Earl Advisories

[Guest]

earl could possible be a cane with winds of 145mph upon entering GOM. We're having a discussion about it in chat. Watch out from the Keys to Houston.

Would you mind telling me the pressure upon entrance as well? Just for reference purposes, thanks...

[stormchazer]

Tell the Outer Banks that multiple strikes do not happen in a year. They would probably punch you. I do not think it likely though that SW FL will get hit again this year.

[~SirCane]

Yep, people all the way from the Florida Keys to Texas needs to keep its eye out. Depending on the front-it could go anywhere between Morgan City, LA Eastward. If the trough doesn't affect it- Texas.

[~SirCane]

You're right, the odds of two Hurricanes striking the SAME area within a weeks time is just UNHEARD OF. Getting Hit by Erin and then Opal exatly 2 months later in 1995 was crazy enough I thought!

[Steve H.]

Vort, what model shows a NW turn after 60 hours??? I don't see any. If it turned NW after hour 60, it wouldn't make it to the GOM

[Dean4Storms]

Everything I'm seeing at this point has me concerned that Earl will be a major hurricane in the GOM and landfall somewhere on the North Gulf Coast from LA to Tampa. Hopefully UL winds will take a toll on him before he landfalls. Of course it is still a good week away and the eventual track will become more fine tuned as the models form a consensus.

[Aimless]

Just got power back on about an hour ago... First thing I did was check the Weather Channel and log on here.. after this experience, trust me, people in Florida will be paying close attention.

[Guest]

Summing up everyones thoughts currently, Earl could be a major cane when it landfalls some where between Baton Rouge and the Florida Keys. People need to watch this carefully.

[MGC]

The possiblity of two hurricane landfalls in one are during the same season has occured before as recently as 1995 near Pensacola. Odds of two tornadoes passing over the same place? Moore Oklahoma. 1999 F5 and then in 2003, F3 (I got to see the F3). I hate to even think of another cane hitting SW Fla. There is currently little in the way of communications and alerting the people would be difficult.....MGC

[MWatkins]

Remeber...this is not a straight-line forecast per-se. In fact I'm working a way to rewrite forecast tracks...but this one is old-school for now...not going to hype anything yet...there is still plenty of time to watch.

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/TC04_2004.htm

MW

[Guest]

Well I was just looking at NOGAP and hopefully it is wrong, because it brings Earl right up the West side of the peninsula of florida.

[Aimless]

Odds in favor or against don't phase me a bit... apparently storms don't pay a whole lot'a attention to the models or the forcasters...Why should they be influenced by the "odds" ... the storm will go where the influencing factors send it...

[Opal storm]

No...I do not need Earl,I already have enough to clean up Send it to Texas or Alabama,anywhere but here

[Aquawind]

Should be interesting alrighty..Thanks MW..

[Derek Ortt]

latest wv imagery shows no significant shear at all over the carib now. wish I had some better news than I currently do have

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl052004forecast.html

[Windsong]

Storm Surge MAPS for every county in FL by catagory.

http://www.floridadisaster.org/PublicMapping/index.htm

[Brent]

latest wv imagery shows no significant shear at all over the carib now. wish I had some better news than I currently do have

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl052004forecast.html

Ummmm... does that say 100 kt(115 mph)?



I'm going to scream now...

[Hurricanehink]

Uh-oh. Fortunately, it isn't organized right now, so the islands shouldn't get it too bad, but I really hope it speeds up so it falls apart...

[abajan]

Here in the southwest of the island we've had few heavy showers and one flash of lightning accompanied by a rumble of thunder. The winds haven't picked up as yet.

As I type this, the rain is starting to fall rather heavily again.

If possible, I'll report again tomorrow morning.


Good Night to all.

[Stormchaser16]

Shear maps indicate strong shear building in the central and eastern Caribbean