Earl Advisories

[HURAKAN]

11:30 AM EDT TWO:

Satellite images indicate the tropical wave located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands has continued to become better organized. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional organization to occur...and a tropical depression could form later today or on Saturday. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the system for next several days as it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

[cycloneye]

This one will not be a fish system as TD#4 wlll be and all interests in the islands should watch the peogress of it.

[HURAKAN]

Cycloneye, do you think this system will have a similar track to the one Charley had through the Caribbean or this system will be someting different? Also, do you think TD #4 will be a fish or not?

[lilbump3000]

Well i think this system will track though the caribbean like charley did as that atlantic ridge going to build back in. Now with TD 4 the national hurricane center has the track the first 72 hours as a WNW track to NW track, then after that they bend the track back to W to WNW agan.

[opera ghost]

I remember looking for something interesting all through July... and Nothing. Then August gets here and we've had 2 hurricanes and a tropical storm- all of which affected land and #4 and #5 lined up to start playing as soon as Charley and Bonnie clear out....

My tracking pen needs a vacation.

[azsnowman]

I remember looking for something interesting all through July... and Nothing. Then August gets here and we've had 2 hurricanes and a tropical storm- all of which affected land and #4 and #5 lined up to start playing as soon as Charley and Bonnie clear out....

My tracking pen needs a vacation.

Yes indeed OG....what started out as a lack luster season, things SURE have changed over the past 2 weeks and have become VERY active, so much for a *bust* season. We too, are experiencing a upswing in monsoon activity and "I" was the one who said it was a BUST

I've stated this MANY times.....ALL my prayers are going out to those of you in the strike zone...."PLEASE take care!"

Dennis

[AL Chili Pepper]

I was checking out the GFS last night, and this must be the system that it had near Hispaniola in a week or so. Strong high pressure was forecast along the Atlantic coast, which could keep it moving WNW.

[tropicsgal]

Would there be any maps available for TD5 yet?

[Hyperstorm]

This one will not be a fish system as TD#4 wlll be and all interests in the islands should watch the peogress of it.

Cycloneye, I would suggest you never say never. Yesterday, I talked about the pattern not being right for this thing to turn away. This one (TD4) MUST be watched because all indications right now are that the subtropical ridge will strengthen and head later on westward. I told you yesteday to NOT let your guard down....I hope you haven't.

[msbee]

cycloneye
why do you say TD4 will be a fish but TD 5 won't be?

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

First advisory on TD#5 at 5 PM.

[bahamaswx]

yay.

[Hyperstorm]

Although quite expected and awaited for...it is still SHOCKING to see the SUDDEN increase in Activity in the Atlantic with 2 tropical depressions in 1 DAY and a BOMBING hurricane just offshore the Florida Peninsula....It gives me chills not knowing what to expect for the rest of the season...

Where are the people who were saying the season will be a weak one???

[cycloneye]

Hyperstorm I deleited one of your double posts but with the site so sow both went gone so post yours again.

[Guest]

especially since td 5 will probably strike land!!!

[bahamaswx]

Yep. Looks liek td5 will wind up in the GOM eventually.

[cycloneye]

Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 13, 2004


...Tropical Depression Five develops east of the Windward Islands...

watches may be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles by
Saturday morning. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and the eastern
Caribbean Sea should closely monitor this system over the next few
days.

At 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Tropical Depression Five was
located near latitude 8.9 north...longitude 46.2 west or about
1045 miles...1680 km...east-southeast of the Windward Islands.

The depression is moving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and
the depression could become a tropical storm by Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Repeating the 5 PM AST position... 8.9 N... 46.2 W. Movement
toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 PM AST.

Forecaster Stewart

[ChaserUK]

how an you tell that so early on...

[wx247]

Looks like the busy times will continue.

[Hyperstorm]

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 13, 2004



Satellite imagery indicates the vigorous tropical wave located about
910 nmi east-southeast of the Windward Islands has become much
better organized this afternoon. The system is being upgraded to
Tropical Depression Five based on a consensus Dvorak satellite
intensity estimate of t1.5...or 25 kt...at 18z...and much improved
banding features since that time. Upper-level outflow is fair in
all quadrants.

The initial motion estimate is 280/17. The depression is located at
a rather low latitude for tropical cyclone formation to occur...but
it is in the same general region that spawned now major Hurricane
Charley. The subtropical ridge to the north of the depression is
expected to remain intact throughout the forecast...and there is
excellent agreement among the various NHC models on the cyclone
moving in a general westward motion for the next 12 to 24 hours and
then west-northwestward after that. While the GFDL model makes a
sharp 30-40 degree right turn initially...the west-northwestward
motion after 12 hours appears quite reasonable. The official track
is close to the NHC model consensus. On this track...the cyclone
could pass through the Windward Islands in about 48 hours as a
tropical storm and be near Jamaica in 120 hours as a hurricane.

The SHIPS and GFDL intensity models show rather robust development
for the first 72 hours. The GFDL makes the cyclone a 75-kt
hurricane in 60 hours and then uncharacteristically levels off the
intensity after that. The SHIPS model brings the intensity up
steadily to 93 kt in 120 hours. Given the rather large size of the
wind field as noted in an earlier Quikscat overpass...my feeling is
that it may take the wind field longer than usual to contract down
in size...so the official intensity forecast is not as bullish as
the SHIPS model. However...the vertical shear is forecast to remain
very low...so some significant intensification is certainly
possible after the cyclone moves into the very warm central
Caribbean Sea in days 4 and 5.

Forecaster Stewart


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 13/2100z 8.9n 46.2w 30 kt
12hr VT 14/0600z 9.5n 48.7w 35 kt
24hr VT 14/1800z 10.3n 52.2w 40 kt
36hr VT 15/0600z 11.1n 55.7w 45 kt
48hr VT 15/1800z 12.1n 59.1w 55 kt
72hr VT 16/1800z 14.0n 65.5w 65 kt
96hr VT 17/1800z 16.0n 71.5w 70 kt
120hr VT 18/1800z 18.5n 77.0w 80 kt


$$