earth is curved. Therefore, those winds which are 115 kts are at 5,000'...NOT at the surface.

Looking at the eyewall structure...I don't see a lot more strengthening out of this. It will probably make 115-120...but that is about it. The eye is only 8-10 miles across...which is not real condusive for explosive development. Reason: Expolsive development is always followed by a tightening of the eye...which is what ramps up the winds (due to pressure fall)...and this thing can't contract that much more. Should be about 960mb at landfall.

[The Dark Knight]

If you take a look at the latest water vapor for US... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html All of these pulses that are moving along the trough that is stalled over Eastern Seaboard. If you look very closely you will see that if a pulse started off close to the dry air, it moved eastward to try to avoid it, it looks like Charley will do the same thing.. I can't see a possible Cat. 3 hurricane moving to an inland track with all of that dry air to it's west.... Just my little thought on it.... Also there is a ridge building over the Great Lakes that is moving ese, this will also put pressure on Charley... I really just don't see an inland track.... But, I'm no pro. so.......

[CaluWxBill]

Seems TWC isn't wanting to report what the radar is seeing, indicating winds above 110 on Charley's NNE eyewall now...

Remember the radar shoots a straight line and the earth is curved. Therefore, those winds which are 115 kts are at 5,000'...NOT at the surface.

Looking at the eyewall structure...I don't see a lot more strengthening out of this. It will probably make 115-120...but that is about it. The eye is only 8-10 miles across...which is not real condusive for explosive development. Reason: Expolsive development is always followed by a tightening of the eye...which is what ramps up the winds (due to pressure fall)...and this thing can't contract that much more. Should be about 960mb at landfall.

well base level is 0.5° above horizon and then you add the curvature. but 0.5° is basically straight.

[mitchell]

Florida isn't land???

[Stephanie]

Florida isn't land???

Good question....

Is Charley then just going to fizzle out in the Gulf?? I think that you need to rethink what you just posted.

[The Dark Knight]

It is, but, I mean like inland, Penn., NY,..MD.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[mitchell]

I'm sure the meaning was AFTER Florida but still sounded funny

[Stephanie]

That's better!

[Guest]

Your are close to being mental... FL isnt land? having 3 million evacuate isnt important is it? the only thing that is important is whether a weak tropical storm passes over your location in Cape cod

It is, but, I mean like inland, Penn., NY,..MD.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[The Dark Knight]

LOL... Sorry......

[GalvestonDuck]

I'm not comforted.

[Brent]

I was like what on earth?

Florida's flat, but it is land, barely.