Earl Advisories

ChaserUK · #21 Postby **ChaserUK** » Fri Aug 13, 2004 4:03 pm

here we go again!

#22 Postby **msbee** » Fri Aug 13, 2004 4:09 pm

yuck again!

schmita · #23 Postby **schmita** » Fri Aug 13, 2004 4:12 pm

Hey Barbara,
What's our location again? 18.0 N 63.2 W?

#24 Postby **wx247** » Fri Aug 13, 2004 4:19 pm

Oh goodness... I was looking at the latest model plots for TD 5... oh my is all I can say! :eek:

#25 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Aug 13, 2004 4:19 pm

Does anyone know if we will have another trough coming from the United States to the Gulf Coast by late next week? Because I don't want still to think about another Charley-alike track.

Aquawind · #26 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Aug 13, 2004 4:25 pm

UGH.............. :roll:

Wow 2 more TD's today..wildness...... :roll:

#27 Postby **wx247** » Fri Aug 13, 2004 4:26 pm

HURAKAN...from what I can tell (and I am a very amateur forecaster) it looks as if we may not have the trough in the GOM. Temps in that region are expected to warm again and it looks like high pressure may be in control.

#28 Postby **KBBOCA** » Fri Aug 13, 2004 5:25 pm

Eeeekk. I don't want to think about it. Nor I bet does Jamaica... and CERTAINLY not Florida. Fish Fish, please be a fish. We've had enough excitement this season.

bahamaswx · #29 Postby **bahamaswx** » Fri Aug 13, 2004 5:35 pm

Hello Lili.

#30 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Aug 13, 2004 7:23 pm

Does anyone have a link to the 00z models on Td5

#31 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Aug 13, 2004 7:42 pm

better organization and I expect td5 to be upgraded to TS status Saturday morning....Gfdl takes this system across the antilles and near S Fl and the Keys. The 18z GFS also bring this system very near florida and the 18z ETA also brings it across PR/DR. The key is if if comes west and stays in the carribean than a potential significant storm is possible over the western Gulf coast if its furthur N than E florida/Keys could be in line before entering the Gulf. Either way this will end up in the Gulf!!

#32 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Aug 13, 2004 7:47 pm

Just go to the following link and click for TD5.

<RICKY>

http://net-waves.com/weather/modelplot.htm

Patrick99 · #33 Postby **Patrick99** » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:01 pm

It looks to me like there's a weak upper level low to the NE of TD#5 a ways, dropping south. I don't know whether this would influence its track a bit north as it approaches the lesser Antilles, limit its development a bit, or have little effect?

#34 Postby **ncweatherwizard** » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:04 pm

Path looks very familiar through 120 hours; haven't looked past that really because I really took the time to carefully put this together.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /five.html

Website is back up and running.

Guest · #35 Postby **Guest** » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:14 pm

The slightest variations matter with td5 ight now- just the slightest bit more north than west and we could be looking at another florida landfall, although that currently appears unlikely.

Weatherboy1 · #36 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:19 pm

The HPC's forecast maps show a wave with an associated low in the general area of Key West/Cuba around day 6-7. That is likely TD#5. In short, it looks like FL could get a close call with this, though at this early stage, I imagine TD5 will probably stay south of the state and end up somewhere in the Gulf. There's no way to tell how strong this thing will get, of course. But I tell you, if it's another major, things could get ugly in terms of damage costs, lives lost, etc. for the 2004 season as a whole.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

#37 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:22 pm

Three majors were forecasted and we already have two with the only two hurricanes that have formed in the Atlantic.

#38 Postby **wlfpack81** » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:47 pm

Ugh looks like those in Texas, Lousiana, Mississippi may want to keep an eye out on what TD#5 does. If that ridge does strengthen as forecasted over the Gulf would seem Floriday while they may get a close call may not have to worry about a Bonnie/Charley like track.

Typhoon_Willie · #39 Postby **Typhoon_Willie** » Fri Aug 13, 2004 11:27 pm

Here is the url!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

Lindaloo · #40 Postby **Lindaloo** » Fri Aug 13, 2004 11:51 pm

I am sure it is subject to change. Still a long way out.

Earl Advisories

Any new model data for TD #5?

Lastes imagery continues to indicate

track

Tropical Depression Five Forecast 1--path similar to Charley

HPC day 7 map

TD#5 potential track...Man I hope this does not verify!

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