5pm-Tropical Storm Earl, Warnings issued

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT AUG 14 2004

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...AND THE
GRENADINES...THE TRINIDAD-TOBAGO METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES HAS ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. INTERESTS AROUND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS
INTENSIFIED INTO TROPICAL STORM EARL.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.5 WEST OR ABOUT 375
MILES... 605 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH
...39 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE STORM WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON. WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WILL BE DETERIORATING TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...10.8 N... 54.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.

[Guest]

Here we go again...................

[Brent]

Yes. Nearing the Yucatan Channel in 5 days.

TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

AFTER A BRIEF INTERRUPTION IN THE DEVELOPMENT TREND THIS MORNING...
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY
WITH IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES...AND DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM
BOTH SAB AND TAFB. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS
TIME. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR EXCEPT TO THE EAST WHERE IT
APPEARS RESTRICTED. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING SO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS
PREDICTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
EXCEPT NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHERE IT IS MORE CONSERVATIVE
THAN THAT MODEL.

EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY ALONG A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST
COURSE. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. THUS THE
FORWARD SPEED IS SLOWED BY 4-5 DAYS. AS ALWAYS...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST POSITIONS AT THESE EXTENDED
TIMES.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 10.8N 54.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 12.0N 57.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 13.4N 61.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 14.7N 65.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 15.9N 68.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 18.0N 75.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 19.5N 80.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 21.0N 84.0W 80 KT

[LAwxrgal]

Here we go again...................

*whew*

Another busy week in the Tropics. Let's hope he doesn't become a monster like his big brother.

[Guest]

were discussing earl in chat and it could have winds of 145 mph as it enters the gulf!

[chris_fit]

were discussing earl in chat and it could have winds of 145 mph as it enters the gulf!

WAY to early to tell, even whether or not it'll enter the gulf

[Guest]

were discussing earl in chat and it could have winds of 145 mph as it enters the gulf!

[Skywatch_NC]

And why speculate already on Cat 4 winds for Earl?? It's 5 to 6 days out folks.

Eric

[mf_dolphin]

Forecasting the potential winds out that far in advance is nothing more than a guess. Why not go ahead and call it a cat 4 now. People this forum is for education and awareness not blind speculation.

[MWatkins]

It could do anything. The NOGAPS model has shifted slightly to the north and the TPC track is slower and slightly to the right of the previous one out to day 5. This suggests that while there will be no strong trough dropping in to turn Earl...it could gain some latitude as it approaches.

Of course...there is considerable uncertanity about days 4 and 5. Earl could be anywhere from the north coast of Houduras to the Florida East Coast in 5 days. It's best to remember...especially after what just happened...that these extended forecasts are for guidance only.

MW

[Stratosphere747]

I was about to say...145...Just because that is what Charley hit now that means Earl will get that high...I think we have had our fill of 145mph storms for a few years..At least I hope...

[Anonymous]

Charley went against all the climatology, as far as Hurricanes go. If you were to look back on all the storms for this time of year that originated where Charley did, there was only 1 other storm, out of about 10, that took a similar path. What does this mean? It means a high probability that Earl will find himself over the northern Yucatan, pushing WNW toward the lower Texas coast. The scenario with Charley was typical of late September, or later systems, with deep troughs digging way down into the GOM. Record low temperatures all along the Gulf coast the past few days, were indicative of late September type fronts. Low 80's for high temps. in New Orleans, and humidity of about 50% for mid-August, is absurd/unbelieveable! But I am not at all complaining, because it was our saving grace and unfortunate situation for the folks in Florida.

Beware lower Texas and upper Mexico coasts.

[adelphi_sky]

Charley faked us out many times. I can remeber when it was by PR. It was supposed to go over it. But it said "SIKE", and went around it. And that was just hours from the latest plots I do believe. I have to remind myself not to get caught up in the straight line forecast plots I see. These things will weeble wobble any way they wish. But as I read before, as long as they stay within the margin of error, we know what to expect.

[HURAKAN]

TS Earl seems to be in a bursting stage right now, it looks it's trying to get better organized while running like they will do in Athens.

[Stormchaser16]

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY.

WOOPS lol, guess they are still stuck on charley in this advisory

[LaBreeze]

Try low temps in the upper 50's and 35% humidity for the Louisiana coast. Very unusual indeed!!