Tallahassee,FL AFD. Earl looks ominiously similar to.....

[Wnghs2007]

..........BONNIE!!!!!!!

FXUS62 KTAE 141842
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

.CURRENTLY...SKIES RANGE FROM SUNNY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE SECTIONS
OF CWFA. TEMPS IN LOW 80S...DEW POINTS FROM AROUND 60 SE ALA TO LOW
70S SE BIG BEND. WINDS FROM N 5-10 MPH SE ALA TO E 5 MPH SE BIG
BEND. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS DIXIE COUNTY BUT MOIST
PRECIP HAS BEEN SHUNTED SEWD OF OUR CWFA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE CONTS FORM ERN MOST CANADA
S INTO GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING SWLY STEERING FLOW. CHARLEY HAS
WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES N/NE NEAR 30 MPH OVER N
CAROLINA. NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CHARLEY
TO ACROSS NE FLA AND INTO SE MOST SECTIONS OF SE BIG BEND. N OF THE
FRONT..HIGH PRESSURE AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR BUILDING IN RAPIDLY
SEWD. SATTELITE WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND BACK
SIDE OF CHARLEY. THE TROUGH AND HI POSITIONS EXPLAIN THE
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CONTRASTS NOTED ABOVE. FORECAST QUESTION IS
FUTURE POSITION OF FRONT/TROF AND HOW MUCH OF CWFA REMAINS IN WARM
SECTOR. WITH CHARLEY MOVING OUT..LACK OF PUSH FOR TROF..AND GUIDANCE
SHOWS BOUNDARY DRIFTING E AND THEN BACK W NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS
DIFFER NOTICEABLY WITH GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SHIFTING FRONT
BACK WWD PLACING MORE OF OUR AREA IN WARM SECTOR/SW LO LEVEL FLOW.
HARD TO JUSTIFY GFS SCT-LIKELY POPS AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS DRIER ETA.
THUS FIVE ZONE ZFP WITH FLA DIVIDED W-E WITH WDLY SCT-MID SCT BREAK
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM...UPR TROF TO FINALLY LIFT NEWD WITH RIDGING MOVING EWD
OVER ERN CONUS MID-WEEK. TIME TO LOOK EWD AT TD FIVE..POSITION
BRINGS IT TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AND INTO NW CARIB DAY 5. TRACK LOOKS
OMINOUSLY LIKE BONNIE.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL GRADIENTS CONT TO WEAKEN. AFTERNOON BUOYS SHOW WINDS
UP TO 4 FEET AND 10 KNOT SEAS OUTER WATER..LESS NEARSHORE. WILL CONT
W/E SPLIT TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS ERN WATERS IN
WAKE OF CHARLEY.

&&

.FIRE WX...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TLH 68 90 69 90/10 30 10 30
PFN 69 88 73 89/05 10 10 20
DHN 63 87 66 89/05 00 00 20
ABY 67 89 66 91/10 10 05 20
VLD 70 88 69 90/10 30 10 30
CTY 71 88 70 90/30 50 30 40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

[NorthGaWeather]

If this storm does come up this way it'll be bad along the FL coast.

[Guest]

oh no! earl could be alot stronger than bonnie too!

[Wnghs2007]

oh no! earl could be alot stronger than bonnie too!

Heck this thing could top Charley. BUT. It is way. And when I mean way. More like Extrememly to early to estimate strength of the storm. For all we know it could only be a TS. but who knows. Man this is going to really destroy the US and Floridas Economy if this happens.

[~SirCane]

All I know is, all of us along the Gulf Coast have ANOTHER interesting and nail biting week ahead.

[Steve Cosby]

From the 8PM AST advisory:

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH

Moving pretty doggone fast. That will inhibit major development for a while, won't it?

[Wnghs2007]

From the 8PM AST advisory:

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH

Moving pretty doggone fast. That will inhibit major development for a while, won't it?

Ummmmmmm. Charley was moving at 26 MPH. And it really didnt inhibt development that much. Its definatley orgainizing right now.

[~SirCane]

Charley was moving that fast for quite a while as a TS.

[SouthernWx]

Looking at the medium range model guidance, there is one huge difference between this upcoming week and last week: no extremely deep trough...

The trough that caught and recurved hurricane Charley was extremely strong and deep for August. This morning near Atlanta, I recorded a low temperature of 54°...the lowest temperature I've ever recorded in August, and I've been a dedicated weather watcher since 1974 (ATL reached 56° this morning, which broke the old record for 8/14 by five degrees...and was only 1° above the all-time record low for Atlanta in August). In fact, the past nine days have been incredibly cool for Georgia in mid-summer....averaging over 8° below normal at my suburban Atlanta location (average high the past nine days was only 79°--normal is 89°). It took an early October-like trough to bring us this unseasonably mild weather...and the same to recurve a hurricane near Jamaica.

This week looks a little different...but if Earl develops into a strong hurricane as the SHIPS proggs, it does appear to be a serious threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
By late Thursday, Earl is forecast to be a 90 mph hurricane located just south of western Cuba. At that time, it appears the high pressure ridge will weaken as a trough approaches from the southern plains. However, this system appears to be of Pacific origin...not a strong polar front as we've seen the past 10 days.

What does this mean? If Earl is indeed a strong hurricane near 21n/ 84w....I'd expect the storm to move NW; either clipping the NE Yucatan or passing into the GOM via the Yucatan Channel. If the current model guidance is in the ballpark, I'd advise everyone along the Gulf Coast to keep a very close eye on him; especially coastal residents from the Florida panhandle westward to Louisiana.

I just don't see this trough being as strong as the two previous ones...and it will be later in arriving, not catching Earl until he's coming into the GOM. The overall current model picture appears to be one that would most likely lead to a landfall somewhere between Vermillion Bay, LA and Panama City, FL. Unless the trough is much quicker in arriving OR Earl ends up north of Haiti or Cuba moving WNW in 4 days, the odds of a Charley repeat in SW Florida are very low (i.e.- in the forecast overall picture, Earl would be more likely to reach it's western apex (recurve) around 28-30n....not at the latitude of Key West, FL (24.5n) as Charley did.

NOTE: This is NOT a forecast...simply an overview of the current and forecast synoptic outlook for the 5 to 7 day period. We don't even know if Earl will be a tropical cyclone in 5 days...or if it is, how intense it will be.