Earl Advisories

[OtherHD]

QS didn't show an LLCC with Charley until it was a hurricane...

[weatherFrEaK]

Recon got there, sent 5 reports, then left. Don't know if they couldn't find an LLC and called it off or if there were mechanical problems. IR satellite makes Earl look very poorly tonight. And QS winds on the descending pass showed no LLC (as with Charley). Earl could well have lost it's LLC.

Agreed, I believe Earl is but a wave right now.

[soonertwister]

I think that if Earl strengthens more rapidly than anticipated and becomes a system with a large circulation, then the chances of a U.S. landfall increase. I think that if he strikes Mexico below the Yucatan he could die there or reform in the Pacific or stall and turn back NE.

If Earl hits the lower Yucatan he should re-enter the Gulf as a much weakened storm, and if he goes high on the Yucatan or misses it entirely, the central and eastern Gulf would not necessarily be out of danger, depending on when he gets there.

[hial2]

The 4 and 5 day forecasts should be used as TRENDS and not as specific points

Mr Ortt, how can you say this when the margin of error by day 5 can be several hundred miles?

I think a TREND is what is forecasted to happen within 24 hours at most

By day 4 or 5, it's an educated guess

[Stormcenter]

The 4 and 5 day forecasts should be used as TRENDS and not as specific points

Mr Ortt, how can you say this when the margin of error by day 5 can be several hundred miles?

I think a TREND is what is forecasted to happen within 24 hours at most

By day 4 or 5, it's an educated guess

Good post.

[Derek Ortt]

Its a trend because you are saying the general area as to where the storm will be. That forecast mainly says Yucatan and southern Gulf of Mexico. However, one should not focus on that particular point.

anything from 36 hours and in, the forecast accuracy is MUCH higher

[Frank P]

Latest IR loop of Earl show some significant convection building off to the west of the center of the system.... system appears to be moving off to the wnw...

could it be possible that a new center will form around the new burst of convection?? system appears to have been struggling most of the night...

[abajan]

I didn't vote because I think it will be a problem for both Mexico and the US.

[wxman57]

From the latest NHC discussion - looks like the plane couldn't find an LLC:

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IN THE STORM INDICATED THAT
EARL WAS HAVING DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION. TOMORROW'S RECONNAISSANCE MISSION MAY FIND THAT EARL HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...IF EARL IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION...THEN SLOW STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

And more from the discussion:
IF NOT FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA THIS PROBABLY WOULD HAVE BEEN
THE LAST ADVISORY ON EARL...AT LEAST FOR NOW. THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EARL THIS EVENING WAS DENIED
ACCESS TO VENEZUELAN AIRSPACE. HAD THEY BEEN ABLE TO GET TO THE
STORM...I DOUBT THEY WOULD HAVE FOUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION..

[PurdueWx80]

I think it probably will form further N than the old center, especially if this convective upswing continues throughout the night. That's a pretty decent latitude gain, so don't be surprised if the NHC track is adjust to the right tonight or tomorrow.

[dhweather]

WTNT45 KNHC 160237
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

IF NOT FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA THIS PROBABLY WOULD HAVE BEEN
THE LAST ADVISORY ON EARL...AT LEAST FOR NOW. THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EARL THIS EVENING WAS DENIED
ACCESS TO VENEZUELAN AIRSPACE. HAD THEY BEEN ABLE TO GET TO THE
STORM...I DOUBT THEY WOULD HAVE FOUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION...AS THE
QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES AT 22Z LOOK MORE LIKE AN OPEN WAVE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH DOUBT TO KEEP ADVISORIES GOING UNTIL THE
NEXT AIRCRAFT ARRIVES TOMORROW MORNING...AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THAT MISSION WILL BE ALLOWED TO PROCEED.

[quickychick]

I laughed my hiney off at that one.* Hope Earl fizzles.



*that'd be at the TPC for bitching out the Venezuelans.

[Brent]

There's a VERY good chance this will redevelop if downgraded.

I'm very upset with Venezuela tonight.

[wx247]

If the convection can sustain for a long period of time then we might see a center reformation. However, as you know, tropical cyclones generally are nocturnally driven.

[Javlin]

Looks to be moving further N than previously thought.We will probably see the tracks change again.The outflow looks good and classic.One should expect the dirunal changes to take place at this point of development.

[dhweather]

There's a VERY good chance this will redevelop if downgraded.

I'm very upset with Venezuela tonight.

It would be ironically funny if it fizzles out. All the predictions, forecasts, guesses, SWAGS, all of it for naught. Just a friendly reminder that mother nature is in charge, we just get to watch.

[Frank P]

I agree, last runs also showed a minor shift to the right, any relocation of a center more to the north will certainly move that shift to the right even more...

see how much convection it can sustain over the evening... Bonnie certainly was a lady of the late evenings...

[Anonymous]

Should a center be relocating, the initial 5 day projected path the NHC issued yesterday, will more then likely play out...IE: the central GOM. I was hoping Earl would dissipate over South America.

[abajan]

Just a reminder that if it's just a wave now, it can redevelop.

I won't let my guard down on this one quite yet.

[lilbump3000]

I think were this new blob of thunderstorms is developing, thats were the center is going to reform.