Could Danielle NOT turn out to sea?

[Guest]

then she won't.... There is a chance the eastern Atlantic trough COULD miss her... she is already well to the left of the last several runs of the hurricane models ...

The problem is that many of these models are run of the GFS grid which may be over doing the Eastern Atlantic trough amplitude.

again it is still a good bet she will turn out to sea.... but the window wont stay open on that forever ....

[Weatherboy1]

Looking at the water vapor imagery, you can see that Danielle is almost to the same longitude as the ULL that is trailing that trough off of it. The ULL and trough are still digging, but it appears the ULL is moving ESE instead of dropping due S. To me, that says the trough COULD just shear Danielle instead of drop far enough S to scoop her up. We'll see. As you said, recurvature is likely, but not 100% today (vs. yesterday or the day before, when I would have said this thing had "fish" written all over her)

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

[paulvogel]

I think its still 95% of fish, and I have the newspaper to wrap it up on.

But anything can happen, so it bears watching

[Patrick99]

I don't know. To me, it looks as if that trough out there is missing Danielle. I don't think it's going up and out as quickly as people here seem to think. Not that I would bet my life savings on a landfall, but it doesn't looks as if it's taking the quick route to the Azores like everyone predicted.

[vbhoutex]

The TWD this morning mentioned this possiblity. It did not say it would happen, but that Danielle could miss the trough and that if she does she could easily continue westerly over warm waters and miniimal shear to become a major Hurricane. Of course this far out there is not mention of any eventual landfall, which imo is still very unlikely with Danielle.

[Guest]

if she misses the trough, do you think she would take more of a fabian or isabelle track? (remember fabian hit bermuda)

[TLHR]

Think of the Atlantic Ocean as one of those miniature golf course holes with the windmill on it.

The closer to Africa a storm forms, the greater the chance that it will be knocked out to sea by the many cold fronts that sweep across the ocean.
(Just like a golfball being knocked away by one of the windmill blades)

As you can see by this link, all models, especially the GFDL, show Danielle curving out to sea.


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Now, I suppose there is a chance that Danielle will loop-de-loop and swing back westward. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

[Rainband]

Bye bye Danielle

[rainstorm]

very rare for a cane to form that far east and not recurve.

[msbee]

well, until she makes up her mind, I shall be watching her very carefully!

[Steve H.]

If she does miss the trough, the Western ridge is rebuilding for her. If she missies the trough, she may be east coast bound.

[kevin]

NHC at 11 am seems more convinced that Danielle is taking a more northerly track. Seems to be still fish-bound.