The pattern in 2004 season has been for low latitud systems

[cycloneye]

So far this 2004 season we haved seen the tracks of the systems take the low latitud tracks TD#2=Bonnie,TD#3=Charley and now tropical storm Earl soon to be a hurricane.The exception has been hurricane Danielle which has taken the track toward the fishes.The azores high has been strong with some fluctuations and that has been the cause for those systems forst to move quickly and second not move more to the NW.So far Puerto Rico and the virgin islands haved been spared but as we are today on august 15 date when the CV season starts let's see if the low latitud pattern of systems moving west fast continues or Puerto Rico and the virgin islands will be more threatened in the comming 6 weeks.

[cycloneye]

Any comments about the pattern this season?

[Hurricanehink]

Hopefully it won't stay, and there will be a lot of fish storms. Otherwise, it looks that there may be more to come...

[Guest]

the overall pattern favors a zonal flow across the US, with more typical tropical system movement for august. 2-4 weeks later, starting early september...unfortunately the east coast of the US will start opening up more to tropical systems as the early fall pattern reasserts itself and possibly starts driving storms closer to the east coast, rather than the gulf/caribbean.

IMO

[Guest]

but in my eyes there is going to be plenty of action in both areas, gulf and east coast

[cycloneye]

Bumping this thread for getting any more opinions about the pattern in this 2004 season.

[PuertoRicoLibre]

Will it erode on its right side or left side and how quickly. The nightmare scenario, I guess, would be a gradual erosion from west to east, allowing for a more wnw component to the movement of systems shortly before they enter the Caribbean.
I agree that all other things equal an early August like this is not a good omen for September. It would be interesting if senorpepr would provide us some climatological data on previous years of low latitude systems in early August vis a vis the rest of the Cape Verde season (which this year has started 2 weeks ahead of schedue...and with a bang)

On a more positive note, Puerto Rico just defeated the US Dream Team in Basketball in Athens 92 - 73. GO CARLOS ARROYO!!!!!!!!!!

[WeatherEmperor]

Excellent topic! I was just thinking about that around the time Charley was forming. You know in 2002 I guess we began to see this happening. Look at Isidore and Lili in 2002 which were both low latitude storms. In 2003 we had Claudette that impacted Texas and this year already we have had Charley and now Early going in the low latitude direction. I truly hope that this is not a trend because storms that go in the low latitudes like Isidore, Lili and Charley, they HAVE to hit some land because of the fact that they end up in the GOM. I would rather have storms pass north and approach from the Atlantic side. That way at least they have the chance to recurve out to sea and not bother anybody. A few exceptions exists where they dont recurve far enough and end up hitting North Carolina but if the trend continues with low latitude storms coming in from the Caribbean then end up in the GOM it just gets bad.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

Will it erode on its right side or left side and how quickly. The nightmare scenario, I guess, would be a gradual erosion from west to east, allowing for a more wnw component to the movement of systems shortly before they enter the Caribbean.
I agree that all other things equal an early August like this is not a good omen for September. It would be interesting if senorpepr would provide us some climatological data on previous years of low latitude systems in early August vis a vis the rest of the Cape Verde season (which this year has started 2 weeks ahead of schedue...and with a bang)

On a more positive note, Puerto Rico just defeated the US Dream Team in Basketball in Athens 92 - 73. GO CARLOS ARROYO!!!!!!!!!!

Agree 100% with your statement and about the game VIVA PUERTO RICO !!!!!!!!!!! Go to the sports forum and read thread about the game.