uh oh let the model maddness begin. NHC's GFDL takes Charley

[Guest]

here are A. and B. scenario

A. GFDL, NOGAPS, GFs all point west, to one extent or another

B. ETA, NGM, mm5 AF, all point east, to one extent or another

so which do you follow?

I follow plan B, due to the fact GFDL, NOGAPS, and GFs all underestimated the strength of the trough and associated s/w at the base of the long wave trough days before bonnie. this is why these particular models drew bonnie NE into georgia (north georgia!) and into the appalacians, instead of the center being sheared along with the thunderstorms, and the storm being shunted just north of east and fizzling.

ETA, NGM, mm5 all have been consistent and it would be a SHAM if the TPC and NWS offices did not use a compromise between the solutions of plan A and B in the least.

[Guest]

Bump, from Yesterday