Earl Advisories

[KatDaddy]

Another Gilbert scenario to unfold across Caribbean and GOM. Gilbert was forecast to be picked up by a trough and never did. I remember the models shifting W across the N Central GOM, to the NW GOM, and the W GOM. Earl is a very low latitude storm that will take much longer to turn WNW and then NW. This will be a very time sensitive issue whether Mexico or S TX get hammer or the Upper TX Coast and LA get hammered. I am having a hard time seeing New Orleans E to FLA being a target. The trough at the end of the week will not be anything compared to last weeks trough.

[Rainband]

I dont like even being near that cone..after how charley turned out. Lets hope he fizzles and no one has to deal with anymore destruction and death anymore this season

[rainstorm]

one thing to consider. it has never happened before for 4 out of the 1st 5 named storms to become majors. danielle will. will earl?

[KatDaddy]

11AM Earl track shifted left. Upper TX Coast and LA may be a threatened area.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

I would not be surprised to see the slight left trend continue since Earl is so far S.

[Brent]

one thing to consider. it has never happened before for 4 out of the 1st 5 named storms to become majors. danielle will. will earl?

Danielle isn't forecast to. 105 mph is the max and then it goes down.

[PurdueWx80]

Forecaster Stewart at 11 p.m. last night said there is a distinct possibility that in 36, if the track is still more westerly, it will stay over warmer waters, and it could become a major hurricane. The CDO is becoming very symmetric and the eye looks to be darkening. As long as the water is warm, she definitely looks to become a Cat 3.

[rainstorm]

i think it will be a cat3. has the look

[Guest]

This says watch Earl all over it!!!

[Rainband]

It's way to early to say where this storm is going. Bottom Line everyone in a Hurricane Threat area, should have been prepared at the start of the season. Charely should have been a wake up call. Watch and wait. I hope this storm doesn't catch residents unprepared. Know your evacuation plan and the zone you live in. Review all the necessary Information before the storm threatens. TAKE the advice and directions from the local authorites seriously. God speed to anyone that has to deal with any storm this season.

[Guest]

This says watch Earl all over it!!!

[Rainband]

Too early to call. Everyone watch and wait. Bottom line be prepared for the worst and Pray for the Best!!

[wx247]

Too early to say whether Earl would prefer a chalupa or not, but what we do know is that this system is still strengthening and is moving closer to some landmass. Where will it make landfall? It is too soon to tell.

[Rainband]

That would excellent news for the US

[OtherHD]

one thing to consider. it has never happened before for 4 out of the 1st 5 named storms to become majors. danielle will. will earl?

Seeing as how hurricanes always follow climatology, I think you may be onto something.

[PurdueWx80]

There is DEFINITELY a very strong upper low east of Nicaragua. Look at all the popcorn convection under it, and the clouds to its east moving to the north:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

It looks like Earl will continue at 280-290 for another day, and then when it encounters this low, the outflow to the north should expand and the storm will treck more towards 310 for a bit. This is the same mechanism that turned Charley to the NNW and helped evacuate air above the convection. I do like the idea of a strong storm though, just needs to slow down and organize a low level center first.

[Stratosphere747]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif


I've heard Dr.N.Frank talk about the "envelope"

When a storm is far enough south it get in this "envelope which takes the storm either into C America or thru the Y Channel/Cozumel area and into Mexico or the lower Tx coast...

It seems that this one is still moving west and at a very fast clip at that...Unless it begins to make sometype of WNW turn in the next day or so....Looks like C America....otherwise this could be a big WGOM storm depending on if it hits land or makes it thru the Y channel...

[Derek Ortt]

I see the UL moving more to the west. The UL with Charley was much closer to the storm that the current low near Nicaragua

Also, just because NHC says something, MIA, doesn't necessarily mean it is 100% accurate. They are erring on the side of caution. I am actually right of many models (GFS/AVNI/even GFDL)


also, fyi, graphics are available with this forecast

[Stormchaser16]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Ill be watching it, but i have the feeling right now it will hit the Yucatan..... then move into the SW GOM and then could just continue right into Mexico

[cajungal]

According to New Orleans News, High pressure is supposed to be over the Bahamas as Earl gets in the gulf. So, he said Florida Panhandle would be the biggest threat. My opinion he will track further west. I think from Houma, LA to Mobile would be the greatest threat. But, then I could be wrong.

[rainstorm]

it seems earl is very disorganized which may help it move more west as well