9:00 AM CDT ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL UPDATE, AUGUST 15, 2004

[vbhoutex]

9:00 AM CDT ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL UPDATE
SUNDAY, AUGUST 14, 2004

Tropical Storm Charley is expected to dissipate over New England later today. TS Charley is located just about over Boston, Mass. at 42.0N, 71.0W. Highest winds in Charley are 40 mph with higher gusts. These winds extend up to 85 miles from the poorly defined center, mostly to the East. A tropical storm warning remains in effect from New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Mass. and for Eastern Long Island, from Fire Island Eastward. Warnings should be taken down later this morning. TS Charley is moving toward the Northeast near 30 mph and is expected to continue this motion for the rest of the day. The estimated central pressure in Charley is 1016mb or 30.00 inches. Residents of New England and the Canadian Maritimes can expect rainfall amounts from 1"-2" as Charley passes through.

Hurricane Danielle has formed in the Eastern Atlantic. Her center is located at 14.2N, 31.6W or about 485 miles West of the Cape Verde Islands. Current track is to the west at about 17 mph. Danielle is expected to begin a turn to West-Northwest or Northwest later today as she begins to respond to a weakness in the subtropical ridge being created by an incoming trough from the North and Northeast. Maximum estimated winds in Hurricane Danielle are 85 mph with higher gusts and some strengthening is expected and she could become a Category 2 Hurricane by tomorrow. The central pressure of Danielle is estimated at 981 mb or 28.97". Since Danielle is expected to stay over warm waters and in a low shear environment for the next 24 hours it is possible that she could become the 3rd major Hurricane of the season within the next 36 hours, especially if she follows a more Westerly course indicated by some of the models.

Tropical Storm Earl is currently moving through the Windward Islands. TS Earl is located near 11.8N, 60.8W or 65 miles East-Southeast of Grenada. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the islands of Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada and it's dependencies, St. Vincent, and St. Lucia. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Barbados. He is moving to the West at 25 mph and is expected to continue this or a West-Northwest motion for the next 24 hours taking Earl into the Southeastern Caribbean later today. Maximum winds associated with TS Earl are currently 45 mph with some higher gusts. Tropical Storm force winds extend up to 85 miles from the center of Earl. TS Earl is expected to continue strengthening as he moves across the Eastern Caribbean. Currently a Hurricane Hunter is investigating Earl. The central pressure of Earl is estimated at 1005mb or 29.68 inches. Rainfall amounts expected with the passing of Earl are in the 3"-5" range. All interests in the Carribean need to monitor the progress of Earl closely. There is a possibility, if TS Earl continues as currently predicted, that later in the week he will be in the Southern Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 Hurricane so all interests along the Gulf Coast should also be following the progress of Tropical Storm Earl.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone development is not expected in the Atlantic Basin through Monday.

This is NOT an OFFICIAL product of the NHC. For OFFICIAL products contact the NHC or your local weather offices.

By David Van Bergen(vbhoutex)