Charley Advisories

[ncweatherwizard]

Agree generally, but a couple things specifically I just want to clarify.

1) Charley can't cross 80W at 30N given the current motion.

2) TCs will always follow the coast unless something forces them inland OR out to sea DUH! (not sure where you're coming from here).

3) This thing is going in a straight line...this is an easy forecast (look at the trough and the ULL off the Mid-atl coast)...connect the dots and draw a line and just extend it...where you get west of Southport, NC--that's west and north of Wilmington. Keep drawing a straight line...right next to Norfolk Sat. PM

Like you insinuated, forget the models.
Like I said, draw a line.

[jaysonx]

Now we enter the second phase of this storm... It has exited the western Florida coast, weakened but still organized.. It will be interesting to see in the coming hours how much it is able to regroup itself before again making landfall in SC / NC. Remember, the SST's are still in the 80's and the gulf stream is more than enough to give this storm a big shot in the arm. I am not sure if we will see as rapid intensification as we saw this AM, but at this point I am not ready to rule anything out.

We sure bit off more than we could chew with this one, that's for sure!

[Stormchaser16]

Well eye is back.....

dry air filled in

[Guest]

00Z GFS is much much further east

If this is right alot of east coast folks are going to be seeing where is 5-10 inches of rains ? where are the winds? why are my skies p/cloudy?

[Guest]

and one other point --- Hurricanes that move up the east coast in a NNE or NE trajecotry has western side that is almost Non existant... The western side often is sucking in dry contintentla air from the Ohio Valley...

[Weather4Life23]

Looks like hes heading due north right now

[Scott_inVA]

00Z GFS is much much further east

If this is right alot of east coast folks are going to be seeing where is 5-10 inches of rains ? where are the winds? why are my skies p/cloudy?

Added 0Z GFS (displays AVN) to second map (SE CONUS close-Up)

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

Scott

[Wnghs2007]

URNT12 KNHC 140521
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/0521Z
B. 29 DEG 53 MIN N
80 DEG 56 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2989 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 225 DEG 79 KT
G. 139 DEG 30 NM
H. 993 MB
I. 9 C/ 3072 M
J. 13 C/ 3079 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 1/3 NM
P. AF980 1003A CHARLEY OB 02
MAX FL WIND 79 KT SE QUAD 0512Z.

[Stormchaser16]

SE quad

[Matthew5]

Thats a joke right? The winds over land before it moved out was over 80 mph. It has reformed it eye in its slowly tighting!

[Wnghs2007]

ummmmmmmmmmmm. Matthew there is no eye.

URNT12 KNHC 140521
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/0521Z
B. 29 DEG 53 MIN N
80 DEG 56 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2989 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 225 DEG 79 KT
G. 139 DEG 30 NM
H. 993 MB
I. 9 C/ 3072 M
J. 13 C/ 3079 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 1/3 NM
P. AF980 1003A CHARLEY OB 02
MAX FL WIND 79 KT SE QUAD 0512Z.


And pressure was 975 mb at 11.

[Stormchaser16]

Likely they havent made a pass thru the circ yet?

[Wnghs2007]

Likely they havent made a pass thru the circ yet?

they came from the NW of the thing and took a measurment in the SE Quad so they had to passed thru it by now.

[Matthew5]

Then what is that http://weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kjax.shtml ?

[Stormchaser16]

You cant tell me this thing doesnt have an eye lol

[Pebbles]

That's not an eye? *points to the radar* Admit it's not very pretty..but it looks like an eye *looks confused*

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kjax.shtml

[Wnghs2007]

Nope thats dry air intrusion and also its in Under 80 degree water anyway.

AND ITS PATH LOOKS TO CONTINUE NEAR THAT AS IT SKIRTS THE COAST

[Pebbles]

Well someone better tell that to the Lady on TWC then..She's been calling it an eye all night too *cackles*

You probably are right..just can't get my pea brain to accept it...still wants to say it's an eye.

Time for me to smile Cause I have no idea what's going on!

[bahamaswx]

Negative. That's an eye, not a dry air intrusion. I have no idea why they wouldn't state a reformation of the eye in the Vortex though... maybe they were pressed for time and knew the NHC already had such information.

[Wnghs2007]

`What I want to say is. DO YOU SEE ANY OF THOSE "Cooler than normal water temps in the SE Gulf that the NHC was talking about yesterday. Dont know where they got that from. Charley went nuts when he hit those nice 30 C + waters