bad news, I have shifted track a couple tenths left

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Derek Ortt

bad news, I have shifted track a couple tenths left

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:41 am

right toward tampa now, raking the coast all the way from ft myers.

also, watch out in sc and the ec of florida

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl032004forecast.html


good news is I dont suspect more than a marginal 3 at this point
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#2 Postby Guest » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:43 am

Cat 3 minimal is hardly good news Ortt.
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Derek Ortt

#3 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:44 am

its a hell of a lot better than a strong 3 as I was thinking yesterday evening or a 4
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#4 Postby Stephanie » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:47 am

Derek Ortt wrote:its a hell of a lot better than a strong 3 as I was thinking yesterday evening or a 4


This is true and you DID start your topic title off as "Bad news..."
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#5 Postby The Dark Knight » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:47 am

Why did you shift your track left.....
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Josephine96

#6 Postby Josephine96 » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:49 am

Thanks for your update Derek.. I'll be watching the tracks closely to see how windwhipped I'm going to get here lol
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#7 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:50 am

Because the previous track started at 82.6 and this one at 82.9. There is no way the 18Z position from the 0900 forecast will verify
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#8 Postby sponger » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:53 am

I was worried we would wake up to 130 mph storm! Cat III stinks but its all relative now!
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#9 Postby The Dark Knight » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:54 am

Gotchya......
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#10 Postby Josephine96 » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:57 am

I'm just anxiously awaiting to see what Charlie will bring to my area here..

Hurricane Force winds I'm thinking.. along with wind gusts higher
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#11 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:14 am

Yeah...think cat4 is out of the question now. Low cat 3 probably. The eye is so small...not rapid development is coming from that.
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#12 Postby RevDodd » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:15 am

Hmm: One of those polka dots is sitting right on Fayetteville...how about you keep nudging Charley?
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Derek Ortt

#13 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:31 am

that looks to be the best case scenario for the Atlantic. A worst case is more time over water and possible regeneration
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#14 Postby Hyperstorm » Fri Aug 13, 2004 1:13 pm

Well, this just PROVES the point that NOTHING is SET IN STONE in the TROPICS. STRONG Cat. 4 now likely! Everyone must THANK GOD that the storm is making landfall in 2 HOURS...Yes, you must thank God. If this had stayed over water for 2-3 hours longer, we would have seen this go ALL THE WAY to......YES......CATEGORY 5....
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#15 Postby Guest » Fri Aug 13, 2004 1:16 pm

yup two bust.
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#16 Postby OtherHD » Fri Aug 13, 2004 1:26 pm

Hyperstorm, no, we would have seen an eyewall replacement cycle. Cat5's are VERY rare......
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#17 Postby Hyperstorm » Fri Aug 13, 2004 1:51 pm

OtherHD wrote:Hyperstorm, no, we would have seen an eyewall replacement cycle. Cat5's are VERY rare......


Actually, we wouldn't have. These EXPLOSIVE deepening phases last for 18-24 hours...
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Derek Ortt

#18 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 13, 2004 3:09 pm

The track error was within the margin of error. However, still no excuse. I flat out blew the forecast. I have to admit, I was paying more attention to the east coast threat than I was a slight deviation.

As for intensity, well, anything anyone decides to heap at me for that is incredibly well deserved.
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#19 Postby Nimbus » Fri Aug 13, 2004 3:19 pm

Which eyewall is going over Tampa bay? The storm surge would be worse if the strong side of the storm pushed water up Tampa bay. I live just west of Tampa should I evacuate?
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#20 Postby Hyperstorm » Fri Aug 13, 2004 3:28 pm

Nimbus wrote:Which eyewall is going over Tampa bay? The storm surge would be worse if the strong side of the storm pushed water up Tampa bay. I live just west of Tampa should I evacuate?


Although it is NEVER too late, I would recommend you stay where you are now. The winds will increase dramatically over the next few hours and you don't want to be caught off guard. The saving grace for the Tampa area is that worst of the storm should remain to its east. No significant surge is expected where you are so hold on...
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