Independent Investigation

[Aslkahuna]

The debate between the initial intensity of Cat 2 vs Cat 3 at 11AM is fallacious-If I recall the advisories correctly, the storm was forecast to be at 120 mph sustained winds or CAT 3 at landfall so it wasn't a forecast Cat 2 landfall but a THREE!! The main error was in the track when the jog turned out the be an actual track change and not a wobble. As far as saying that a hurricane doesn't go from a 2 to a 4 in 2.5 hours has obviously never followed typhoons back in the days when Recon was available like I have or they would never have made such a statement. The 1935 hurricane went from a 40kt storm to a 160kt hurricane in 24 hours or less and I'm sure that somewhere in the explosive deepening stage there was a 2 Category change in a couple of hours. Also too, remember that Charlie was listed at 95kt at 11 AM-that's 110mph or 1 mph below Cat 3 so it wasn't a full Cat 2 change. A change of 35mph sustained winds in 2.5 hours is easy for a hurricane to pull off especially tight and compact storms which are notoriousl for rapid changes in intensity and remember Andrew rebombed just before landfall in FL.

Steve

[Stormchaser16]

Nope main error wasnt in the track, main error was intensity, and how it needed to be upgraded to give EM that extra time to take more precautions. The jog happened, so be it, they were in the forecast cone all along. As for hurricanes intensifying, making assumptions like you are doing, is just that, making assumptions, and not facts. Still the main error was intensity(not the forecast, but the lack of upgrade). Still not getting the point that the area it hit, was well within the forecast zone and was NOT thousands of miles from tampa(that was all just media hype that it would go to tampa, when data clearly started shifting back east).......media wouldnt let it go, and yes that was a big error, but NOT by NHC, just idiotic media. Main NHC error was lack of upgrading.

[Mello1]

http://www.charlottecountyfl.com/Emerge ... letins.asp

Date: Thursday, August 12, 2004 Time: 4:19:31 PM
Mandatory Evacuation of Barrier Islands
CHARLOTTE COUNTY SCHOOLS TO CLOSE FRIDAY. MANDATORY EVACUATION OF BARRIER ISLANDS, RV PARKS, AND MOBILE HOME COMMUNITIES IN CHARLOTTE COUNTY ORDERED AT 3 P.M. TODAY.

So they had 24 hours to evacuate after the order.

It was interesting this morning flipping around the channels; they seemed astonished when they found out about the evac order, and a bit chagrined since it would mess up their "surprise, area not warned" story they were chomping at the bit with knives out to tell.

Thank you for the information. Clearly the order was not heeded, although I thought that mandatory meant you had no choice in the matter. Guess not.

[Rainband]

http://www.charlottecountyfl.com/Emerge ... letins.asp

Date: Thursday, August 12, 2004 Time: 4:19:31 PM
Mandatory Evacuation of Barrier Islands
CHARLOTTE COUNTY SCHOOLS TO CLOSE FRIDAY. MANDATORY EVACUATION OF BARRIER ISLANDS, RV PARKS, AND MOBILE HOME COMMUNITIES IN CHARLOTTE COUNTY ORDERED AT 3 P.M. TODAY.

So they had 24 hours to evacuate after the order.

It was interesting this morning flipping around the channels; they seemed astonished when they found out about the evac order, and a bit chagrined since it would mess up their "surprise, area not warned" story they were chomping at the bit with knives out to tell.

Thank you for the information. Clearly the order was not heeded, although I thought that mandatory meant you had no choice in the matter. Guess not.

Amen

[joseph01]

I don't see anything ridiculous about westchesterpa's post. However, I did see Lindaloo's as rude. Is it the moderator's job around here to call people's comments ridiculous? It almost seems like if you're not part of the groupthink around here, you're not welcome. Sad.

[Jevo]

Man.....

Where is the Dyn-O-Mat when you need it

[slosh]

LOL - I for got all about Dyn-O-Mat!

[Steve Cosby]

Man.....

Where is the Dyn-O-Mat when you need it

What ever happened to those nuts? I remember he had a right cool British bomber they were going to use to dump the stuff.

[GalvestonDuck]

You honestly can't sit there and try to tell me that the NHC didn't forecast this to be a major hurricane, can you?

Here's your independent investigation!!!!

Now how about getting on the liberal network media for not reporting the OFFICIAL warnings and forecast!

Also of note -- they continued to say "as Charley approaches the Florida West Coast." They did NOT say "Tampa" or any specific area. That was the media who tried to make a specific call on landfall. Hurricane warnings were issued up and down the coast. Everyone was warned.




HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES CHARLEY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHARLEY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
THREE OR MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF CUBA.

*************************************
HURRICANE CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...CHARLEY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD WESTERN CUBA...

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CHARLEY COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.[u]


*************************************
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES CHARLEY A [u]CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CHARLEY COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.


*************************************
HURRICANE CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES CHARLEY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST


*************************************
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES CHARLEY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.


