Independent Investigation

[WESTCHESTERPA]

Outside agency should do routine investigation in cases like this where error in calculation by government agency leads to large number of casualties. Not suggestion that this could have been prevented, but nevertheless, there should be a thorough review of the processes in place at the Nat Hurr Center.

[opera ghost]

For the fourtieth time... This landfall was within the strike cone. It isn't a perfect science- but everyone within the strike cone should have been aware that a strike was possible.

[PurdueWx80]

A lot of it has to do with the National Weather Service as well. The Tampa office made very strong statements (i'll look for them to prove it in a sec) about the storm hitting near or just south of Tampa Bay. The NHC provides track guidance, with an error sidebar to show where the storm can go. I would guess the Tampa NWS will really have to look into their policy, as will FEMA and other gov't agency disaster planners.

[WESTCHESTERPA]

the fatal error, IMO, was not with regard to strike cone, but intensity.

[Lindaloo]

I am sorry, but there is just no way to predict intensity!! Heed all watches and warnings. PREPARE FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST!!!!

People who start this blame game mess amaze me sometimes!!

[Wolfman21]

the thing intensified from a Cat 2 to a Cat 4 about an hour or 2 before landfall. HOW do u predict that? Please tell me

[Lindaloo]

the thing intensified from a Cat 2 to a Cat 4 about an hour or 2 before landfall. HOW do u predict that? Please tell me

THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[The Big Dog]

the fatal error, IMO, was not with regard to strike cone, but intensity.

The intensity forecast is a center line, too. The NHC forecasts a margin of error above and below the center line on their intensities, just like they do with the forecast path. I don't know what the margins were on the 11AM advisory yesterday, but unfortunately, nobody in the media reports the margins anyway, and instead they only say that so-and-so is forecast to be Category X in 72 hours, or something like that. NHC's website still calls it an "experimental product," however, but it is available.

[PurdueWx80]

Forecasters in the gov't are well aware that storms can intensify that rapidly, and move off the projected course. Whether they do a poor job of making that aware to the public and gov't officials is up for debate. There is obviously some sort of systematic failure that occurred, because the area along the coast from Tampa to the keys should have been evacuated with a storm that close. I am not blaming anyone here, just stating that there will be many lessons learned (and new policies implemented) after a disaster like this - as there always are and probably will be.

[Wolfman21]

i mean (expletive deleted by moderator), im a 17 year old thats a senior in high school, and i moderately follow these things. I found out it had increased to a Cat 4 from a history teacher at my school yesterday in 4th period with about 20 min. in class left to go. When i got home about 40 minutes later, it was making landfall. These people were thinking it was only gonna be a cat. 2, and if it would have stayed a cat. 2, the damage would have been bad, but nowhere NEAR as bad as it is right now. For some reason, this thing cranked it up a few knots before he made landfall, and caught people totally by surprise. Whos fault is it? Nobodys except for the people who wanted to ride out a hurricane.

[Lindaloo]

Purdue, there was a hurricane warning all along the West Coast of Florida. Was that not sufficient enough???? What do hurricane warnings mean? Sit there and ride out a storm???

[LilNoles2004]

The NHC/TPC is NOT at fault in this case... NO WAY to predict the intensification of a hurricane from category 2 status to category 4 status in a few hours... People should have listened to the 'Mandatory Evacuations' and 'Hurricane Warnings', as these do have significant meaning.

[Stormsfury]

I am sorry, but there is just no way to predict intensity!! Heed all watches and warnings. PREPARE FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST!!!!

People who start this blame game mess amaze me sometimes!!

Exactly ...

[WESTCHESTERPA]

There may of been no way of predicting intensity or exact trajectory for that matter; however, I am advocating for an objective review of processes currently in place. Who is ultimately responsible for quality control at NHC? I would suggest that officials within the NHC would not have the objectivity to conduct this type of review. Similar to other government agencies in cases like this (i.e., catastrophies), an outside commission should be formed to review the NHC operating procedures, which would then file a public report.

[Lindaloo]

There may of been no way of predicting intensity or exact trajectory for that matter; however, I am advocating for an objective review of processes currently in place. Who is ultimately responsible for quality control at NHC? I would suggest that officials within the NHC would not have the objectivity to conduct this type of review. Similar to other government agencies in cases like this (i.e., catastrophies), an outside commission should be formed to review the NHC operating procedures, which would then file a public report.

I nominate this post as the most ridiculous one yet.

[PurdueWx80]

Do you really think that everyone who lives in FL or on any other coast will always heed a hurricane warning? Of course not. There is plenty of evidence that people think they can ride it out. There weren't manadatory evacuations everywhere either. Again, I am not blaming any particular person or agency, just saying there is clearly a systematic problem somewhere along the line that has got to be fixed. I'm sure it will be. That is all I'm saying, because I don't want to piss anyone else off.

[WESTCHESTERPA]

I'll pose the question again: Who is ultimately responsible for quality control at the NHC?

[The Big Dog]

There may of been no way of predicting intensity or exact trajectory for that matter; however, I am advocating for an objective review of processes currently in place. Who is ultimately responsible for quality control at NHC? I would suggest that officials within the NHC would not have the objectivity to conduct this type of review. Similar to other government agencies in cases like this (i.e., catastrophies), an outside commission should be formed to review the NHC operating procedures, which would then file a public report.

Those "outside commissions" often are little more than Congressional inquiries. Since NHC is funded by Congress, politicians would be reviewing scientific work. That's supposed to make us safer?

[weatherluvr]

I'll pose the question again: Who is ultimately responsible for quality control at the NHC?

WHY do you insist on pointing the finger at the NHC, when the track and intensity changes are something that cannot be refined to a needlepoint yet? That's why they use a CONE, NOT A LINE, for forecast tracks!

This is getting old quick.

[PurdueWx80]

Sorry, one more thing, I can't resist. Lindaloo - This post is not ridiculous because our government owes it to us to do as much as they can to protect us. Part of that is increasing the level of the science, so that predictions of changes like this can be made in advance. But, until that happens (if it happens), people living along coasts can not afford to sit out storms because they think, for whatever reason, that they won't be that bad.