Charley Advisories

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tallywx
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#1981 Postby tallywx » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:43 am

Max. flight level winds outbound of that...121 kts. Cat 3, folks!

URNT14 KNHC 131430
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01262 10841 13156 10804 99005
02260 20839 23161 20806 99005
03258 30837 33156 30904 06018
04256 40835 43142 40905 05024
05255 50833 53134 51007 02018
06253 60831 63117 60808 07036
07251 70830 73063 71010 06043
MF250 M0828 MF073
OBS 01 AT 1333Z
OBS 07 AT 1357Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 99005
01247 10826 13058 11010 22082
02246 20824 23119 20908 23058
03244 30822 33148 30808 22059
04242 40820 43165 40807 21050
05240 50818 53180 50805 21052
MF249 M0827 MF121
OBS 01 AT 1409Z
OBS 05 AT 1427Z
OBS 05 SFC WND 20050
RMK AF963 0903A CHARLEY OB 07
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Pebbles
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#1982 Postby Pebbles » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:44 am

Can't say what I would really like to cause my Mama might see wash out my mouth with soap *winks at NCBird* so........ ARGGGGGGGGGGGGG
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tallywx
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121 kts flight level - Charley to be cat. 3

#1983 Postby tallywx » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:45 am

121 kts outbound of latest vortex.

URNT14 KNHC 131430
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01262 10841 13156 10804 99005
02260 20839 23161 20806 99005
03258 30837 33156 30904 06018
04256 40835 43142 40905 05024
05255 50833 53134 51007 02018
06253 60831 63117 60808 07036
07251 70830 73063 71010 06043
MF250 M0828 MF073
OBS 01 AT 1333Z
OBS 07 AT 1357Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 99005
01247 10826 13058 11010 22082
02246 20824 23119 20908 23058
03244 30822 33148 30808 22059
04242 40820 43165 40807 21050
05240 50818 53180 50805 21052
MF249 M0827 MF121
OBS 01 AT 1409Z
OBS 05 AT 1427Z
OBS 05 SFC WND 20050
RMK AF963 0903A CHARLEY OB 07
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#1984 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:45 am

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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Hurricane Cheese
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#1985 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:45 am

Hey everyone, I just woke up after a four hour "nap" lol


Looks like he's strengthening, although when I went to bed I thought he was too.


Does it look like a Cat 3 now?
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chris_fit
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#1986 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:46 am

Not looking to good for me in Sarasota is it?
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#1987 Postby Nimbus » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:46 am

If the trend holds it will keep the eyewalls east of Tampa.
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#1988 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:47 am

Hurricane Cheese wrote:Does it look like a Cat 3 now?


121 kt at flight level is a DEFINITE Category 3.
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Stormcenter
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Charley shrunk

#1989 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:47 am

Maybe someone else has posted this already but Charly is
not as large as it once was ever since it moved off of
Cuba. I guess that's the only good news so far. By the way it
sure looks to be moving NNE so MAYBE Tampa will be spared the full effects of the storm though not good for Fort Myers.
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#1990 Postby Stormchaser16 » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:48 am

Actually......... 121 at Flight Level is 138MPH.....

* .8 is only around 111
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tallywx
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#1991 Postby tallywx » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:48 am

Using 90% reduction on that flight level (as they have been doing), that yields 109 kts surface. They'll probably do 105 kts, or 120 mph at 11 a.m.
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Re: 121 kts flight level - Charley to be cat. 3

#1992 Postby Guest » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:48 am

explosive deepening phase beginning ? SE Gulf is traditionally a great place for it



tallywx wrote:121 kts outbound of latest vortex.

URNT14 KNHC 131430
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01262 10841 13156 10804 99005
02260 20839 23161 20806 99005
03258 30837 33156 30904 06018
04256 40835 43142 40905 05024
05255 50833 53134 51007 02018
06253 60831 63117 60808 07036
07251 70830 73063 71010 06043
MF250 M0828 MF073
OBS 01 AT 1333Z
OBS 07 AT 1357Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 99005
01247 10826 13058 11010 22082
02246 20824 23119 20908 23058
03244 30822 33148 30808 22059
04242 40820 43165 40807 21050
05240 50818 53180 50805 21052
MF249 M0827 MF121
OBS 01 AT 1409Z
OBS 05 AT 1427Z
OBS 05 SFC WND 20050
RMK AF963 0903A CHARLEY OB 07
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Pebbles
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#1993 Postby Pebbles » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:48 am

*raises her hand and waves it wildly* teacher teacher..can I have my test back and change the answer please?
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#1994 Postby Patrick » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:50 am

Looking like Charlie may be following the GFDL not the NHC path

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_03.gif
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ncbird
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#1995 Postby ncbird » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:50 am

OK Pebbles... will say it for you... Holy Futter Duck.....
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tallywx
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#1996 Postby tallywx » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:51 am

Unfortunately, looks like the 11 a.m. advisory was issued RIGHT before they got this info. They still keep her at 95 kts, 970 mb pressure.
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#1997 Postby Stormchaser16 » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:52 am

'Scuse me

Gotta use .9 stead of .8

Makes it...... about 125
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Pebbles
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#1998 Postby Pebbles » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:52 am

ncbird wrote:OK Pebbles... will say it for you... Holy Futter Duck.....

Thanks Bird :eek:
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#1999 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:52 am

tallywx wrote:Using 90% reduction on that flight level (as they have been doing), that yields 109 kts surface. They'll probably do 105 kts, or 120 mph at 11 a.m.


According to the marine advisory, winds are still 110 mph and pressure 970 at 11am. Doesn't make sense. :?:
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tallywx
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#2000 Postby tallywx » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:53 am

I thought they were doing *.9 reductions of 700 mb flight level winds nowadays. In any case, doing a *.85 still gives solid cat. 3
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