NHC track shifted more to the left at 5 PM Yucatan into play

[cycloneye]

Discussion Number 9


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 15, 2004


Earl continues to exhibit a well-organized cloud pattern with fairly
symmetric upper-level outflow...even though the hurricane hunters
had difficulty closing off a low-level circulation earlier today.
The inner core convection is not very strong at this time.
Satellite intensity estimates are 45 kt from all three
agencies...but we will wait for the next aircraft fix in a few
hours before changing the intensity. The environment looks quite
favorable ahead of the storm so strengthening is still expected
...Especially if Earl slows its forward speed somewhat. The
official forecast intensities are similar to those given by
ships...with an interruption due to interaction with land.
Numerical guidance is now in more general agreement that there will
be sufficient ridging to prevent much of a turn to the north late
in the forecast period...although the U.K. Met does show a
northwestward motion around the western periphery of the ridge by
days 4-5. Other models such as the GFDL and NOGAPS are
significantly farther south. The GFS has difficulty tracking Earl
after a couple of days but suggests a mainly westward motion. The
official track forecast has been shifted farther to the left on
this advisory but is still to the right of the model consensus.
Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 15/2100z 12.3n 63.8w 40 kt
12hr VT 16/0600z 13.2n 67.0w 45 kt
24hr VT 16/1800z 14.2n 71.2w 50 kt
36hr VT 17/0600z 15.2n 75.4w 55 kt
48hr VT 17/1800z 16.0n 79.0w 65 kt
72hr VT 18/1800z 17.5n 84.5w 75 kt
96hr VT 19/1800z 20.0n 89.0w 65 kt...inland
120hr VT 20/1800z 22.0n 92.0w 80 kt...over water


Now the Yucatan Penninsula comes into play with the new track from NHC.

[MGC]

Yep, look like a Yucatan landfall is a good posibility at this time.....MGC

[Brent]

Has it approaching TX/MX border on Day 5.

[cycloneye]

That is good for the people who live in the gulf coast because at least Earl if it gets into the Yucatan wont intensify but after it emerges in the GOM will he grow rapidly again.

[SouthernWx]

With the new model guidance...especially the GFS which has changed since two days ago (now progging the high pressure ridge to hold farther west and delay the approaching trough), there's IMO a better than 50/50 chance Earl ends up south of the U.S. border; that is IF recon still finds a closed circulation this evening. Earl isn't looking too healthy late today, and as fast as he's moving, and as close to South America as he is (plus the fact wx stations on islands off the coast of Venezuela aren't reporting west winds)....Earl may be in the process of pulling a "Debby"

Not a forecast....just my .02 cents worth

PW

[rainstorm]

i agree, earl is looking bad. whats with 28 mph? wont take long for it to get to china. lol!!

[OtherHD]

Well, it's down to 23 mph as of 5pm. We'll see what Recon finds. Hopefully nothing.

[goodlife]

so....does this mean there is little chance Earl is going to come into the northern gom towards LA?

[Stormcenter]

so....does this mean there is little chance Earl is going to come into the northern gom towards LA?

I wouldn't let my guard if I lived anywhere along the GOM coastline. IMO

[Stormsfury]

The quicker that it slows down out of that steering core, the better the chance it has to close off a LLC ... provided there isn't too much RELATIVE shear.

SF

[wxman57]

THere won't be much of a ridge north of Early by day 5. With the trof in TX, I'd expect a turn NW-N just past the Yucatan. Upper TX coast looks like it may be under the gun, though Earl could be heading nearly north at that time and turning NNE just before landfall.

[Guest]

wxman, if it headed NNE, does that mean the florida panhandle is in trouble?

[AL Chili Pepper]

THere won't be much of a ridge north of Early by day 5. With the trof in TX, I'd expect a turn NW-N just past the Yucatan. Upper TX coast looks like it may be under the gun, though Earl could be heading nearly north at that time and turning NNE just before landfall.

That must be what the UKMet and the NOGAPS are seeing. The UK shows it moving west to the Yucatan and then more to the NW toward the upper TX coast. The NOGAPS shows it in the BOC on day 5, with very little movement on day 6. The very little movement seems to be a jog to the NNW.

[Stephanie]

I have a friend that will be taking a 3 week trip from Houston, TX down the east coast of Mexico to Belize and then to the west coast and back to California. When I saw the first thread suggesting Earl maybe going into the Yucatan and Belize I e-mailed her ASAP! She won't be leaving until August 23, so hopefully Earl's threat will be gone by the time she reaches it.