Charley Advisories

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The Big Dog
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Re: Its over in the NEUS --CHARLEY is NO longer a Hurrican

#2241 Postby The Big Dog » Sat Aug 14, 2004 10:09 am

DT wrote: MYR has no winds over . Keeping Hurricane status by TPC is ther wriong thing to do here...

Well, it might not meet the true definition of a tropical system, but I wouldn't expect them to declare it extratropical at this point, either. It's a technical difference that I doubt the layperson would understand, and they could let down their guards as a result. (Oh well, it's EXTRAtropical now, so it's not as bad anymore.) Rather have them be scientifically wrong than give the impression that Charley is any less than what it is.
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Charley Falling Pressure, but Winds Not Down to Surface

#2242 Postby Anonymous » Sat Aug 14, 2004 11:30 am

latest NHC discussion sounds like good news for sc and nc. However, Charley will maintain TC winds and strong gusts for the rest of its east coast trip, plus isolated tornadoes.

AIRCRAFT...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF CHARLEY IS ON THE COAST NEAR MYRTLE BEACH. RECENT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE NEAR 90 KT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE WAS 989 MB. SO THE WIND IS KEPT AT HURRICANE FORCE AT 15Z. HOWEVER IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE REACHING THE SURFACE AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE STRONG FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE WAY
BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. IN ANY CASE...CHARLY WILL SOON WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER LAND IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY DONE SO.
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#2243 Postby Guest » Sat Aug 14, 2004 11:46 am

it is slowly becoming extratropical, but there is still convection around the center which is bringing down winds above the surface, and there is a very long fetch on the east side pumping in some amount of tropical moisture. So therefore, saying this thing is extratropical and against the NHC is fairly ignorant. it is BECOMING extratropical.
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Charley Catgeory 5!!!

#2244 Postby Anonymous » Sat Aug 14, 2004 7:46 pm

Was Charley a category 5? 180 mph gust.... Damage very much like category 5 Andrew.
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#2245 Postby Anonymous » Sat Aug 14, 2004 7:49 pm

Hmmmm.
Well its really hard to say, but I could think its possible. Despite Charley's high pressure (941 mb does not support a Cat 5), its incredible tight circulation (6 mile wide eye, easily one of the smallest on record) could produce 155 mph sustained winds. I dont think its damage was quite as bad as Andrew however (albeit much more extensive throughout the state), mainly due to its very small windfield (I believe even Andrew's was larger).
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Hard and Fast "Rules"

#2246 Postby Steve Cosby » Sat Aug 14, 2004 7:51 pm

That ranking system is too hard and fast in terms of rules anyway. You may well be right but the wind speed at landfall plus pressure seem to be the only things that matter.

That's a reversal from tornadoes. With those, the F rating is based on the damage observed by the NWS mets.
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#2247 Postby weatherluvr » Sat Aug 14, 2004 7:52 pm

Solid 4, definitely, but not quite a 5.
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#2248 Postby Anonymous » Sat Aug 14, 2004 7:54 pm

That's a reversal from tornadoes. With those, the F rating is based on the damage observed by the NWS mets.


The only reason that is the case is because of the incredibly hard ability to actually measure a tornado's windspeed without getting killed.
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True

#2249 Postby Steve Cosby » Sat Aug 14, 2004 7:56 pm

Houstoner wrote:The only reason that is the case is because of the incredibly hard ability to actually measure a tornado's windspeed without getting killed.


Oh, yeah, that's true.
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#2250 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Aug 14, 2004 7:59 pm

I think it was a cat 5 at landfall. I am the only one who voted yes.


I did because well 956 mb at 145 Mph. And then the pressure droped down to 943 mb. In an hr. That would make winds most likely 155mph give or take. Probally higher. So yes it should if there was an intermeidate special advisory instead of the 3 hr wait it would have been a Cat 5.
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#2251 Postby SouthernWx » Sat Aug 14, 2004 8:08 pm

Not a category 5 IMO, but very close. At the time of landfall near Boca Grande, recon measured 700 mb flight level winds of 148 kts (170 mph). Reducing this gives an estimate of 153 mph sustained at the surface.

Also, this hurricane was much more intense throughout it's life than one would think because of the central pressure (this was because the hurricane formed and tracked through an area of higher than normal surface pressure). For example, Charley was a 90 kt (105 mph) cat-2 south of Cuba while the central pressure was 980 mb (more indicative of a 75 kt hurricane). Similarly, when Charley was at 954 mb (normal for a 105 kt cat-3), recon was measuring flight level winds more indicative of a 125 kt (145 mph) cat-4. If the same applied at landfall, 941 mb would likely mean surface sustained winds of 130-135 kts (or 150-155 mph).

Peak gusts in such a tightly knit, compact hurricane would likely be in the 180-190 mph range....or capable of causing the same type of damage as a 10-15 mile wide F3 tornado.

