Earl Advisories

[KatDaddy]

Ah Yes you are correct Derecho. Accu-weather was hammered for their forecast.

[kmanWX]

This says watch Earl all over it!!!

i think that track is not likely thatit would play out like that...

[Derecho]

Models have a hard time initializing a storm that isn't well developed right??

The inits on the runs that had Earl into the GOM or Florida were bad.

The inits now are fairly decent.

Thing about this thread is that finally SOMEBODY other than myself mentioned the possibilty of Earl going south of the GOM; it's really rather curious, it's almost as if it's considered geographically impossible; it's not. It's not a ROUTINE track but it has happened a decent number of times.

But it routinely goes unmentioned as even a possibility; look at DT's post here, or, of course, JB's discussion this morning. The GOM is treated as if it's the farthest south a Carib system can possibly go.

OR the "barely clip the Bay of Campeche" track which is technically a GOM track, but not really in the sense most people think of it.

I'm not saying there's no chance Earl goes into the GOM, but it's movement trend and the model trend say it's going to be difficult for even a fairly deep trough to dig Earl out.

[wx247]

I agree Derecho. The longer Earl moves west the smaller the chance he can be curved back to the NW by a trough.

[rbaker]

i read large errors in that prediction dereck, in fact bold letters, is the largest thing I read in there. Isn't this the 2nd year of the 5 day forecast? That's why nhc puts that disclaimer in there for their sake, because that's what it is an estimate.

[Guest]

the track does change from about 280 for 72 hours to about 290-300 afterwards. remember, that is only the forecast through 120 hours. If it turns to 315 afterwards, we have a TX landfall

which is it against us landfall or or tx coast?

[hurricanemike]

I would watch it....in the Day 4-5 it could be any where from the Yucutan Pen. to the Eastern Gulf.

From 11am Discussion:
"BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ENOUGH OF A RIDGE WILL BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT RIGHT TURN. HOWEVER...THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL IS AN OUTLIER AND DOES SHOW EARL TURNING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF BY DAY 5. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A OF THE GUIDANCE SAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED U.K. MET. MODEL. IT SHOULD BE BORNE IN MIND THAT THE TRACK ERROR AT 120 HOURS IS TYPICALLY A FEW HUNDRED MILES...SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THAT EXACT POINT."


It all depends on how deep the trough digs down into the Gulf from the Plains states.

[wx247]

Mike, even the latest UKMET that I looked at has shifted west.

[Stormcenter]

Models have a hard time initializing a storm that isn't well developed right??

The inits on the runs that had Earl into the GOM or Florida were bad.

The inits now are fairly decent.

Thing about this thread is that finally SOMEBODY other than myself mentioned the possibilty of Earl going south of the GOM; it's really rather curious, it's almost as if it's considered geographically impossible; it's not. It's not a ROUTINE track but it has happened a decent number of times.

But it routinely goes unmentioned as even a possibility; look at DT's post here, or, of course, JB's discussion this morning. The GOM is treated as if it's the farthest south a Carib system can possibly go.

OR the "barely clip the Bay of Campeche" track which is technically a GOM track, but not really in the sense most people think of it.


I'm not saying there's no chance Earl goes into the GOM, but it's movement trend and the model trend say it's going to be difficult for even a fairly deep trough to dig Earl out.

So what your saying is that it's more likely that Earl won't enter the GOM than it will, right? Can you stake you reputation on that?

I know I wouldn't.

[Nimbus]

I took a quick look at the water vapor loop and I can see the High centered over south Florida hasn't moved much. The ULL over central America is getting squeezed and elongated leaving Earl with quite a bit of running room before he catches up and gets much steering. Its been two hours since your question and we have received yet another report of rising pressures which would support a shallow westward track. Things could change if pressures start dropping and Earl slows down but that is crystal ball forecasting at this point.

[wxcsi]

AS I did with Charley..... the early call on EARL is a track trhru the Yucatan -- perhaps JUST clipping the NE corner of it -- then into the Gulf ...slowing down then turning NW as the next trough comes in .... this next trough will NOT be as deep as the last one of course but should be sufficent to allow a turn to the WNW Or NW and thus miss the Yucatan... IF he slow then a turn to the Upper TX or LA Gulf coast seems a good bet.... otherwise lower TX.

The upper ridge forecast to build south of Cuba may make it unlikely the system can get into the Gulf through the Yucatan. The current obs and latest models are fairly adamant.

Before you fly off the handle, this is just an observation and not meant to refute your post. I would note your post was made before the 12z/18 guidance and the still very fast W movement.

M

[wx247]

I don't think that is his point.

[TLHR]

I'm gonna go with the two leading models.

Earl will either hit the Yucatan peninsula, or curve and hit New Orleans.

Other than that, it's simply too "earl"y....

[dhweather]

I'd say that Earl is weakened in the last couple of hours on IR & VIS,
but that's part of it. Maybe it dissipates, maybe it's a CAT 5 in three days.

[crazycajuncane]

I don't know who turned on the 'cane' machine, but they are just popping up left and right!

I'm interested in the path of Earl, but nothing will take place here until I learn more. I'm looking at the maps and this one could hit Alabama or Mexico and anywhere between. Just keep your eyes

[crazycajuncane]

I've been watching Hurricane tracks for several years now and it will change as the days change.

Interesting to note that Charley had a similar path in the early days as Earl does, but everyone knew about the cold front pulling it up into Florida.

It's still a tropical storm and it's still a long shot to call.

[crazycajuncane]

Early call--Abbeville, LA east to Boothville, LA is my prediction. We'll see in a few days, though.

That would sure keep my eyes peeled.

That is a very early prediction.... Mine would be east of Lafayette if it takes a curve.... It's only been two years since Lili!

[*StOrmsPr*]

How can they be so sure that those were major hurricanes when there were no weather satellites up in 1950. Sure there are ship and land reports, but I don't really see how that can be totally accurate.

what about 1961

1 Hurricane ANNA 20-24 JUL 100 976 3
2 Hurricane BETSY 24-12 SEP 120 945 4
3 Hurricane CARLA 3-16 SEP 150 931 5
4 Hurricane DEBBIE 6-16 SEP 105 970 3
5 Hurricane ESTHER 10-27 SEP 125 927 4

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... index.html

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN AUG 15 2004

...EARL MOVING SWIFTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES... 230 KM...WEST OF GRENADA.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH ...37 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EARL
THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...12.3 N... 63.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

[Guest]

I agree crazy. There are tooooooo many wishers who change minds as quick as cameleons.