Earl Advisories

[cycloneye]

Finnally as it was needed.

[Derek Ortt]

my heart just is not in it all that much after yesterday, but I'll still give it my best shot

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl052004forecast.html

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 4

Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 14, 2004

...Depression near tropical storm strength...tropical storm watches
issued...

At 11 am AST...1500z...the government of Barbados has issued a
tropical storm watch for Barbados and St. Vincent...and the
government of St. Lucia has issued a tropical storm watch for St.
Lucia. Interests around the eastern Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of this system.

At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression
Five was located near latitude 10.4 north...longitude 52.2 west or
about 530 miles... 855 km...east-southeast of Barbados.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph
...37 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm
later today.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Repeating the 11 am AST position...10.4 N... 52.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 23 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 PM AST.

[chrisnnavarre]

current track would have him entering the Gulf around Thursday-Friday.....(if he doesn't go visit Mexico)...

Does anyone have any outlook as to approaching fronts, etc...that may steer this storm during this time-frame, if in fact he does enter the Gulf??? I found this for Wed...




and this one for Thursday...



Are those Lows dipping intot the Gulf and wouldn't this make the North Central GOM vulnerable?

[lilbump3000]

From what i hear there isnt going to be a front this time.

[Dean4Storms]

Yes, as you've posted above there is a another front forecasted to be over the central US come mid-late next week and there is potential for this front to pick up Earl in the GOM. The timing will determine if he does indeed get picked up and where he heads. My own personal thoughts are from LA eastward from this point.

[MONTEGUT_LA]

where would ya'll think TD #5 will land? I know it's far way and it's hard to say. I do agree that earl will be a major.

We were hit hard by lili with 5-6ft of water in some resident's homes. My parents were going to stay home. Very Glad they came with us to the selter. My prayers go out to the people in fl.

[zoeyann]

MONTEGUT_LA-hey I'm in chauvin (just across the levee) . Way to early to say what will happen with Earl. But pay close attention to the board. These guys are awesome at getting information out to others and terrific at anaylizing these storms.

[PurdueWx80]

First guess - Texas or Mexico coast. The Atlantic ridge will rebuild west and hook up with the western American ridge as the major trough in the east pulls out. That should keep 5/Earl on a WNW track. Of course, it is too far out to say whether it will be disrupted by Hispaniola, Cuba, Jamaica or the Yucatan, but if it makes it to the gulf, there is the possibility that it could intensify rapidly. Like I said in a previous post, the waters in the western Gulf are drastically warmer than those in the east. If those waters supported a Cat 4, then it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that another Cat 4 or even 5 is possible further west. There are a lot of things that come into play, but the pattern looks to favor a threat to the Mexican or Texas coast late next week. Even if 5 doesn't do this, later storms will have to be watched for (obviously).

[PurdueWx80]

One more thing, it will have a brush with the South American coast in a few hours. It is pretty rare for a system to be so far south, but as long as the wave/depression survives that, then my ideas above are valid. Otherwise, the land will prevent inflow for a bit.

[lilbump3000]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?

[HURAKAN]

[Brent]

That's 5 named storms in the last 14 days.

I can't get that song out of my head "Goodbye Earl" LOL

It sounds nerdy and rednecky.

[PurdueWx80]

Haha...I can't either. Makes me think it's headed for Texas! Ya know, Dixie Chicks - Texas. Anyway, it has a long way to go before it gets there. There is hardly any organized convection now and it's moving right towards South America. I have a feeling it won't organize much until it gets away from SA and into the central Caribbean. It's also moving really quickly.

[lilbump3000]

Don't let the quickness fool you. You seen what charley done.

[southerngale]

Haha...I can't either. Makes me think it's headed for Texas! Ya know, Dixie Chicks - Texas. Anyway, it has a long way to go before it gets there. There is hardly any organized convection now and it's moving right towards South America. I have a feeling it won't organize much until it gets away from SA and into the central Caribbean. It's also moving really quickly.

Hey! We don't claim the Dixie Twits!

[Wnghs2007]

God must of heard us whinning about not getting any storms and got ticked at us and is giving it to us big time now.

[~SirCane]

I've got a bad feeling about Earl. I think it's headed for the Central Gulf Coast. It's going to depend on the timing with the front coming down. The front, however, isn't likely going to be quite as strong as the last one.

For the sake of us all-let's hope it lands at an area that's scarcly poplulated. That's what CAT 4 Bret did in 1999.

[chris_fit]

It's WAY to early to say where it will go in the Gulf. I believe everyone that is making guesses on where it will make landfall, if at all are TOTALLY guesses. Models couldnt predict Charley's easterly jog 30 min before he did it, let alone a landfall of a system ~week or so away.

~Chris

[BayouVenteux]

Here's a wishcast in the truest and well-meaning sense of the word for, short of doing a Debby, a landfall in a sparsely populated area of the Mexican coast south of Tampico as a struggling borderline Cat 1. that quickly moves inland and dissapates, bringing some much-needed rain to parts of the SW.

p.s.: I am anxiously awaiting word from my Mom and Dad as they have flown back to FMY and are attempting to return to their house in Ft. Myers Beach this afternoon. I'm encouraged by what info I have picked up from the excellent channel 2 news stream, but my heart aches for everyone up in Charlotte County and others who were in Charley's direct path.