Charley Advisories
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slosh
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Charley's Storm Surge
It seems like the storm surge was not a big factor in the damages we have seen. Is this because the core of the strongest winds were pretty small?
Also - It has always seemed stranged to me that the focus of evacuation zones are always based soley on surge calculations. Perhaps this is an area of improvement for emergency planners.
Also - It has always seemed stranged to me that the focus of evacuation zones are always based soley on surge calculations. Perhaps this is an area of improvement for emergency planners.
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Steve Cosby
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SouthernWx
Records set by hurricane Charley
Charley was an extremely unusual hurricane in several respects...
1) Charley is the first major hurricane of record to ever strike the Florida west coast from the GOM during August....based on research back to 1845.
2) Charley is also the earliest in the season major hurricane of record to ever strike the Florida peninsula. The previous earliest was the August 16, 1888 Miami hurricane.
Earliest in the season major hurricanes on the Florida peninsula
8/13/2004 Charley
8/16/1888 unnamed (Miami area)
8/17/1871 unnamed (Palm Beach area)
8/24/1992 Andrew
8/27/1949 unnamed (Palm Beach area)
3) At 941 mb and 130 kts (150 mph), Charley is likely the most intense hurricane to ever move inland along the Florida west coast (at least since the great October 1846 hurricane).
It's quite amazing to realize the last two cat-4/5 hurricanes to strike the Florida peninsula both occurred in August. Before Andrew, there were no confirmed cat-4 hurricanes to ever strike peninsular Florida in the month of August...and the only August cat-3's previous to Andrew in 92' occurred in 1871, 1888, and 1949 (only 5 August majors in 158 years).
Historically, both September and October are far more likely months to experience a major hurricane on the Florida peninsula than August....yet we've now seen two August major hits on the peninsula since 1992 (Andrew; Charley)...while the last September major was Betsy way back in 1965; the last landfalling October major was hurricane King in 1950.
Charley was also the first cat-4/5 hurricane to strike the U.S. since Andrew in 1992. It appears we've now returned to normal regarding landfalling U.S. cat 4/5 hurricanes. Between 1900-1969, there were 14...or an average of one every five years. After Camille devastated the Mississippi coast in 1969, there was a 20 year lull until hurricane Hugo in 1989.
We've now experienced three landfalling cat-4/5's during the past 15 years (Hugo, Andrew, Charley).
Charley was also one of the smallest severe hurricanes I've ever witnessed. According to WAGA-TV chief meteorologist Ken Cook, the eyewall was only 10-15 miles in diameter when the hurricane made landfall....the tiny 5 mile diameter eye fitting inside Charlotte Harbor.
Charley was also the first major landfalling hurricane along the Florida west coast in 44 years.
1) Charley is the first major hurricane of record to ever strike the Florida west coast from the GOM during August....based on research back to 1845.
2) Charley is also the earliest in the season major hurricane of record to ever strike the Florida peninsula. The previous earliest was the August 16, 1888 Miami hurricane.
Earliest in the season major hurricanes on the Florida peninsula
8/13/2004 Charley
8/16/1888 unnamed (Miami area)
8/17/1871 unnamed (Palm Beach area)
8/24/1992 Andrew
8/27/1949 unnamed (Palm Beach area)
3) At 941 mb and 130 kts (150 mph), Charley is likely the most intense hurricane to ever move inland along the Florida west coast (at least since the great October 1846 hurricane).
It's quite amazing to realize the last two cat-4/5 hurricanes to strike the Florida peninsula both occurred in August. Before Andrew, there were no confirmed cat-4 hurricanes to ever strike peninsular Florida in the month of August...and the only August cat-3's previous to Andrew in 92' occurred in 1871, 1888, and 1949 (only 5 August majors in 158 years).
Historically, both September and October are far more likely months to experience a major hurricane on the Florida peninsula than August....yet we've now seen two August major hits on the peninsula since 1992 (Andrew; Charley)...while the last September major was Betsy way back in 1965; the last landfalling October major was hurricane King in 1950.
Charley was also the first cat-4/5 hurricane to strike the U.S. since Andrew in 1992. It appears we've now returned to normal regarding landfalling U.S. cat 4/5 hurricanes. Between 1900-1969, there were 14...or an average of one every five years. After Camille devastated the Mississippi coast in 1969, there was a 20 year lull until hurricane Hugo in 1989.
