Top 5 Worst Case Scenarios

[Anonymous]

Here are my top 5 cities where I think a major hurricane could be most deadliest. Post yours and comments.

1. New Orleans: Not only is it below sea level, it is in a similar geographical setting that Tampa Bay is in. New Orleans sits just west of a large bay, where storm surge would inundate the city. There is a possibility that the entire city could be under 15-20 feet of water, and adding the winds to this factor the destruction would be terrible. I feel that New Orleans is the only city that could be completely and totally destroyed by a powerful hurricane.

2. Tampa Bay: It has two large metropolitan areas in St. Petersburg and Tampa Bay. It also sits in a very flood prone area much like New Orleans. The situation would be similar to New Orleans, however it would not be as devastation as Tampa is a bit higher then NO is. Even still, devastation would be tremendous and luckily Charlie did not prove this to be true (Still unfortunate for Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda).

3. New York City: Even though it is highly unlikely for a powerful storm to directly impact NYC, if it did the results would be horrid. New York consists of Manhattan, which an island surrounded by the rest of the Burroughs (Bronx, Queens, etc). The storm surge would rush up the river, completely filling the Manhattan Island and putting it underwater. The skyscrapers would suffer tremendous window damage, and the high rise buildings would create a wind tunnel effect, further enhance the winds. The subways would be flooded and the Burroughs would suffer massive structural damage. Long Island would be severely flooded, and the New Jersey area would be ravaged as well. If people did not heed evacuation orders, casualties would be in the 1000s.

4. Houston: This city is one of the largest cities population wise and land wise, so the potential for widespread destruction is extremely high. Houston lies in a somewhat similar setting as Tampa, having a barrier island (Galveston) protecting a bay of water. The Houston metro area lies farther off the bay than the Tampa, so storm surge results wouldn't be as tremendous. Houston also has bayous, and many of them. The surge could push up the bayous flooding many parts of the city. Another factor that could be devastating are the amount of trees. Most residential areas I have seen in Houston have many trees near them, and with a powerful hurricane those downed trees could fall on houses, severely damaging them. Another issue is the large amount of chemical plants in the city, and I fear what a hurricane could do to those plants (which house deadly chemicals).

5. Miami: Andrew was a close call, but imagine a larger hurricane of the same size making landfall about 10 miles further north. Homestead will still be ravaged, and in addition Miami would be brutally whipped by the surge and winds. The surge would flood the city and the resorts along the beach would be devastated.

Other places of note: Fort Myers/Port Charlotte (As we have just seen), Baltimore/Washington DC, Charleston, Outer Banks/Hatteras, Corpus Christi, Mobile and/or Biloxi (Due to their close proximity).

Comments?

[OtherHD]

Sounds good to me although I'd move NYC up a bit.

[Ixolib]

I'd have to add the MS Gulf Coast, not because of the death potential, but because of the economic impact. There are nine casinos in Hancock & Harrison county, all of which are built on barges - each more than 10 years old. They are flimsy and in many cases unprotected from the south. Point is, a CAT 4 storm, with a 10-15 foot surge would not only put them in out of business for the duration of the storm, it would virtually destroy them, putting 15,000 people out of work for the foreseable furture. If a CAT 4-5 storm hits this area, especially in W. Hancock County, those 15,000 people will have no other viable opportunites for employment - the casinos are all there is - and they're all sitting ducks (literally!!).

[GalvestonDuck]

4. Houston: This city is one of the largest cities population wise and land wise, so the potential for widespread destruction is extremely high. Houston lies in a somewhat similar setting as Tampa, having a barrier island (Galveston) protecting a bay of water. The Houston metro area lies farther off the bay than the Tampa, so storm surge results wouldn't be as tremendous. Houston also has bayous, and many of them. The surge could push up the bayous flooding many parts of the city. Another factor that could be devastating are the amount of trees. Most residential areas I have seen in Houston have many trees near them, and with a powerful hurricane those downed trees could fall on houses, severely damaging them. Another issue is the large amount of chemical plants in the city, and I fear what a hurricane could do to those plants (which house deadly chemicals).

Heck, we already had the worst case scenario in SW Texas.

[quickychick]

I'd have to add the MS Gulf Coast, not because of the death potential, but because of the economic impact. There are nine casinos in Hancock & Harrison county, all of which are built on barges - each more than 10 years old.

Wouldn't they move the Harrison county ones into Back Bay if given enough advance warning? It probably wouldn't help much, but still...

If a CAT 4-5 storm hits this area, especially in W. Hancock County, those 15,000 people will have no other viable opportunites for employment - the casinos are all there is - and they're all sitting ducks (literally!!).

I think you mean East Hancock County unless you're talking about having the eye hit West and the strong side hit East. West Hancock would be Stennis Space Center--while it's inland and most buildings there could withstand a significant hurricane, not all could. And Stennis employs people from over in New Orleans and Mandeville, LA, to people from all the way over in Biloxi/Pascagoula (what a commute!). I agree the economic impact would be strong. There are also a lot of stubborn folks here who would ride it out, so I'd bet a high loss of life, too.


And then, there's Keesler AFB, home of the Hurricane Hunters....

[Steve Cosby]

Wouldn't they move the Harrison county ones into Back Bay if given enough advance warning? It probably wouldn't help much, but still...

Those casinos aren't really movable, are they? I watched the construction on one up in Vicksburg and it just really doesn't look like it is actually on the water. They built a dam around the whole area before starting so that there would be no water there during construction.

[PTPatrick]

My understanding when the casinos were built was that they would be moved out to the gulf in the event of a storm(just like Northrop Grummon would do with any large ships that it is building when a storm approaches). I dont know how they would do it, but supposedly the can be moved. The idea would be to get them off the beaches where they could cause more damage.

