Earl Advisories

[wx247]

Well, at least it has slowed down.

[Wnghs2007]

Also pressure is down from 1011 mb to 1009 mb

[cycloneye]

Well, at least it has slowed down.

A tad slower but to see a real slowdown it has to move at around 15 mph.

[Wnghs2007]

Well, at least it has slowed down.

A tad slower but to see a real slowdown it has to move at around 15 mph.

Well its on its way Cycloneye. It has slowed down from 28 Mph to 23 Mph.

[Guest]

cyclone, I don't think it will slow down, and if it does it won't be at all that much IMO

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 9

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 15, 2004

Earl continues to exhibit a well-organized cloud pattern with fairly
symmetric upper-level outflow...even though the hurricane hunters
had difficulty closing off a low-level circulation earlier today.
The inner core convection is not very strong at this time.
Satellite intensity estimates are 45 kt from all three
agencies...but we will wait for the next aircraft fix in a few
hours before changing the intensity. The environment looks quite
favorable ahead of the storm so strengthening is still expected
...Especially if Earl slows its forward speed somewhat. The
official forecast intensities are similar to those given by
ships...with an interruption due to interaction with land.
Numerical guidance is now in more general agreement that there will
be sufficient ridging to prevent much of a turn to the north late
in the forecast period...although the U.K. Met does show a
northwestward motion around the western periphery of the ridge by
days 4-5. Other models such as the GFDL and NOGAPS are
significantly farther south. The GFS has difficulty tracking Earl
after a couple of days but suggests a mainly westward motion. The
official track forecast has been shifted farther to the left on
this advisory but is still to the right of the model consensus.

Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 15/2100z 12.3n 63.8w 40 kt
12hr VT 16/0600z 13.2n 67.0w 45 kt
24hr VT 16/1800z 14.2n 71.2w 50 kt
36hr VT 17/0600z 15.2n 75.4w 55 kt
48hr VT 17/1800z 16.0n 79.0w 65 kt
72hr VT 18/1800z 17.5n 84.5w 75 kt
96hr VT 19/1800z 20.0n 89.0w 65 kt...inland
120hr VT 20/1800z 22.0n 92.0w 80 kt...over water

[MGC]

My current thinking is the Yucatan solution......MGC

[Derek Ortt]

its going to be very close, but even if this hits northern mexico, ther will still be effects in texas since a hurricane is NOT a point

[Derek Ortt]

yes, this is the second year of the 5-day. so far the 5 day has worked very well for straight movers like claudette and isabel, but horrible for recurvature

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

My uneducated opinion.....Corpus Christy....

[frederic79]

Am I reading this right?

[Trader Ron]

I said Tex/Mex yesterday. I'm sticking with my forecast.

[PurdueWx80]

what are you reading? lol that info might help

[HURAKAN]

URNT12 KNHC 151219
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/1208Z
B. 11 DEG 46 MIN N
60 DEG 47 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1527 M
D. 55 KT
E. 021 DEG 028 NM
F. 087 DEG 53 KT
G. 004 DEG 027 NM
H. 1011 MB
I. 19 C/ 1513 M
J. 22 C/ 1504 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /8
O. 1/5 NM
P. AF985 0105A EARL OB 06
MAX FL WIND 53 KT N QUAD 1159Z.

I you say this one, you are completely wrong. RECON found 53 KT at flight level which translates into around 45 mph. Forget about the 55 KT in the letter D.

[OtherHD]

That's also an old recon report from this morning.

[cycloneye]

I am leaning toward Mexico two times in the Yucatan and just south of Brownsville.

[NorthGaWeather]

I just don't see it being a big problem to Mexico.

[Skywatch_NC]

I'm going w/ Mexico...

Eric

[amawea]

I will give my unofficial amateur prediction when I get home tomorrow evening based on the models and my own, however, not college degreed knowledge of meteorology. Like I said it's unofficial, but so is everyone elses.
Amawea

[corpusbreeze]

Not bad, I think it might be Merida at the end of the forecast, after that we will have to see how strong the western side of the ridge is for a more NW turn. Climatologically most storms at this low level will move south of Brownsville. I think this could be a large storm in size and wind speed.