This hurricane was even smaller than Andrew...and gives us some excellent insight to the estimated intensity of the infamous 1935 Labor Day hurricane in the Florida Keys. About the same size as Charley, the Labor Day hurricane had a central pressure of 892 mb at landfall. Using other similar small but violent hurricanes as a guide (i.e- Charley, Iris), it's a good bet that sustained winds in the Labor Day hurricane exceeded 200 mph (175 kts), with peak gusts at or above 230 mph (200 kts). That's why the damage aftermath resembled an airliner crash scene...or the aftermath of a violent (F4) tornado; and why some unfortunate victims were found literally "sandblasted" to death after the hurricane's passage....an extremely gruesome scene for survivors and rescuers. :(
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#2252 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Aug 14, 2004 8:14 pm

SouthernWx wrote:Not a category 5 IMO, but very close. At the time of landfall near Boca Grande, recon measured 700 mb flight level winds of 148 kts (170 mph). Reducing this gives an estimate of 153 mph sustained at the surface.

Also, this hurricane was much more intense throughout it's life than one would think because of the central pressure (this was because the hurricane formed and tracked through an area of higher than normal surface pressure). For example, Charley was a 90 kt (105 mph) cat-2 south of Cuba while the central pressure was 980 mb (more indicative of a 75 kt hurricane). Similarly, when Charley was at 954 mb (normal for a 105 kt cat-3), recon was measuring flight level winds more indicative of a 125 kt (145 mph) cat-4. If the same applied at landfall, 941 mb would likely mean surface sustained winds of 130-135 kts (or 150-155 mph).

Peak gusts in such a tightly knit, compact hurricane would likely be in the 180-190 mph range....or capable of causing the same type of damage as a 10-15 mile wide F3 tornado.

This hurricane was even smaller than Andrew...and gives us some excellent insight to the estimated intensity of the infamous 1935 Labor Day hurricane in the Florida Keys. About the same size as Charley, the Labor Day hurricane had a central pressure of 892 mb at landfall. Using other similar small but violent hurricanes as a guide (i.e- Charley, Iris), it's a good bet that sustained winds in the Labor Day hurricane exceeded 200 mph (175 kts), with peak gusts at or above 230 mph (200 kts). That's why the damage aftermath resembled an airliner crash scene...or the aftermath of a violent (F4) tornado; and why some unfortunate victims were found literally "sandblasted" to death after the hurricane's passage....an extremely gruesome scene for survivors and rescuers. :(


Charley very much had the characteristics of Hurricane Iris in 2001 ... a very small, very compact storm in which the core only extended just about 30 miles or so ... I think it's conceivable that Charley may have been 150 mph, but NOT a CAT 5 ... still devastating enough, though.

SF
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#2253 Postby Stormchaser16 » Sat Aug 14, 2004 8:14 pm

A 15 MILE WIDE TORNADO? When has that happened? Yikes.......
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Moore, Oklahoma F5

#2254 Postby Steve Cosby » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:02 pm

Stormchaser16 wrote:A 15 MILE WIDE TORNADO? When has that happened? Yikes.......


Check out the destruction left by the Moore, Oklahoma F5

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/storms/19990503/index.html

I didn't find the reference right off but I think the cleared area (i.e. even the asphalt was removed from the road) for about 1/2 mile. Destruction covered 3 miles.
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#2255 Postby Hurricanehink » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:06 pm

Uhh... the largest tornado ever was 2 miles wide. I did a huge research paper, and the largest it can be is 2 miles, while many have been miles or less.

I don't think Charley was a category 5. Maybe 150 M.P.H. but I doubt 160.
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#2256 Postby DCA » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:34 pm

Based on pressure ALONE (recognizing that Charley had a small 8 mi. wide eye), Charley will be (at 941mb) the T-15 strongest US landfalling hurricane. It seems like far too many structures that were inside the eyewall withstood the winds to say Charley was near cat 5. Out curiosity, post the higest surface wind/gust you have heard reported.
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In addition to the HIRT guy

#2257 Postby Steve Cosby » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:36 pm

DCA wrote:It seems like far too many structures that were inside the eyewall withstood the winds to say Charley was near cat 5.


In addition to that Mark guy in the Lowe's/HIRT Tahoe.
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11pm Charley-40 mph winds, almost extratropical

#2258 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:39 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

...CHARLEY ALMOST EXTRATROPICAL...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED ON WESTERN LONG
ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND...AND ELSEWHERE WEST OF NEW HAVEN
CONNECTICUT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NEW
HAVE CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...AND FOR EASTERN
LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND EASTWARD.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST OR ABOUT
30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD
BRING THE CENTER OF CHARLEY NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CHARLEY IS JUST BARELY A TROPICAL STORM AND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE COASTAL MARINE AUTOMATED STATION AT
CHESAPEAKE BAY LIGHT RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH AT
AN ELEVATION OF 140 FEET.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE PATH OF
CHARLEY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST U.S. COASTAL STATES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...37.9 N... 74.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.
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#2259 Postby Stormchaser16 » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:41 pm

Yup, hardly a shadow of its former self
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#2260 Postby Lutrastorm » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:43 pm

Hard steady rain all afternoon on the Delaware coast, but no wind. Good for us with already moisture laden soil....don't need trees going down.
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