Finally waking up this morning and seeing MANY posts from people claiming with much certainty that this storm is going to hit the Yucatan and spare the US a direct strike, all the while still being more than 100+ hours out. That is rediculous. They are not even basing their claims off more than a few runs they see on a possibly out dated map, or a water vapor loop which is not an easy read like 'hop on pop'.
The one thing people should have learned with Charley is the vast possibilities that can occur, and very frequently do. Especially when forecasting days in advance. I'm not saying these posts will endanger or directly confuse someone however it all adds to the hysteria and hype that we do not need with something so serious.
Here is a link to a few models that point to the contray to many posters beliefs that this WILL BE a DIRECT HIT ON THE YUCATAN.
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
Check the NoGaps that is putting it off lousiana cost; review the UKMET which tracks it over western cuban and into the FL Panhandle. It seems the GFDL is taking Earl more southerly with each run. At this point we known a GENERAL AREA where the storm will be, but claiming you know the exact location of landfall is boarderline rediculous; however, if you are right, please pick me some FL Lottery numbers!
Just remember many people around the world read this board. The specific comments you make without discolsures stating your lack of credentials such as a MET degree, or lengthy field experience can create flase impressions in others minds.
Before Charley i would have thought to myself after reading this post, this guy is an idiot, trying to help and protect those which are too 'Darwinistic' to help themselves. Well back then i expected more from people i suppose, and charley simply prooved to me that too many people these days are not smart enough to know not to drink the bleach they find under the kitchen sink, thus the existance of the warning label.
Sorry for the rant, i'm done now
-Eric
