Earl Advisories

[Derecho]

What's up with every single storm or wave either near the Yucatan or forecast near it being declared the next Opal?

Since Opal there probably have been a dozen such storms, none of which ended up bearing the slightest resemblance to Opal.

[ColdFront77]

Can you say Opal track?

Opal track.

..............Good job, Lyle!

[HURAKAN]

If our suggestions are true, this will be the 2nd or 3rd time this year a mechanical problem happens.

[ColdFront77]

Have to agree with scenario 2, mainly due to its fast motion.

One thing I have learned about these fast moving systems is that the models often overdo the turn and the slowing of the forward speed.

Are we that sure it will stay at this current speed? There have been enough tropical cyclones moving at this speed that slow down [in this location and westward].

[Kennethb]

Normally I would say hasta la vista ala Mexico to a TC at this time of the year such as Earl. But I would also would not believe any cool front would make it through Baton Rouge in July or August. We have had four cool fronts make it through Baton Rouge into the GOM in the past month. Could we have a fifth this weekend that would draw Earl north?

At our current rate and weather pattern we need to be prepared.

[Brent]

Ugh...

When's the next flight scheduled?

[cycloneye]

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM EARL
FLIGHT ONE
A. 16/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0305A EARL
C. 16/1000Z
D. 14.0N 69.5W
E. 16/1100Z TO 16/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.


Tomorrow morning at 8 am.

[hial2]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The eyes, trust your eyes..North component

[rbaker]

looks like earl has started that wnw course, center may be higher latitude than before judging by ir sat loop, but only recon can confirm that.

[Kennethb]

I was noticing that too. Bears watching. No one should let their guard down at all.

[rbaker]

I 2nd the motion

[tampastorm]

Agreed I mentioned this earlier, I live in Tampa. I am prepared for any and everything!

[rbaker]

coldfront, says it all, last couple systems esp. charley did the same thing in the same area, and as I write this it was down to 23 mph from 28 mph, and expect it to possibly go down to 20. I think tommorrow am we will see a different system than we are now, with thunderstorm activity in a waning mode.

[Derek Ortt]

into yucatan/belize then the SGOM

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl052004forecast.html

[amawea]

Yep, the center of circulation jumped north and it looks like its heading wnw at 290 to me.
Amawea

[BayouVenteux]

Normally I would say hasta la vista ala Mexico to a TC at this time of the year such as Earl. But I would also would not believe any cool front would make it through Baton Rouge in July or August. We have had four cool fronts make it through Baton Rouge into the GOM in the past month. Could we have a fifth this weekend that would draw Earl north?

At our current rate and weather pattern we need to be prepared.

Kenneth, I wish I had the AFD from the BTR/NO office from the first day of this current "cold snap" , because it contained some information regarding record lows that I found kind of sobering in a "don't let your guard down" sort of way. Of the 4 or 5 periods listed for August record lows during this same period, two years stuck out like a sore thumb...1965 and 1992. Now I am certainly not claiming these are so-called analog years by any stretch. In fact, if I am not mistaken, both those years, unlike this year thus far, were El Nino phases in the eastern Pacific. That said, I do however, think it should be a potent reminder that despite these 58 degree mornings and bluebird skies...it IS August and hurricane season along the northern Gulf Coast is alive and well.

[rbaker]

changes by the hr doesn't it, which is why I say 5 day forecast has too big of error, so why put it up. 3 day is plenty and much more reliable. Even in these models and discussions, they sometimes change drastically. Like throwing darts on a board

[Derek Ortt]

I found from last year that for recurvature, the 5 day is unreliable, but for these straight forward tracks, they do have some use. Had one for Izzy last year that had an error of about 6NM (.1 degree lat off).

The 4 and 5 day forecasts should be used as <b>TRENDS</b> and not as specific points

[rbaker]

not only did charley do it, but so did bonnie, boy do we all have short memories.

[wxman57]

Recon got there, sent 5 reports, then left. Don't know if they couldn't find an LLC and called it off or if there were mechanical problems. IR satellite makes Earl look very poorly tonight. And QS winds on the descending pass showed no LLC (as with Charley). Earl could well have lost its LLC.