Comments on the Atlantic [14.08.2004, 0200 UTC]

[DoctorHurricane2003]

S 14.08.2004 [SAT AUG 14 2004]
0200 UTC [0900 PM CDT]


TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY (03L)

After its devastating run through FL, Charley made landfall today in SC, stretching through NC and VA with 70 MPH winds. Expect Charley to become EXTRATROPICAL at the 11 PM EDT advisory.


TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE (04L)

Over the day, Danielle has become much better organized and should become a Hurricane at 11 PM AST. Expect Danielle to continue to move to the W and WNW as a strong category 1 hurricane/weak category 2 over the next few days, maintaining her strength as she moves over an area of cooler waters. After that, expect her to begin a turn to the NW and in five days...be a strong category 2 or minimal category 3 hurricane in the Central Atlantic.


TROPICAL STORM EARL (05L)

Earl has also become much better organized throughout the day, however, unlike Danielle...Earl has a very great chance at making landfall in the United States. In movement, expect Earl to continue to move to the WNW through the Caribbean, across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, to the Yucatan Channel in 5 days....slowing down as it approaches the W Caribbean as a front and shortwave trough begin to dig towards the Gulf Coast (not as strong as Charley's front). The shortwave trough will begin to turn Charley's motion from WNW to NW, and after 6-7 days, Earl should be picked up by the front in a NW-NNW-N Motion, but not NNE or NE while he is in the Gulf of Mexico. Landfall could be anywhere between Houston, TX and Cedar Key, FL....with the highest probability between Grand Isle, LA and Apalachicola, FL. All interests in the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean need to monitor the progress of Earl. In terms of strength, Earl should be a major hurricane as it enters the Gulf of Mexico...perhaps going through a rapid intensification phase in the extreme W Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico. As it enters the Gulf, winds could be anywhere between 125 and 190 MPH...with it most likely at 145 MPH.

12 HRS: 45 KT
24 HRS: 55 KT
36 HRS: 65 KT
48 HRS: 75 KT
72 HRS: 90 KT
96 HRS: 105 KT (After passing Jamaica)
120 HRS: 125 KT (As it enters the GOM)


***END

NOTE: Forecasts past 3 days are very difficult to make. You should not make any plans on any information until a Hurricane Watch is issued for your area, and do not worry until a cyclone is, at most, three days away from impacting your area.

[Steve Cosby]

S 14.08.2004 [SAT AUG 14 2004]
0200 UTC [0900 PM CDT]

<snip>

NOTE: Forecasts past 3 days are very difficult to make. You should not make any plans on any information until a Hurricane Watch is issued for your area, and do not worry until a cyclone is, at most, three days away from impacting your area.

Where's your "I'm not the NHC disclaimer"?

[DoctorHurricane2003]

??? I think it's understood that there are no NHC Forecasters on this board.

[Derek Ortt]

Steve,

who cares? It's a post on a message board

[Steve Cosby]

??? I think it's understood that there are no NHC Forecasters on this board.

That's true but the other guys all make it clear in all of their official looking stuff that they are not the NHC.

The first thing I thought when I read your post is that this was somehow official. It kinda made me mad when I figured it out: first that I was apparently too stupid to know better and second that it was possible this was your intent.

No, I guess I'll take the blame on this: I'm apparently too stupid to know that this wasn't a quote of an official document.

[LilNoles2004]

Alarming. Everytime I see 'Apalachicola' mentioned as ANY part of a hurricane forecast, I get excited/nervous/sick...

- Chris aka C-Dizzle.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Steve....since I've been doing this for nearly a month now, I'm just going to pretend I didn't here that.

BTW...when was the last time you heard the NHC post something called "Comments on the Atlantic"

???

[Steve Cosby]

Steve....since I've been doing this for nearly a month now, I'm just going to pretend I didn't here that.

BTW...when was the last time you heard the NHC post something called "Comments on the Atlantic"

???

Well, crap. I'm so sorry I've turned out to be the retard on the board.

Just go right ahead and continue because I'm sure I'm the only one who would be mislead.

[Stormchaser16]

Steve....since I've been doing this for nearly a month now, I'm just going to pretend I didn't here that.

BTW...when was the last time you heard the NHC post something called "Comments on the Atlantic"

???

Well, crap. I'm so sorry I've turned out to be the retard on the board.

Just go right ahead and continue because I'm sure I'm the only one who would be mislead.

Do you think theres any chance of you growing up?

[Steve Cosby]

Do you think theres any chance of you growing up?

Nope, at 41 I guess I'm stuck - but I'll drop it because I'm apparently the one in the wrong.

[Brent]

Get over yourself Steve.

Everyone here knows this is not an official forecast from the NHC.

[Stormchaser16]

Well its just that they are trying to explain something, and ur basically going off on a tangent, enough is enough

[Steve Cosby]

Well its just that they are trying to explain something, and ur basically going off on a tangent, enough is enough

Yes, sir.

[~SirCane]

Hey Doc neighbor.

Good post. I agree pretty much. The next front isn't going to be quite as strong. Where it goes is going to depend on the timing. Best thing to do is stay prepared for anything!

This season looks like killer.

[SouthernWx]

While there are never any guarantees anymore (I've seen too many promising TS's mysteriously decoupled and dissapate since 2000)...I agree that Earl has the potential to become a very dangerous hurricane by the time it reaches the area near or south of western Cuba in 120 hours. The NHC forecast track tonight is eerily similar to hurricane Gilbert's in 1988.

With low shear forecast and a strong ridge north of the Caribbean, the SHIPS and GFDL intensity guidance seems much too low by the 96-120 hour period. Of course, we must remember SHIPS forecast little strengthening of Charley in the GOM, and GFDL only took it too 117 kts, and we saw how far off the beam they were.