FXUS62 KTBW 150700
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
300 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR TODAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
AND WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST. MAY SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IN A FEW SPOTS AGAIN TODAY...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY ALBEIT RATHER
LIGHT WITH A DECENT SEA BREEZE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SO EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THEN MOVING/DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SAT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN AND KEEPS
POPS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR WED AND THU...WHILE RAISING TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN CLIMO. FOR FRI AND SAT...MODELS SPREAD ON
WHAT TO DO WITH EARL. LATEST TPC GUIDANCE HAS IT MOVING INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL 00Z FRI. HAVE TWEAKED WIND DIRECTIONS A LITTLE TO
MATCH THIS FORECAST...BUT HAVE KEPT SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS AS STILL TOO
FAR OUT TO BE CERTAIN. WILL ALSO KEEP POPS AT 50 PERCENT IN CASE
EARL MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. SHOULD EARL STAY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
MAY BE ABLE TO CUT POPS BACK WITH THE SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE STORM.&&
.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY
THIS WEEK WITH A SEA BREEZE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. NO FLAGS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 89 76 90 76 / 50 20 40 20
FMY 90 75 91 75 / 50 20 40 20
GIF 90 75 91 75 / 50 20 40 20
SRQ 89 75 90 75 / 50 20 40 20
BKV 89 72 90 72 / 60 20 40 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
SHORT TERM...PRC
LONG TERM...RJS