We've now experienced three landfalling cat-4/5's during the past 15 years (Hugo, Andrew, Charley).
Charley was also one of the smallest severe hurricanes I've ever witnessed. According to WAGA-TV chief meteorologist Ken Cook, the eyewall was only 10-15 miles in diameter when the hurricane made landfall....the tiny 5 mile diameter eye fitting inside Charlotte Harbor.
Charley was also the first major landfalling hurricane along the Florida west coast in 44 years.
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southerngale
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weatherluvr
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SouthernWx
According to a couple of meteorologist friends, NHC is officially listing Charley at 941 mb and 130 kts (150 mph) at landfall. I also saw the same info posted by a pro meteorologist on Wright Wx's board. In addition to the 170 mph flight level wind measured by recon, we now have eyewall dropsondes to measure surface winds, and Nexrad doppler radar.
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SouthernWx
We haven't totally assessed the measured storm surge yet....the primary efforts at the moment is search and rescue. I didn't learn for over a week the true extent of Andrew's storm surge in the northern eyewall (16.9').
Already I've seen evidence from news chopper footage of a very large storm surge that occurred on Captiva Island and the western end of Sanibel. With a hurricane this compact, the radius of extreme storm surge would have been smaller than usual (same thing happened in Andrew....17' storm surge at Cutler Ridge, but only 7-8' at Miami Beach less than 20 miles away).
The 7' storm surge reported from Fort Myers Beach was 15-20 miles outside the eastern eyewall. I venture an educated guess the surge on Captiva was at least 16-17' (there was at least one large inlet carved through Captiva Island...and it appeared from news footage the entire island went underwater).
Already I've seen evidence from news chopper footage of a very large storm surge that occurred on Captiva Island and the western end of Sanibel. With a hurricane this compact, the radius of extreme storm surge would have been smaller than usual (same thing happened in Andrew....17' storm surge at Cutler Ridge, but only 7-8' at Miami Beach less than 20 miles away).
The 7' storm surge reported from Fort Myers Beach was 15-20 miles outside the eastern eyewall. I venture an educated guess the surge on Captiva was at least 16-17' (there was at least one large inlet carved through Captiva Island...and it appeared from news footage the entire island went underwater).
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SouthernWx
Stormchaser16 wrote:A 15 MILE WIDE TORNADO? When has that happened? Yikes.......
Sorry, but I didn't say it was a 15 mile wide F3 tornado...the damage inside the area where Charley's intense core (eyewall) passed over was JUST LIKE the effects of a 15 mile wide F3 tornado.....160+ mph wind gusts cutting a swath 15 miles wide through Charlotte county (and possibly even farther inland from the reports coming out of Desoto county (Arcadia, FL looks as if a bomb had been dropped there...and it's located about 40 miles inland from the open coast).
There have been uncomfirmed reports of 130-140 mph gusts from as far inland as southern Polk county, Florida.....areas well inland around Bartow and Lake Wales.
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BL03
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Upper Captiva Island is seen after Hurricane Charley cut a new channel through it, as the storm came ashore west of Fort Myers, in Florida, August 14, 2004. Across storm-struck southwest Florida, dazed residents emerged Saturday morning from damaged homes or returned from public shelters to find their lives turned inside out by Hurricane Charley, which struck Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda and Fort Myers with ferocious 145 mph (233 kph) winds and a flooding 15-foot (4.5-meter) storm surge. Hurricane Charley battered multimillion-dollar houses on exclusive islands off southwest Florida, prompting an initial damage estimate of $3 billion in one county alone, an official said Saturday. REUTERS/Pierre Ducharme
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opera ghost
- Category 4
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Charlie Come back around for another go....
I know this is VERY VERY unlikely, or more simply put impossible. However impossible things happen every once in a while. For all i know this could be an error with the modeling software.
The below model map shows one model looping charlie back around into the south-eastern atlantic, possibly for another go...
THAT would be something for the record books...
-Eric
The below model map shows one model looping charlie back around into the south-eastern atlantic, possibly for another go...
THAT would be something for the record books...
-Eric
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