Independent Investigation

[Lindaloo]

Sorry, one more thing, I can't resist. Lindaloo - This post is not ridiculous because our government owes it to us to do as much as they can to protect us. Part of that is increasing the level of the science, so that predictions of changes like this can be made in advance. But, until that happens (if it happens), people living along coasts can not afford to sit out storms because they think, for whatever reason, that they won't be that bad.

So what you are saying is that we need the government to do scientific study? Add this to my list someone. Sorry, I could not resist.

[WESTCHESTERPA]

I apologize for finger pointing; not really where I was trying to go with this discussion. There may be no need for a critical look at what happened with the forcasting in this case as it clearly appears the storm was in many ways a fluke with regard to how rapidly it intensified etc.
However, regardless of what happened with Charley, hypothetically, who would be reponsible for evaluating the quality of NHC analytical strategies etc?

[PurdueWx80]

The government funds our scientific studies. Also, the NHC is gov't, the NWS is gov't, etc. That's what I meant.

[opera ghost]

Increasing the level of science?

Shall we sign them up for a freaking time machine so they can accuratly predict?

Wake up- smell the coffee people. Weather forcasting is in it's infancy. They're doing everything they can and are well funded to try new things. It's like putting a toddler into a college class and expecting them to pass the exam. The information is out there- but the science is not exact enough- our understanding of the millions of complex processes to USE that information isn't there yet.

It won't be there in our lifetime... But it's always getting better.

[Lindaloo]

The government funds our scientific studies. Also, the NHC is gov't, the NWS is gov't, etc. That's what I meant.

**sigh**


WELL SAID OG!!

[goodlife]

There may of been no way of predicting intensity or exact trajectory for that matter; however, I am advocating for an objective review of processes currently in place. Who is ultimately responsible for quality control at NHC? I would suggest that officials within the NHC would not have the objectivity to conduct this type of review. Similar to other government agencies in cases like this (i.e., catastrophies), an outside commission should be formed to review the NHC operating procedures, which would then file a public report.

Uhhh..would this be kinda like the 9/11 commission???

[The Big Dog]

However, regardless of what happened with Charley, hypothetically, who would be reponsible for evaluating the quality of NHC analytical strategies etc?

NHC is under NOAA, as is NWS. Congress ultimately controls the purse strings. Here's a link that gives you a good idea of the various agencies under NOAA: http://www.noaa.gov/sitemap.html

[MWatkins]

I'll pose the question again: Who is ultimately responsible for quality control at the NHC?

I am going to assume by your question that you do not know much about the weather in general...and about tropial cyclones (Warm-core lows, like hurricanes) specifically. Otherwise you're just trying to get a rise out of people. That can be the only two options.

Hurricane track errors...even with the most well-behaved systems...is unavoidable. Not enough is currently known about the small, unmeasurable changes that can occur to affect track guidance. The earth is a large, dynamic system that cannot be fully resolved with all the super computers in the world put together.

And even if that were done...we could not get nearly enough observations into the model to rule out errors.

The forecast was within an acceptable variance for error with recurving systems...systems turing to the N then NE are amoung the most difficult to peg specifically...hence the HURRICANE WARNING for the ENTIRE southern HALF OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

If you are looking for someone to blame, don't look at the NHC. Look at the god-forsaken media and public apathy.

And to be honest...the forecast process does not need to become any more political than it already is.

The forecast was for a MAJOR HURRICANE at landfall...and the forecast discussions were clear that rapid intensification could occur.

Finally...there is not a Congressperson in Washington that could understand the dynamics. Not gonna happen.

See...the problem is that these types of things happened in the 30's through the 60's all the time. But recently the US has been very lucky.

This type of situation could occur this year...the US has been VERY lucky and that luck appears to be running out.

MW

[weatherluvr]

What the NHC SHOULD, and WILL, do is analyze every bit of data from radar, SST analyses, and dropsondes, leading up to the point of rapid intensification and track shift. Maybe the smoking gun can finally be found conclusively, to prevent tragedies like this.

[WESTCHESTERPA]

The NHC controls most of the primary resources with regard to collecting atmospheric data relevant to forcasting hurricanes. NHC also controls the analysis, interpretation and dissimenation of this information in the form of forcasts/prediction to news/media/local forcasters all over the country. The NHC actively dissuades private meteorlogical groups from making independent forcasts when it comes to hurricanes. This makes complete sense, as it would be potentially extremely dangerous to have 20 different groups trying to interpret and make forcasts etc. However, this places a tremendous amount of responsibility on the NHC, and with this, like it or not, there should be a healthy level of scrutiny when things go wrong..

[PurdueWx80]

Exactly my point PA. There is very clearly a problem somewhere along the chain of disseminating information. I again don't want to blame one single agency for anything, BUT if I wanted to take a stab at doing such a thing, I'd also blame the media. Storms like Charley have a way of jumping out at people by reminding them of what Mother Nature can do. Hopefully, next time everyone will be more prepared.

