TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORMS

[cycloneye]

Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on August 13, 2004



...Fourth tropical storm of the season forms in the far eastern
Atlantic...
Satellite imagery indicates that the tropical depression near the
Cape Verde Islands has strengthened and become a tropical storm.
At 11 PM AST...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 12.7 north... longitude 24.8 west or about
235 miles... 375 km... south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Danielle is moving toward the west near 14 mph ...22 km/hr...and
this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles
... 85 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Repeating the 11 PM AST position...12.7 N... 24.8 W. Movement
toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am AST.

Forecaster Franklin

From TD#4.So the CV season kicks with this storm.

[cycloneye]

Discussion.

August 13, 2004



the depression is showing improved organization...with a marked
increase in both banding and convective vigor near the center over
the past couple of hours. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB
at 0z were t2.5...and so the depression is upgraded to a Tropical
Storm.
Danielle is southeast of a mid-level ridge...which global models
weaken sharply over the next couple of days. This should allow the
cyclone to gradually turn to the northwest from its present
westerly track over the forecast period. The outlier from this
scenario is the NOGAPS...which weakens the cyclone and takes its
remnants westward. Given the current development trend this
alternative has been discounted. The official forecast is shifted
northward from the previous advisory but is still to the south of
most of guidance.

The shear is forecast to be low and water temperatures will be
reasonably warm for the next day or two. The official forecast
track takes Danielle over sub 27c water after that however.
The intensity forecast calls for steady development over the
next day or two and then little change thereafter...slightly below
the SHIPS guidance due to the northward track adjustment.

Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 14/0300z 12.7n 24.8w 35 kt
12hr VT 14/1200z 13.0n 26.6w 40 kt
24hr VT 15/0000z 13.7n 29.1w 45 kt
36hr VT 15/1200z 14.3n 31.6w 50 kt
48hr VT 16/0000z 15.0n 34.0w 55 kt
72hr VT 17/0000z 17.0n 38.5w 55 kt
96hr VT 18/0000z 19.0n 42.0w 55 kt
120hr VT 19/0000z 22.0n 46.0w 55 kt


It will be a fish storm.

[tropicsgal]

Is this TD5 going to get in the Gulf? I know it's an early call but is their a site that will show the different projected paths for this system?

[caribepr]

[quote="tropicsgal"]Is this TD5 going to get in the Gulf? I know it's an early call but is their a site that will show the different projected paths for this system?[/quote]

http://net-waves.com/weather/modelplot.htm

[tropicsgal]

Thank-You for this info. Not clear by models on track yet once it gets in the Gulf Hopefully get some information soon.

[soonertwister]

It's too early to call this a fish storm, just as 9 hours from landfall was too early to say that there was no way Charley would be a cat-4.

I'll see what happens, but tropical waves don't go polar. The best chance for Danielle not to go fish is if she encounters unfavorable winds and other conditions that dissipate her back into a wave.

History says anything that develops into a storm near the African coast is almost surely going to go fish - if it remains a TS or turns into a cane.

It's not a lock, but without weakening, it's considerably better than an 80-20 chance that the storm never reaches shores of the western Atlantic.