My rant ...

[Stormsfury]

First of all, predicting intensity sometimes is like picking Powerball numbers ... and rapid intensification cycles can be recognized, but not pinpointed precisely. Even with all the technology at our disposal, the fact of the matter is Mother Nature reigns supreme, and in Charley's case, there were such microscale features which led to the rapid intensification that NO MODEL could foresee that ... much, much too small scale.

For pete's sake, people, remember, how small Bonnie was and it wasn't initialized by several models b/c of its micro size? See my point? Predicting rapid intensification cycles is as difficult as telling someone EXACTLY where a tornado will develop 12 hours in advance ... just isn't going to happen in this day and age ...

Charley went well within the cone of probability, and warnings were hoisted with plenty of lead time. There were plenty of RECON OBS to keep us up to date ... and for the 11 am EDT debacle yesterday. What probably happened ...

The advisory was probably written BEFORE RECON got back in Charley ... and the discussion reflected that at the TIME of ISSUANCE, winds were still 95 kts on the 8 am EDT dropsonde ... again, this discussion was probably already prepared BEFORE the new vortex message ... and when the RECON messages got back to the NHC, NHC acted very quickly ...

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATE THAT CHARLEY REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 360/16. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MOTION ACCELERATING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AFTER WHICH CHARLEY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT. THE
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY IS FOR WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE
ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST AS CHARLEY GOES BY AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ALERT TO THIS POSSIBILITY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS ALSO EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST.

AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE AT ABOUT 12Z INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS ARE STILL NEAR 95 KTS. A CLOSED 10-MILE DIAMETER EYEWALL
PERSISTS AND THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED 5 MB TO 965 MB DURING THE
PAST TWO HOURS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST. THEREAFTER THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS SHOW THE
STRONG WINDS EXPANDING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM AS IT MOVES
NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST.

Another thing ... it is the INDIVIDUAL(S) responsibility to protect life, limb, and property in the face of disaster, and if you do NOT do so in that face of danger, and it comes to bite you on the butt, you have only yourself to blame ...

NHC did NOT blow this storm ...

[goodlife]

Hooray!!! Clap clap clap...

[Lindaloo]

EXCELLENT POST!!! BRAVO!!

[ALhurricane]

I was about to post a new topic saying exactly what you said SF. The bottom line is the affected areas has Hurricane WARNINGS well in advance of the storm. If everybody would stop focusing on the exact points forecast and pay more attention to the forecast cone, then a lot of these problems may be prevented.

There is no reason those mobile home parks in Punta Gorda should of had people in them. If you are in a mobile home and you are in a hurricane warning area, you need to get out. Don't get me wrong, my heart goes out to everybody that has been affected, especially those people that lost their lives. Unfortunately, we have to learn some of life's biggest lessons the hardest way imaginable.

[PurdueWx80]

I agree, very well put. It will be interesting to see if 4-km runs of the WRF (for those of you who don't know, it's a newer mesoscale model still in development at NCAR which promises to be a top dog at NCEP in a couple of years) will bring Charley in where he did at the strength he was. The re-runs of Isabel last summer were almost perfect. It's 4-km resolution (still too high for most computers to run operationally) would've definitely picked up Bonnie as well.

[Steve Cosby]

Another thing ... it is the INDIVIDUAL(S) responsibility to protect life, limb, and property in the face of disaster, and if you do NOT do so in that face of danger, and it comes to bite you on the butt, you have only yourself to blame ...

NHC did NOT blow this storm ...

100,000% agree. Stated better than I could...

[stormchazer]

Thank you SF!

[msbee]

excellent post!
I couldn't agree more
I have 2 questions though. Bear with me if they are stupid queestions.

1. what caused Charley to veer unexpectedly right and go inland more South than predicted? and could this have been better predicted in any way?

2. whenever NHC predicts the path of a storm, there is always a cone showing the range of possibile strike areas.
Obviously even though Charely veered, he still struck within the cone. But why was that cone commented on?
In watching TWC, Steve Lyons kept saying as though it was a given that this thing was going to strike the Tampa area. Now I know and most of us on this board know..that there is always a margin of error.
Don't you think that for the ordinary man/woman in the street the margin for error needs to be more highly emphasized??

Don't you think that TWC and NHC need to say over and over again that anyone in the cone area could be in danger..that we are not always 100% right..that this thing could shift even if we think it won't.that we may be slightly off what we think is going to happen....
I really think this could have been emphasized more strongly in the hours leading up to landfall.

[Steve Cosby]

1. what caused Charley to veer unexpectedly right and go inland more South than predicted? and could this have been better predicted in any way?

Friction of the coast was labeled as one reason that seems to make as much sense as anything.

2. whenever NHC predicts the path of a storm, there is always a cone showing the range of possibile strike areas.
Obviously even though Charely veered, he still struck within the cone. But why was that cone commented on?
In watching TWC, Steve Lyons kept saying as though it was a given that this thing was going to strike the Tampa area. Now I know and most of us on this board know..that there is always a margin of error.
Don't you think that for the ordinary man/woman in the street the margin for error needs to be more highly emphasized??

It is my humble opinion the news media, TWC/Steve Lyons included, did more harm than good in this case because of the constant harping on Tampa Bay. Yes, it was important to point to because of the population but there are too many people scratching their heads this morning saying "it wasn't supposed to come this way".

