Charley Advisories

[AlexiBlue]

Just saw some video from Cuba aired on http://www.wtsp.com/news/live.asp

Nasty stuff. Looks like a bomb went off! At least one person dead, massive damage. Buildings torn apart, trees and powerlines down everywhere, big flooding.

I really hope this thing doesn't make direct impact on Ft. Meyers or Tampa, but sadly, it looks like one or both are going to get it..

[Guest]

also Charley has a HIGHER than Normal relationship of MSLP and winds due to the location of thge Ridge

[The Dark Knight]

DT, I have al ready corrected myself and I had some help from Mitchell... I appreciate your concern though..... and I NEVER said that Charley would hit Cape Cod..... I just said that I really don't see such a far inland track like the NHC has....

[sponger]

We are kind of a big sand bar! St augustine here watching and waiting!

[GalvestonDuck]

We are kind of a big sand bar! St augustine here watching and waiting!

I know the feeling.

(Shush, vbhoutex! )

[The Dark Knight]

LOL... Stay safe......

[Guest]

TAMPA

http://www.geocities.com/weatherwizard88/charley.html

Between 9PM and 10PM from the looks of it right now.

[hurricanetrack]

Hello all! We are in Sarasota looking for a good open spot to set up our equipment and do our work of gathering wind, pressure and other data. There are quite a few folks out and about getting gas and last minute items. Not much overall traffic though- roads not clogged here at all. Clouds rolling in but no rain yet. Pressure here in Sarasota on our Tahoe weather station is 1016.8 MB. Wind is 4 mph from the east.

More as we can....

Mark

[sponger]

Every one except the NHC thinks this storm is heading a beeline for Jacksonville. Our local news is calling for 30-50 mph winds with land fall at Cedar Key. We will see!!!

[sponger]

Welocme mark, Keep us posted! And be safe!

[Superstorm]

I think 11 or 5 today. Landfall as Cat 3, not 4.

[Josephine96]

I'm thinking Tampa or just south of Tampa with a winds extending into central Florida as well

[Brent]

When recon finds strong enough winds.

Either at 11am, 1pm, 3pm, or 5pm. After that, it'll close to land.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

[A]
F 13.08.2004 (FRI AUG 13 2004)
1356 UTC (856 AM CDT)


HURRICANE CHARLEY (03L)

Charley continues to move towards the W FL coastline, and should make landfall just north of SAINT PETERSBURG/TAMPA around PINELLAS PARK and/or TARPON SPRINGS sometime tonight. Current strength is at 110 MPH as reported by reconnaissance aircraft, however, it does appear likely that Charley will continue to strengthen into Category 3 status and/or Category 4 Status. By landfall, maximum sustained winds should be between 125 and 155 MPH, with the most likely amount between 135 and 140. At time of landfall, expect a storm surge of up to 20 feet in some areas up Tampa Bay, flooding any area below that elevation along the coast. Extremely destructive winds will cause roofs to be blow off houses, sink boats, glass from windows in skyscrapers to be blown onto streets (perhaps even the gutting of some buildings), and the uprooting of trees. Rainfall could exceed 8 inches in some areas, inducing street flooding and the flooding of small and urban streams, which could happen very quickly with the storm surge blocking outlets into the Gulf. If you have not yet left, do so now (Suggested Routes: Suncoast Pkwy Toll Road (FL 589), I-275, I-75, I-4, US-92, US-41, FL-64). If you have not yet left by 4:15 PM EDT, it will be too late to leave, especially as high winds could endanger vehicles crossing high profile bridges over Tampa Bay (i.e. the Sunshine Skyway Bridge, I-275). Before leaving, make sure all windows are boarded, all loose yard items are stored inside, and all pets have been sheltered or taken with you. If you choose to stay, it is reminded that this is a very dangerous situation and you will most likely lose all property and perhaps your life...it is suggested that you write your next of kin in permanent marker on your arm, or prior to the storm, notify them or a lawyer of this information. After the storm, do not venture outside, or if you have evacuated, do not venture into the Tampa Bay area until police have deemed it safe by clearing glass and other debris from streets. Make sure to drink bottled water, and stay away from downed power lines and watch for broken gas mains if you must go outside.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04L

Newly-formed Tropical Depression 04L is situated southwest of the Cape Verde Islands with winds of 35 MPH. Expect 04L to continue moving westward and get better organized over the next week. It could become a tropical storm by later tonight, and a hurricane by Sunday. People in the Leeward Islands need to monitor the progress of 04L.


INVEST 95L

A tropical wave east of the Windward Islands is showing signs of development and T-Numbers of 1.0. Monitor the progress of this system as it continues westward toward the islands.

***END

[Weatherboy1]

These past few hours, a clear NNE movement appears to have gotten underway. Yes, it could just be a wobble. But if this continues, this thing could come in as far south as Ft. Myers, in my opinion. I'm very interested to see what the NHC says in its 11 a.m. update.

[GaryOBX]

The 8AM position from NHC was 24.7/82.9

The 10AM position estimate from NHC was 24.9/82.8

That's NNE to me... but is it a trend?

[alicia-w]

I dont see recon going out for this anymore....

Ref: Plan of the day...

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/NOUS42.KNHC

[cebers01]

That may be, but eyewall rebuilding that takes place with strong 'canes does not necessarily change the eye size, and nor does the SST's that are aiding this development. But this loop sure looks like a tightening eye to me...

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wx/radar/index.html

Check the keys radar, which will give you a very close indication of the eye... Looks tighter, or maybe I need glasses...

[Stormchaser16]

Wheres the option they dont?

[Air Force Met]

I think it goes south of Tampa now. The track has an eastward component now and IF it doesn't deviate it goes over Tampa...I think it will veer a little more right. Think B/W Ft Myers and Sarasota is the landfall area.