Danielle Advisories

[weatherfan]

Dt message the same thing on a post that if she does it turn by Monday night tuesday then chances are she isnt turning.However its only a slim chances of that right now.So chances are still high that she will turn.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

[PurdueWx80]

Clearly it didn't make it at 5, but what about 11? It has the right look to get there, plus it is wrapping deep convection all the way around the clear eye as we speak. She almost is starting to look like a classic hurricane!!!

[HURAKAN]

Will Danielle Have A Path Like Kate, 2003 Did?

[Guest]

Looks like a cane on crack. I hope it goes north...

[Patrick99]

It's moving a little NW, but that upper level low already looks as if it's slightly to the NE of Danielle.

[cycloneye]

The hurricane has 100 mph maximun winds but as I see the pic it looks like it has peaked already as the eye is elongated however there is a deep convection burst so a close call at 11 PM to upgrade to cat 3.

[Wnghs2007]

Stronger Convection has exploded filling in the eye like Charley did for a time. Its not weakening just strengthening to gets its act together even more.

[Guest]

will it go up or westward? I am wondering thats all.

[Hurricanehink]

Hmm.... I think it still has a shot at becoming the third major. Convection is pretty deep near the eye, so maybe it is on the verge of strengthening again.

[kevin]

I think Danielle has peaked, but maybe the NHC will say 'Maybe Danielle was a major hurricane between advisories' they have done that before.

[Guest]

They (NHC) have done a lot of things before. Hmmm..

[cycloneye]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
15/2345 UTC 12.3N 63.8W T2.5/3.0 EARL -- Atlantic Ocean
15/2330 UTC 15.9N 34.7W T5.0/5.0 DANIELLE -- Atlantic Ocean

5.0 sat estimates are 90kts so Danielle is very close to cat 3.

[Guest]

very impressive..

[cycloneye]

On the other hand Earl looks sick but it can come back tonight however if it doesn't do so in the next 12 hours it well be an open wave if recon can't find a true LLC.

[cycloneye]

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 15, 2004



infrared satellite imagery shows that Danielle has maintained a
small eye that has occasionally been obscured by cold cloud tops
over the south and east eye Wall. Dvorak intensity estimates are
now a consensus 5.0 from TAFB...SAB...and AFWA. Therefore...the
initial intensity is bumped up to 90 kt for this forecast cycle. It
appears that less dry air is being entrained into the hurricane and
the system now has a more circular representation with good outflow
in all quadrants. A Quikscat pass at 2016z indicated that the wind
field around Danielle is not as large as previously thought and the
wind radii have been trimmed back to account for this...especially
over the northern semicircle.

The vertical shear over Danielle is relatively low at the moment and
sea surface temperatures are almost uniform along the forecast
track. The shear is forecast to increase after about 24 hours so
the forecast intensity is held at 90 kt over the next day with
gradual weakening thereafter...roughly in between the SHIPS and
GFDL guidance.

Danielle is now moving at 305/15...a little to the right of the
previous motion...as expected. Most of the guidance recurves
Danielle to the north and then northeast through five days in
response to a mid-level trough south of the Azores. The outlier is
the GFS...which practically dissipates Danielle within 72 hours.
Given the current strength of the system and the intensity
guidance...which maintains Danielle as a strong cyclone...this
scenario seems less likely at this time. The official forecast
leans heavily on a consesus of the other dynamical models and is
close to the previous official forecast. If Danielle happens to
weaken a little faster than expected...the degree of recurvature
may not be as pronounced.
Forecaster Berg/Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 16/0300z 16.4n 35.4w 90 kt
12hr VT 16/1200z 17.9n 36.9w 90 kt
24hr VT 17/0000z 19.9n 38.5w 90 kt
36hr VT 17/1200z 22.0n 39.8w 85 kt
48hr VT 18/0000z 24.0n 40.5w 80 kt
72hr VT 19/0000z 28.5n 41.0w 75 kt
96hr VT 20/0000z 32.5n 39.0w 65 kt
120hr VT 21/0000z 35.0n 35.0w 50 kt

[abajan]

Might just make it to major status before weakening.

[Guest]

I am not going against the grain here, I am not sure which scenerio will pan out. but originally danielle was progged to miss ULL and approach the east coast of the US. according *some* of thursday/friday ens

[ncweatherwizard]

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ielle.html

On another hand, I've been waiting for Earl to be downgraded....

[cycloneye]

Discussion Number 13


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 16, 2004



satellite visible and enhanced infrared imagery...and a 16/0953z
SSMI/I pass depict a 14 nm irregular eye with strong convection
remaining over the western and northern quadrants. The SSMI/I pass
also revealed that the eyewall was more intense over the northern
portion. Visible imagery indicates that the eye has become less
cloud-filled during the past few hours. Dvorak estimates from
TAFB...SAB...and AFWA remain at T-numbers of 5.0
respectively...therefore the initial intensity remains at 90 kt.

Initial motion is 315/15...and as expected...slightly to the right
of the previous motion. The majority of the model guidance
indicates a gradual turn to the north by day 2 with a recurve
toward the Azores through the remainder of the forecast period.
However...the GFS continues to show a motion to the left of the
consensus...which would suggest an aggressive weakening trend as
the tropical cyclone moves beneath the upper southwesterlies
associated with a mid/upper level trough to the west. The official
forecast is slightly to the left of the previous forecast through
24 hours...afterward remaining consistent with the consensus...and
the previous forecast.

A weakening trend is expected beyond the 12 hour period as Danielle
moves beneath the southwesterlies associated with the trough to the
west. Therefore...the intensity forecast calls for a weakening
through the period...which is similar to the previous forecast and
the SHIPS guidance.

Forecaster Roberts/Lawrence

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 16/1500z 18.2n 37.7w 90 kt
12hr VT 17/0000z 19.5n 38.8w 85 kt
24hr VT 17/1200z 21.8n 40.3w 80 kt
36hr VT 18/0000z 24.1n 41.2w 75 kt
48hr VT 18/1200z 26.6n 41.6w 70 kt
72hr VT 19/1200z 30.5n 40.5w 60 kt
96hr VT 20/1200z 34.0n 37.0w 50 kt
120hr VT 21/1200z 37.0n 31.5w 40 kt


Close but it will not reach cat 3 status as shear will increase very soon.