I do know they they are moored(sp?) down so that if they arent moved they would not rise with the storm surge. I remeber during George some of the Grand Casino's broke, but not enough to cause significant movement of the barge.

[goodlife]

The problem with New Orleans is that the whole city is in a bowl..I believe the actual city is like 13 ft BELOW sea level! For Georges when they thought it was coming here....they opened the superdome as evac center...there's been lots of controversy before and after as to whether that is a good idea or not.
I live north of New Orleans across the causeway over Lake Pontchartrain...they were predicting that if a Cat 5 came up the mouth of the river...everything south of I-12 would be underwater...it would probably totally change our coastline as well....yikes!!
I'd rather not find out!

[Anonymous]

I think Florida is the worst state for a hurricane to hit. (Aside from the Northeast's massive population, but a major hit there is rare). If you look at this map from the US Census Bureau there are not many places, if any, where a major hurricane could hit that it would not damage a moderate to large population center. Even if it hits a small populated county on one side there is a larger population inland or on the opposite side of Florida. I think Charley was a good example of this. Also, Florida hurricanes tend to impact other areas after making landfall -- 1) the Northeast if landfall is made from Gulf and 2) into the Gulf if landfall is made from the Atlantic. Also, even some of the counties in Florida with small populations tend to have more people living in them than the small counties in say Texas or Louisiana.

[goodlife]

also..if New Orleans were to be directly hit by a strong storm the economic impact would be catastrophic....downtown New Orleans..just outside of the French Quarter is the CBD...right there near the river..and then there's the Port Of New Orleans...which is one of the busiest in the country.
Not to mention the tourism...

Total devastation..

[Lindaloo]

Those casinos used to be moveable, but they are now stationary. In 1998, when Georges rolled through, two casino's in particular (Treasure Bay) and (Casino Magic) had significant damage and both were shut down for quite a while. When we had a tropical storm (Isidore) Treasure Bay had significant damage yet again and Casino Magic was flooded. If we have another CAT 4 or 5 those casinos will no longer be there. We have not had a CAT 4 since 1979. And this area had a CAT 5 in 1969.

PT, the casinos were moved to Back Bay not the Gulf.

[The Big Dog]

I posted in another thread yesterday that FEMA has pegged the New Orleans scenario as the #1 worst-case natural disaster that we face in this country. They forecasted a huge death toll -- don't remember exactly, but 40,000 sticks out in my mind. Of course, it depends on how many people heed the warning and leave town, but since it's been a long time since they've had one, the how-bad-could-it-be mentality will certainly have some effect, and no doubt people will try to stick it out at home in the bowl.

Another scenario that would probably make my top 5 would be a Cat 4/5 Florida Keys hit from the east, particularly if the storm takes aim at South or Central Florida and then veers west unexpectedly, taking a similar path as Andrew, only further south. I'm afraid people would think it's going north and try to stick it out, only to be caught behind after it's too late to evacuate. And the ones who try to leave will get stuck on that two-lane US 1 when the worst of it comes in. Anyone who knows anything about the '35 Labor Day hurricane understands what this means.

I've heard it will take at least 24 hours to evacuate the Keys. They would have to make the call two days ahead of time.

[GulfBreezer]

In my opinion, aside from the economic impact, New Orleans is the place that would be most physically devastated because of the sea level issue. N.O. has no defenses to a storm of ANY level.

[quickychick]

Of course, it depends on how many people heed the warning and leave town, but since it's been a long time since they've had one, the how-bad-could-it-be mentality will certainly have some effect, and no doubt people will try to stick it out at home in the bowl.

And, traffic on a clear day in NOLA is horrible. It would probably take two weeks to evacuate 70% of the population for a hurricane.

[wx247]

A good friend of mine from the NOLA area always tells me that "it floods every time it sprinkles". Having been in NO during a "shower" where the streets began to flood, I can only imagine what would happen if storm surge were added to the mix.

[goodlife]

this is a fascinating article on what would happen to New Orleans...
neat graphics too...
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/?/washingaway/part2.html

[quickychick]

I'll never forget some national news goob interviewing a guy in the Quarter after Lili hit. Intrepid Reporter tells audience they are standing in several inches of water. Guy in Quarter asks Intrepid Reporter: "Do you smell that?"

Intrepid Reporter looks rather confused and asks, "Smell what?"

Guy in Quarter: "CLEAN! It smells CLEAN!!"

[bevgo]

The Emergency management director was on the radio last week. He said that if a storm such as Charley hit the New Orleans area the jefferson/orleans parish line would be under 22 feet of water. God help us!

[Ixolib]

Wouldn't they move the Harrison county ones into Back Bay if given enough advance warning? It probably wouldn't help much, but still...

Those casinos aren't really movable, are they? I watched the construction on one up in Vicksburg and it just really doesn't look like it is actually on the water. They built a dam around the whole area before starting so that there would be no water there during construction.

Just to update on the status of the MS casinos... If a CAT 4/5 comes into W. Hancock County, putting Harrison in the right front quadrant, the results would be extremely significant for the casinos. In other words, after the storm, they would no longer be there!! They are NOT movable as they are "perminantely" moored in place. They will float up to about 12 feet before they can't go any further. Then, if you put any wind-driven waves on top of the surge (which would be much greater than 12 feet with a CAT 5!!), they just simply can's stay together. And I'm jst talking about the barge part. The superstructure is nothing but siding and sheet metal. We've had minimal impact storms in the recent past (Elana, Georges, Lili) that created significant damage. But no direct hit since the inception of casinos in 1991. A CAT 4/5 will put them out of business for a long time, and all 15,000 of the people who work at them...

[Abdullah]

Prescient thread for sure

I was halfway through reading it, with "New Orleans"... "New Orleans"... "New Orleans" before I realized the thread is from before Katrina