Not "The Big One" For Central Florida

[tropicstorm]

Even though Charley still had some punch coming through Osceola, Orange & Seminole counties - the remnants of a once powerful Cat 4 Charley were really no more than a fast moving & short-lived supercell, which was once Charley's 145 mph eyewall. Yes, Charley's waning burst in Central Florida caused lots of trees to fall, extensive power outages and sadly, some deaths & injuries. But, this was not "the big one" that we will someday experience. A diminishing GOM hurricane (even a major) coming 150+ miles across Florida's peninsula could never deliver the knockout punch that we likely will someday experience from a monster major Atlantic hurricane (like Floyd) coming ashore on Cape Canaveral or Merritt Island. With only 40-50 miles inland, Central Florida counties would experience catastrophic damages & losses from such a Cat 4 or Cat 5 storm. Respect for Charley, but "the big one" for Central Florida is yet to come.

[stormchazer]

Even though Charley still had some punch coming through Osceola, Orange & Seminole counties - the remnants of a once powerful Cat 4 Charley were really no more than a fast moving & short-lived supercell, which was once Charley's 145 mph eyewall. Yes, Charley's waning burst in Central Florida caused lots of trees to fall, extensive power outages and sadly, some deaths & injuries. But, this was not "the big one" that we will someday experience. A diminishing GOM hurricane (even a major) coming 150+ miles across Florida's peninsula could never deliver the knockout punch that we likely will someday experience from a monster major Atlantic hurricane (like Floyd) coming ashore on Cape Canaveral or Merritt Island. With only 40-50 miles inland, Central Florida counties would experience catastrophic damages & losses from such a Cat 4 or Cat 5 storm. Respect for Charley, but "the big one" for Central Florida is yet to come.

Yes, and Tampa has once again dodge a bullet. It is only a matter of time. I hope we are ready.

[Aquawind]

Yeah Well...(sigh) This was the big one for many in SW Florida...Of course it will never be as Big as a Bigger Population getting rocked and it could always be worse..always..for anybody...anytime...There never will be a Big One..because it can Always be worse..

[Windsong]

Stormchazer....how are things in Lakeland? I have family there (in a trailer...) and have not been able to make contact.

Glad you are safe.

[Agua]

Yeah, have to agree with Aquawind. That one was pretty big for the folks who lived through it (those who didn't make it through it as well).

[SouthernWx]

Your right...as sad and tragic as hurricane Charley is, it was not the "big one". Like hurricane Andrew, Charley was a very small but intense hurricane; in fact, the intense eyewall of Charley was even smaller than Andrew was. That's why you see catastrophic damage in Punta Gorda but not that bad in Fort Myers, Sarasota, or Naples.

Let me warn you....as bad as a small, violent hurricane is, it would be many times worse for southern Florida is a 145 mph hurricane the size of Hugo, Floyd, or Carla were to strike the peninsula. There have been hurricanes just as intense as Charley to strike Florida in the past....except they were four times as large.

The large and severe Sept 1928 hurricane was about the same size as Floyd. It struck near West Palm Beach with 150 mph sustained winds, and recurved over Florida...passing near Lake Okeechobee and just west of Orlando then toward Jacksonville. It's now believed that winds in the greater Orlando area may have exceeded 130 mph in gusts. A repeat today would likely cause major damage along the entire Florida east coast from Broward county to the Georgia line.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm going to have to flat out disagre. This WAS the big one for central Florida. This cut a swatch of complete destruction from Sanibel to Orlando. The arial damages being shown so far are NOT of Punta Gorda and there is no word regarding the barrier islands. Those damages are for INLAND central Florida more than 50 yards from the coast.

[seaswing]

I guess we should say that it could have been the big one, OR NOT. There could be more like this, or worse. You cannot honestly say that Andrew was the big one until the next one follows. I believe that if people had heeded the warnings, or if people had a better sense of what it is really like to live here, maybe they wouldn't even live here! it is sad, very sad to see the destruction. Monday morning quarterbacking doesn't even seem to help because people in general do not listen or place their faith on others who cannot possibly predict an outcome. I think of Josephine96, and hope that he is alright. He was plain scared and even though everyone told him to 'mellow' out, maybe and hopefully he didn't panic too much but trusted his 'gut' and went to a shelter. Even though inland, it had to be bad where he was. We should never minimize someone else's concerns or fear. I even heard on this baord that we shouldn't be as concerned about Gulf storms as they do not get as big as Atlantic storms. Maybe that kind of perception gives a false sense of security?

I really don't mean to 'lecture' here but I am very upset about what has happened. I saw local mets interviewing residents of Cedar Key (close to me) their reasoning was that if you live near the water, sometimes you have to live in it! OMG, can you fathom what Cedar Key would look like about now? This is soooo typical. Even the long time residents said that. The problem is that even the long time residents had not experienced a storm like that since..... (maybe ya'll can fill in the blank here?) which storm caused damage like this to Cedar Key and when?

[stormchazer]

Stormchazer....how are things in Lakeland? I have family there (in a trailer...) and have not been able to make contact.

Glad you are safe.

Sorry I missed your post Windsong. I think things are good here. I have seen trees down, but no damage to structures. I also live in a mobile home and everything is fine.

Thanks! Lakeland was lucky.

[rbaker]

charley very similar to charley, small compact storm, but not alot of storm surge, except where it split captiva island in half. Pictures along the coast do not show alot of boat damage or flooding, but wind damage as was the case with Andrew. Because of the angle charley hit, it effected alot more people. Andrew's main destruction was in the Homstead area, then over the everglades which is basically swampland. Charley coming in in Charlotte county, and hitting alot more land, was more devasting. So in dollar damage and deaths already confirmed, Charley will go down as a worse storm than Andrew. Plus the area and price of homes have gone up considerably since 1992, and the area of captiva and sannibel are expensive areas.