*************************************
HURRICANE CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGHTENING IS POSSIBLE AND
CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST.


*************************************
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO
BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.


*************************************
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY AS CHARLEY APPROACHES
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.


*************************************
HURRICANE CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL ON THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.


*************************************
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A
FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.


*************************************
HURRICANE CHARLEY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18 CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONCENTRATED IN A VERY SMALL AREA
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED
MAY OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL.

[ColdFront77]

The original forecast tracks for Hurricane Charley were consistent for a Tampa Bay area landfall, then [both in updated models and from
point A to point B] only no more than 20 miles NW of me (I am located about 20 miles south of Ocala).

This forecast track took a dramatic turn {a good 50 miles southeasterly} within a half hour after the winds increased from 125 to 145 mph,
thus the forecast cone changed dramatically.

The National Hurricane Center does an extremely good job given these oftentimes very difficult situations with tropical cyclones.

[MGC]

Here are my two cents:

This is a classic case of one failure becoming a catastrophe.

First the NHC, in my estimation despite forecasting a Cat 3 landfall, the NHC mistake was not including the vortex message in the 11am advisory. Charley was clearly a Cat 3 hurricane at 11am. Another minor bone I have to pick with the NHC is Charley was clearly moving NNE, not N as the advisory stated. As evidence of rapid intensification was received from the hurricane hunters did the NHC issue special advisories? Yes, they did.

Second the Media, not being located in SW Florida all I had was national media and TWC. TWC seemed on top of things. The national media was showing updates but the main story at noon was Lacie Peterson's murder.

Third the people of SW Florida, it appears that many did not evacuate despite the mandatory evacuation orders. Can you hold these people whom did not choose to evacuate blameless? They made the decision to stay. If they were killed they were either totally ignorant that a hurricane was approaching or had a death wish.

It will be interesting to see what future investigations reveal in this matter. Things could have been handled a little better by the NHC, media and residents of SW Florida.

MGC

[ColdFront77]

Yes, I know there was a Hurricane Warning up for the Florida west coast, but those living in and around the immediate
Tampa area were urged to evacuate before those in Punta Gorda, Port Charlotte and Fort Myers were, as a result, it
would of been nearly impossible to get them all out in time.

[adelphi_sky]

Sorry, one more thing, I can't resist. Lindaloo - This post is not ridiculous because our government owes it to us to do as much as they can to protect us. Part of that is increasing the level of the science, so that predictions of changes like this can be made in advance. But, until that happens (if it happens), people living along coasts can not afford to sit out storms because they think, for whatever reason, that they won't be that bad.

"increasing the level of science" Whoa. Incredible. So because man is not God, he should be held accountable for not being omnicient? Yeah, right. Why do you think we're still trying to find a cure for aids? Cancer? Gonna blame those scientists too? As it stands, we are BLESSED to be as far as we are now with the level of technology where we can be reasonably certain where a storm is going to hit 24 hours before it does. Can anyone do it better? We're ahead of the curve as far as I'm concerned. Look at China. I applaud those people who took up the resonsibility to protect lives een though what they do is NOT an exact science.

[Lindaloo]

I don't see anything ridiculous about westchesterpa's post. However, I did see Lindaloo's as rude. Is it the moderator's job around here to call people's comments ridiculous? It almost seems like if you're not part of the groupthink around here, you're not welcome. Sad.

I said it was ridiculous because it is. Okay, since I am a moderator I need to keep quiet? Um okay!!

[Ground_Zero_92]

I know that if I was in a manditory evacuation zone and police were in the streets on loud PA systems telling all residents that they had to leave, I would leave. I would not base my decision on the current direction or size/category of the hurricane. I agree that our government has the responsibility to protect us. As far as I'm concerned, they adhered to their responsibility by telling me that I was in a hurricane manditory evacuation area and I had to leave.

If I chose not to follow the manditory evacuation order then I gave up their responsible attempt to protect me. If I became injured or killed because of my decision not to leave, I only have myself to blame.

[PurdueWx80]

Adelphi - in my post, I meant that the forecast improvement is only a small part of the improvement that can be made. I posted before I got all of my thoughts out, but it was an extension of thoughts I had posted earlier - the basic gist is that I think that there was probably some sort of failure along the communication line from NHC - Tampa NWS - Tampa media - to the National media. I really think most of the 'problem' had to do with the media misinterpreting what the NWS in Tampa was warning for, which was a likely 10-15 ft surge (into downtown) Cat 3 storm from Tampa Bay south. Of course, there is a problem w/ stubborn people who assume that a storm will not intensify or come their way. Some of that probably has to do with the perception that meteorologists don't know what the hell they are talking about. I, as a meteorologist, take offense in that. The forecasts are great, and in fact, will become near "perfect" with the implementation of the WRF at NCEP, especially if technology will permit a 4-km or higher resolution model to run operationally. Someone has to do a better job of making it aware that even though our forecasts aren't perfect, they are very good, but these storms are dangerous and they shouldn't be taken lightly.