Earl running well south of models, models moving south....

[Derecho]

Current motion seems to be West....has huge implications down the road.

Gonna be harder to dig Earl out of the Carib with a trough...

[Air Force Met]

Yeah...they are going to have to adjust the track a lot further south. The track is only 4 hours old and it is already 30 miles to far north. Looks to me to be west also.

[chrisnnavarre]

going to see him start tending north-west by TUE PM.

[Air Force Met]

going to see him start tending north-west by TUE PM.

Even if he does...it is still going to be further south than it is forecasted...which means he goes further west than forecasted..even if he turns to the NW by then. That, however, will be difficult given the subtropical ridge that will still be to his north. WNW is about the best he will be able to do by then...unless the ridge is weaker than forecasted.

[Guest]

do not discount models preparing a more fall-like upper pattern, and biasing a more zonal or less troughy pattern, as we go through time. Most medium and long range models and ensambles will not accurately forecast this seeing they're based not on real-time data but historical biasing.

[Stormsfury]

DO not discount that the fact that Earl right now is having some trouble maintaining its SFC circulation with a brutally fast motion to the W or WNW at 28 MPH ...

Again, satellite imagery shows another great MLC and spin, but Earl HAS to slow down, otherwise, it's going to to unable to maintain a LLC ...

SF

[jlauderdal]

DO not discount that the fact that Earl right now is having some trouble maintaining its SFC circulation with a brutally fast motion to the W or WNW at 28 MPH ...

Again, satellite imagery shows another great MLC and spin, but Earl HAS to slow down, otherwise, it's going to to unable to maintain a LLC ...

SF

that system is having no problems right now. the outflow on all quads is outstanding. typically this speed would be a problem but unlike last few years this hsant been a problem. Looks like some SW shear coming up but other than that this looks like a 2-3 coming up...conditions get even better once throgh the channel.

[BayouVenteux]

Again, satellite imagery shows another great MLC and spin, but Earl HAS to slow down, otherwise, it's going to to unable to maintain a LLC ...

Shades of a certain now-infamous system during it's run in the far eastern Caribbean last week.

[rbaker]

charley was in the same position as this one, except earl is a little futher south, motion of 25 mph didn't bother charley, so why does it have to on this one.

[chris_fit]

Earl.... Charley.... Earl.... Charley...


You can tell by the name that Earl is the outkast and wont be anything like Charley was

[corpusbreeze]

The reason for the west movement is that Earl has not really spun up yet, and the strong ridge north of it. When Earl does start to spin better and develope it will start the Corioles Effect and start to push up against the ridge and start a wnw motion. My forecast is it to push up and over the Yucatan in four days and enter northern part of the BOC. After that I have no idea. I just think it will be a western GOM landfall some where between Tampico to Galveston.I know that is pretty vague but that is the best I can do. Point is Earl is a western GOM storm. Oh one more thing, a large and powerful storm at that.

[Guest]

This season so far it seems like the systems are farther apart. Also they are on speed.

[PurdueWx80]

The last few WV frames show a rapid outflow expansion in the NW quadrant. That is sometimes indicative of a not-so-distant turn in the storm, as the upper level winds well ahead of the storm are pulling the clouds with them as they change. The convection is still moving west, with hints of being just south or north of west at times. I think that is likely to continue until the storm slows and the low level center is solid.

[Brent]

It's doing decently for a storm moving quickly. Charley was only a TD where Earl is now.

[OtherHD]

Earl also had a head start. Regardless, he is really tightening up on visible sats right now. I would be surprised if Recon didn't find a stronger system when they go in later.