Earl Advisories

[rockythehusky]

Hope he is dying

Me too

[Brent]

The refiring convection is right next to another outflow boundary. Probably will be yanked away from the true center.

C H A R L E Y......D I D.....T H E.....S A M E......T H I N G!!!!!!

Exactly! Remember last Wednesday when people were doubting Charley had an LLC, it was right before the first recon flight into it, LOL, turns out it was stronger than we thought.

[kevin]

If Charley jumped off a bridge, would Earl jump too? You people are your personification of storms.

STORMS DON"T HAVE PERSONALITIES!

[Anonymous]

If Charley jumped off a bridge, would Earl jump too? You people are your personification of storms.

STORMS DON"T HAVE PERSONALITIES!

But they do have tendencies, and Earl will refire convection and not dissipate.

[wxman57]

Although Earl is moving fast now with a ridge to its north, the ridge should weaken by day 4-5 as Earl reaches the Yucatan and is beneath the upper trof to the north over TX. I think a NW track then possibly N-NNE is a good possibility. 18Z GFDL still says Mexico, though. One thought, Lance Wood (Houston/Galveston NWS met) did a study on Gulf storms and 81% of the time, weak tropical storms (at the time of the track forecast) moved inland right of the forecast over the past 15 years.

[snowflake]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2031.shtml?

[Thunder44]

If there is not closed surface circulation, than how where they able to send out a vortex message earlier?

[Brent]

This evening's recon or this morning's?

This morning they "barely" closed off one according to the NHC.

[kevin]

Anyone else want to comment? I'm sticking to my guns until convection remains steady over the center.

[Anonymous]

So am I assuming your predicting it to dissipate??

[Patrick99]

Even when Charley was a minimal hurricane near Jamaica, I remember it spitting out a pretty impressive outflow boundary to the west. That sucker was moving fast, too.

[PurdueWx80]

We don't really know that there is a center without a recon report yet. I think the rotation looked better this morning. I'm not sure how you think you can see outflow boundaries at night, but convection often refires on a boundary, so that is no reason to think a storm would die. If there is a low, or even mid level center still, it will pull that convection in and off he goes.

[Janie34]

I'll be the third person to say that I want Earl dead too.



Die Earl, die!

[PurdueWx80]

There is a chance that convection could organize a center further to the north, which often happens with young storms.

[Guest]

we need a break, leads head out to the lake... earllllllllll

aint it dark ... wrapped up in that tarp earllllllll


good bye earl!!!

[Andrew92]

All I can say is if it strikes as a major let's hope sparsely-populated Kenedy County again, ala Bret, so damage is minimized.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

All I can say is if it strikes as a major let's hope sparsely-populated Kenedy County again, ala Bret, so damage is minimized.

-Andrew92

On that statement I agree 100%.

[OtherHD]

You have to remember that this is the diurnal minimum. Convection is going to wax and wane at this stage. As to whether Earl is actual a TS or not, I'll leave that up to Recon, not satellite imagery.

[kevin]

True, storms tend to improve through the night. When is recon going to be down there tonight?

[Brent]

we need a break, leads head out to the lake... earllllllllll

aint it dark ... wrapped up in that tarp earllllllll


good bye earl!!!

I'm not ready to sing that yet.