
.DISCUSSION...
FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON A VERY WET NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA. DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS THE RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD AS SUGGESTED BY YESTERDAYS PROGS...AND WAS ALONG A
LINE FROM ROUGHLY ELKO NV THROUGH TUCSON THENCE SOUTHWARD. SATELLITE
SHOWS THEIR IS A TIGHT VORT MAX OVER LAS VEGAS AND THEN A WEAKER
UPPER LOW WEST OF SAN DIEGO. SAT PW VALUES AREA OVER 1.5 INCHES IN
SW AZ THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING TODAY FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA (AND HAVE ADDED THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND
GLEN/MARBLE CANYON ZONES) AS THE CONS LIST (WHICH IS EXISTING CLOUD
COVER AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER) IS SHORTER THAN THE PROS; VORT MAX
NOW NEAR LAS VEGAS REMAINS IN AREA...MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER THE
WATCH AREA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS ( THESE WINDS ALREADY SEEN IN 06Z FGZ
SOUNDING BTWN H7 AND H5)...LAST FEW DAYS THE WATCH AREA HAS SEEN
RAINFALL. ALSO NOTED THAT OUR SFC PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER
WRN AZ THIS MORNING A SIGN THAT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MOVING INTO
THIS AREA. TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES INTO FAR WRN ARIZONA.
PROGS DO HAVE THE DEEPER MOISTURE MVOING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES. MODEL WIND STREAMLINES SHOW SOME INTERESTING SHEAR GOING
ON OVER OUR STATE WHICH COULD HELP KEEP PRECIP GOING DURING THE
NIGHT HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
MIGHT BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND... LET US SEE WHAT HAPPENS TODAY.
AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WROTE...
PLEASE STAY INFORMED ABOUT THE WEATHER FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.
DL
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FROM NOON UNTIL 10 PM MST ZONES:
4/5/6/7/8/15/16/18/37/38.