Well, guess what ... turns out wasn't really much of a ...

[Stormsfury]

dry phase of the MJO after all ...

[quickychick]

I'm embarrassed to ask, but can you point me to a link/site that would explain the MJO to an amateur like me? Many thanks.

NJCane, thanks! That is le cool.

[NJCane]

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/not ... 2/mjo.html

[MGC]

Come on SF, the MJO don't mean squat when a TC forms......I've watched the MJO the past few seasons and TC formation is split nearly 50-50 when MJO phase is considered.....MGC

[Aquawind]

Well that maybe gives me some Hope the MJO is relevant..lol

[Stormsfury]

Come on SF, the MJO don't mean squat when a TC forms......I've watched the MJO the past few seasons and TC formation is split nearly 50-50 when MJO phase is considered.....MGC

Yeah, yeah, yeah ... I'd knew you would post that ...

But anyway, yes, a wet phase MJO isn't the only thing that induces TC development, and yes, you make a point, since the MJO phase was NEG (wet) in the E PAC and we've seen NO activity since the ATL has gone ape.

But HAD we been in a drier phase, I don't think Bonnie would have ever developed into a TD in the first place. Remember, during the wet phase of the MJO, the ITCZ becomes quite active and usually a monsoon trough forms in response ... (greater chance for a wave to develop a circulation with westerly winds south of the monsoon trough in many cases) ...

The last several waves, though, we've seen develop have been ... well, from very healthy waves coming off the coast of Africa ... Bonnie (although, a struggle), Charley, Danielle (almost immediately), and Earl ... and so far, much along the lines of what I have been expecting thi season ...

SF