[Lindaloo]

You two just do not get it do you? You both need to read MWatkins post again!!

[SwampDawg]

ok...this one tops it. You have got to be frick'in kidding me. There should be an independent investigation?? I have heard it all. Just prepare! Everyone should have known that there was a possibility that this could strengthen. Hurricanes have been unpredictable for years. I beleive that we depend too much on models and not enough on common sense these days.

http://www.kmrc1430.com
I survived Hurricane Andrew, but my house didn't.

[seaswing]

Forecasters in the gov't are well aware that storms can intensify that rapidly, and move off the projected course. Whether they do a poor job of making that aware to the public and gov't officials is up for debate. There is obviously some sort of systematic failure that occurred, because the area along the coast from Tampa to the keys should have been evacuated with a storm that close. I am not blaming anyone here, just stating that there will be many lessons learned (and new policies implemented) after a disaster like this - as there always are and probably will be.

Maybe a few more cat 4 or 5 storms will make changes in the evacuation processes. I do believe that some of the reasons are political in nature. If the trends of major hurricanes continue, they will re-vamp the evacuation processes I believe. The officials do not want to make a frenzy' situation so they 'downplay' it sometimes. As some of you may recall, there was an EXCELLENT forecaster who died last year, his name was John Hope. I met him once when he was at a trade show I attended. He was very knowledgeable in hurricane forecasting and worked for NHC. He then went to TWC. His style of forecasting was to 'some' being an alarmest, he was then 'assisted' by another hurricane expert who also worked for NHC. After a time, we saw less of John Hope and more of the other guy (who is still there) because TWC considered him an 'alarmest' that is too bad because he was excellent on both counts, as a forecaster and someone who got the severity of a storm out to the general public in a manner that was clear and easy to understand.

[PurdueWx80]

Linda - read my last post and MW's. I am in total agreement with him/her, I don't get what your problem with our OPINION is, though.

[Mello1]

Purdue, there was a hurricane warning all along the West Coast of Florida. Was that not sufficient enough???? What do hurricane warnings mean? Sit there and ride out a storm???

I think that this discussion is quite valid in that once the death toll starts to come out (and I'm reading on other sites that it's possibly in the hundreds), the question of how predictions are announced in the media has to be addressed.

The way storms are being tracked today is the very reason why many more lives are being saved in modern times. Yet, what will be said about Hurricane Charlie if the death toll does exceed that of Hurricane Andrew? People will start to ask these questions, so it's best to look at ways to improve an already excellent tracking system.

It's no question that the emphasis on where this storm would hit was clearly focused on the Tampa Bay area. Mandatory evacuations were made in this area, while leaving other areas in a voluntary status. Unfortuately, a lot of people evacuated into the storm's path once the storm took the turn south of TB. The media harped and harped on this and Fla. officials quite frankly geared their resources towards that possibility. So I can see how easy it would be for others within the cone area to relax a bit. Now that we have seen how a worst case sceanero can play out, other solutions to how to best protect life will have to be formulated.

I agree with my friend from Purdue (I'm a PU grad also), that there will be a lot of lessons learned coming out of this event.

[coriolis]

Just when we think we have mother nature figured out, she fools us. Meterology is a profession, and as professionals, they render an opinion, based on education, experience, and professional judgement. As long as a "standard of care" is met, and there's no negligence, professionals can be wrong.

[themusk]

Purdue, there was a hurricane warning all along the West Coast of Florida. Was that not sufficient enough???? What do hurricane warnings mean? Sit there and ride out a storm???

I think that this discussion is quite valid in that once the death toll starts to come out (and I'm reading on other sites that it's possibly in the hundreds), the question of how predictions are announced in the media has to be addressed.

Agreed, but the problem is not with the NWS. The problem is with poor quality journalism (not something the NWS has any control of) and, in some instances, with less-than-optimal emergency planning (something that happens on a local level).

[Lindaloo]

Linda - read my last post and MW's. I am in total agreement with him/her, I don't get what your problem with our OPINION is, though.

No problem with your opinion as long as you do not have a problem with mine. Thanks!

All I will say to you Mello1 is I agree with you about the bloodhounds, I mean the media.

[Mello1]

Agreed, but the problem is not with the NWS. The problem is with poor quality journalism (not something the NWS has any control of) and, in some instances, with less-than-optimal emergency planning (something that happens on a local level).

I didn't say that the problem was with the NWS. Perhaps others are saying that. My point is with how the information is disseminated. I certainly understood the NHC's explaination of probability risk within the cone area, but that information was lost in translation for a lot of folk. Also, I do wonder why a mandatory evac wasn't issued for anyone living in a mobile home within the cone area. I do wonder about that.