Who, on this board, has the best hurricane forecasting %?

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I know there are a lot of maybe here, maybe there. Who has been successful in there predictions? Anyone?

[wx247]

Me, me, me!

I think I have been right every time. My forecast: "wait and see".

[kevin]

We have many qualified people on this board. It would be hard to say who is best, many people here actually have specialties, or differing degrees of tropical cyclone experience. We have professional mets and graduate students, a plenty.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I am not looking for the best educated person.
I am looking to see who has forecasted a certain storm to go so-and-so and it did, a person not involved in the weather field could do that.

[Lindaloo]

I have to step up to the plate in this thread for USAwx1. And also wxman57. When the sigs come back everyone should take a look at wxman's.

Thursday night, USAwx1 told me in chat that he was concerned about Charley after he came off Cuba and that he could possibly intensify rapidly and head towards Sanibel. He then told me Charley would go up through Orlando and then to Daytona Beach, not Jacksonville.

I immediately contacted friends on Sanibel who were not going to evacuate. They left. I also contacted furluvcats to get in touch with her Mom in Daytona who is on a barrier island. I tried to get in touch with Amanzi but she had already evacuated.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Cool! Thanks, Lindaloo!

[kevin]

I am not looking for the best educated person.
I am looking to see who has forecasted a certain storm to go so-and-so and it did, a person not involved in the weather field could do that.<<

Yeah, anyone can guess. If you wanted to know who knows what they are talking about, you need an educated person. Books will only take you so far... true... but knowing advanced mathematics (differential equations and the such), and advanced atmospheric modeling (how the weather works, physically) puts you a step higher than sticking your wet finger in the air and being an enthusiast. =)

[kevin]

I agree lindaloo, wxman57 and USAwx1 are awesome. Derek is a really top notch forecaster too.

[Lindaloo]

Kevin, we also have alot of amateur forecasters here on this board. Southernwx being one of them. He also made a good call on Charley.

[Rainband]

From: spaceisland
To: Rainband
Posted: Fri Aug 13, 2004 6:55 pm
Subject: For once I got one right

You said, "Charley fooled everyone." For once, I got it right: This is my post from yesterday (which I repeated about 4 timesin different threads)...Posted: Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:21 pm Post subject:

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I'll go on record that Charlie will go N and then to NE sooner rather than later... I'm thinking Sanibel.... one of our favorite vacation spots, could be "ground zero". The fact that it is an island with a unique east-west orientation makes it great for shelling... and not good for hurricanes coming at an acute angle to the coast...

Sincerely,
Robert Roach aka spaceisland... Melbourne science teacher

I say he did a top notch job as well

[Lindaloo]

Awesome buddy! Thanks for posting that.

MWatkins also did a very good job!!!!

[Rainband]

I agree many talented individuals on this site!!!

[Lindaloo]

I also think that this post from Off Topic should be placed here too.

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azskyman
Category 1



Joined: 13 Mar 2003
Posts: 2474
Location: Scottsdale Arizona
Posted: Sun Aug 15, 2004 8:57 am Post subject: A Board With A Heartbeat

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Hurricane Charley's erratic wobbles were almost "visible" in real time on Storm2k as members and visitors shared messages and voiced their opinions. During the most intense time of that storm there seemed to be pinpoint focus in "near real time" on the hurricane thread, and in ways that only a true open forum could be, Storm2k held up to those violent winds in some steadfast ways.

I am SO proud of the work and commitment of those who have brought this concoction of folks together. While watching TWC has always been a staple when storms like Charley make landfall, I must admit that I now believe the heartbeat of Storm2k is an equally important source of near-real time information.

Hats off again to the founders and moderators for providing such a useful conduit for our own rapid heartbeats to pass through.

And now that THIS storm has passed, Storm2k is still reaching out to help others in need. What a wonderful and inspiring commentary that is on each and every member! Thanks each and every one of you!

I am SO happy that the bumps and bruises of the upgrade and repairs were done just in time for Storm2k to reveal it really does have a heartbeat!

[MWatkins]

I know there are a lot of maybe here, maybe there. Who has been successful in there predictions? Anyone?

I suppose it depends on how you measure sucess. If you are looking for someone to nail a forecast 5 days out every time...nobody here or elsewhere can do that.

Due to the large amount of time I'm investing in the streaming audio project I created only one verifiable forecast for Charley:

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/TC03_2004.htm

If you look at the shape of the curve of that track out into the gulf then it was a fairly ok forecast...it was well right of the TPC track for the same verify times....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/di ... .003.shtml?

However...once warnings go up I don't do track forecasts because of fears about exactly what happened.

Over the longer term...I have no idea about how my stuff compares with others here...mainly because there is no objective way to measure it. I'm sure though there are some who would undoubetly do better than me if we did create forecasts at the same synoptic/verify times night in and night out.

Here's how I measure forecasts...this is last years totals...

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/2003%20Fo ... cation.htm

MW

[chris_fit]

I posted that Charlie would be cat4 at landfall and intensify rapidly like 3 days before it did :-D


but that was luck :-P

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

MWatkins...I have always enjoyed your post!

[Derecho]

I know there are a lot of maybe here, maybe there. Who has been successful in there predictions? Anyone?

Forecasts really aren't forecasts unless they're a standard NHC forecast with the same time points, with specific lat-longs and intensities, and doing it at least once a day.

Then it's easy to calculate and compare track error, to NHC even.

I hope to re-start the TC forecast contest sometime.

Otherwise, if it's a morass of vague statements or some sort of "where will it go?" poll, it's impossible to objectively compare forecasts.

And skill is determined by a large database of storms...

When someone constantly forecasts everything to massively intensify, and they happen to be right on a given storm, that's not demonstrating "skill."

Or when you have a large group of people who really have no idea what they are talking about all forecasting a given storm, one of them is guaranteed to be right by dumb luck...that isn't "Skill" unless it's repeated on multiple storms by the same person.

[SouthernWx]

Kevin, we also have alot of amateur forecasters here on this board. Southernwx being one of them. He also made a good call on Charley.

Thanks for the kind words Lindaloo

I was only posting my grave concerns....trying to point out the unusual potential for this hurricane to become extremely dangerous, to explosively deepen just before landfall. We'd never witnessed a strong hurricane recurve into the Florida west coast during mid-August when sst's were at their peak. Combine that with the large coastal population between Clearwater and Naples, add the potential of a devastating storm surge, and I was honestly alarmed. My only motivation was saving lives.

[Lindaloo]

Great post SouthernWx.