[Stormsfury]

It is my humble opinion the news media, TWC/Steve Lyons included, did more harm than good in this case because of the constant harping on Tampa Bay. Yes, it was important to point to because of the population but there are too many people scratching their heads this morning saying "it wasn't supposed to come this way".

The battle for ratings and too much coverage was a detriment in this instance, and I have to agree with this ... The bottom line, again, is that Mother Nature is in control of the weather, and not man ...

SF

[Steve Cosby]

The battle for ratings and too much coverage was a detriment in this instance, and I have to agree with this ... The bottom line, again, is that Mother Nature is in control of the weather, and not man ...

Somebody was calling for a congressional investigation. Maybe this is what should be concentrated on and let the NHC deal with current threats rather than Congressional threats.

[msbee]

If we all agree that the constant harping on Tampa Bay was a detriment and that the battle for ratings in an issue, then isn't it somehting the NHC should look into? Shouldn't they then have a publicity affairs department givign updates and stressing probabilites since they are the experts?
Does NHC rely too much on letting the media do the coverage when maybe the media is not 100% responsible or accurate in their reporting?

[Steve Cosby]

Does NHC rely too much on letting the media do the coverage when maybe the media is not 100% responsible or accurate in their reporting?

But, yet, the media lobbyists would probably not allow the government to take over "their" job.

NHC does the weather. The media needs to be woken up.

[Stormsfury]

If we all agree that the constant harping on Tampa Bay was a detriment and that the battle for ratings in an issue, then isn't it somehting the NHC should look into? Shouldn't they then have a publicity affairs department givign updates and stressing probabilites since they are the experts?
Does NHC rely too much on letting the media do the coverage when maybe the media is not 100% responsible or accurate in their reporting?

Media outlets spun it up with TAMPA, TAMPA, TAMPA ... when the focus should have been the WINDOW (or the CONE) ... also, the problem, appears to be that the media did NOT keep abreast of the minute-to-minute changes when the NHC was vigorously updating and relaying new information as quickly and promptly as they could ... the NHC cannot play the role of news journalists. They have a much more important role to play and that's tropical meteorology and forecasting to the best of their ability ... it is the responsibility of the media to pass on the information, and be as ACCURATE as possible ... NHC did the best job they could do to be as accurate as possible. I expect no less from the news media outlets ...

On a side note, I must commend the local news media outlets here in Charleston this morning on their coverage ... no spins, no hype, just the facts, and passing on information as they received it ...

SF

[msbee]

good point SF
of course,the focus should have been the window!
but it didn't happen, and what is scary,it probably won't happen again another time.

we know that most of the media does not do the job as accurately as they should or could. We also know the NHC has its hands full just analyzing the storm data.
so that means everything stays the same?
This is where the problem really lies.

[CharlieGirl]

From someone 20 miles from "ground zero", there is no reason anyone would have been anywhere near the coast except for the fact that they blatently ignored the warnings. Our local media coverage was SUPERB, with the ABC and NBC affliates joining forces to provide round the clock coverage starting Friday morning, and simulcasting on at least 5 different radio stations. The information we've recieved from them has been complete, accurate and thorough.

Local Police, fire and ems and emergency management has been TOTALLY on the ball in Lee and Collier counties, starting well before the storm. On Thursday night we even had local fire going street by street in our neighborhood announcing the evacuation order over their loud speakers and answering questions. After the storm they were immediately out assessing damage and securing dangerous situations.

When the 11:00 NHC statement came out, our local broadcasters took issue, and continued to contradict the NHC regarding intensity and the early NE turn. I was very impressed, and we all knew it was coming towards us LONG before the NHC admitted it, because our local mets told us so.

So don't consider us misguided or misled here in SW FL. We had the info we needed and were totally prepared for the possibility of taking this storm. No one here has an excuse to claim they were taken by surprise. I do feel for those a bit further inland, though, who generally think they are safe from storms, as I imagine I too would have not been prepared for this strong of a storm.

Now, if someone could just tell me when the electricity might be back on at my house, we can get on with things.

Cheers!

[LAwxrgal]

Charliegirl, welcome to Storm2K and a great 1st post!

[KBBOCA]

Charliegirl, so glad you're safe and glad to hear about how well things were handled. Undoubtedly many many lives were saved in the area. Good to hear from someone who was there.

[spaceisland]

Local meteorologists... especially those with years of experience dealing with hurricanes... should have some freedom to put into layman's terms the implications of NHC info... NOT just read the script. (even contradicting a report, if it is obvious that the data is outdated). My hope is that one very important line will be added to the script by media outlets the next time there is a hurricane probability graphic put on the air: "REMEMBER CHARLEY."

That line alone may save lives...

[GulfBreezer]

For those of us who have followed these storms for many years, this unpredictable outcome of Charley is not shocking. How many tims has a storm surprised us?? SF, your post is awesome and people just need to realize that it is very easy to point fingers, just remember when pointing a finger, there are 4 pointing right back at you. Common sense and being as informed as possible are the best tools for anyone in a storm's path. There are no excuses for ignorance when dealing with Mother Nature..........she is very tempermental andwill ALWAYS do as she pleases, despite our BEST efforts.