Hurricane suprises Experts! Why?

[Guest]

When they have been tracking this since the beginning?

Hurricane Charley's 145-mph force took forecasters by surprise and showed just how shaky a science it still is to predict a storm's intensity — even with all the latest satellite and radar technology.


AP Photo


AP Photo
Slideshow: Hurricane Charley




"Most major hurricanes become major by going through a rapid intensification. This is the Number 1 area to research. I think that there is the perception out there because of the satellite photos and aircraft data, people do have faith in the technology and sometimes that faith is too much," Max Mayfield, National Hurricane Center (news - web sites) director, told reporters Saturday in Miami, 24 hours after Charley slammed into Florida's western coast.


"A lot of people think we can give them a near perfect forecast. We know we can't give them a near perfect forecast."


Charley quickly grew from a Category 2 to a Category 4 storm Friday and its course took a sharp turn to the right, which put it some 70 miles south of the originally projected bull's-eye.


With so much media focus on Tampa and St. Petersburg, many residents in and around Punta Gorda were caught unprepared. The hurricane left at least 13 people dead in its wake — a wake that might not have been nearly as big if the storm had stuck to its original path and struck the big evacuated cities farther up the coast.


All along, the hurricane center had issued warnings for coastal residents from the Keys all the way up to Tampa Bay, said hurricane center meteorologist Robbie Berg.


"We're kind of surprised that people were caught by surprise," he said.


Although Charley's path had the storm heading toward the Tampa area, Berg said the warning swath encompassed a much larger area — as far south as Punta Gorda, in fact. The swath takes into account any errors, he said.


"We were not saying Tampa. We were saying the west coast of Florida," Berg said. The media's fixation with "Tampa, Tampa, Tampa," gave the public the wrong idea, he noted.


Everyone had "ample warning," Berg said. "It's just unfortunate that certain people didn't evacuate."


Charley's turn to the right was not a big deviation, but because the hurricane was moving parallel to the coast, it ended up making a big difference in the landfall area, Berg said. The difference wouldn't have been nearly as extreme if the storm had been moving perpendicular to the coast, he said.


As for its sudden strength, it's not uncommon for storms in the Gulf of Mexico to rapidly intensify, Berg said. "We're just not that good with it yet. Satellites don't help.


"We always wish we could have more, better guidance," he said. "But with what we had, we did the best we could. Errorwise, we really weren't that bad. It's just that the storm happened to be so intense, that it made a big difference in landfall."


Just a week ago, NASA (news - web sites) announced the extended operation of a storm-monitoring satellite through this year's hurricane season. The space agency had sought to decommission the aging Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite, used for studying hurricanes and other severe storms, but granted a temporary reprieve at the request of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

[Aslkahuna]

The process of explosive deepening in a hurricane (or typhoon or Cyclone) is a poorly understood one and will remain so for a along time. Just because someone is expert in hurricanes doesn't mean that they know everything about or that storms will not pull surprises in either a sudden track change or intensity change (or both). It's to be expected in fact, which is why the hurricane forecasts are cones and not lines and why warnings cover wide areas.

Steve

[Guest]

ASK, do you think someone should do their doctorate on this, so that we ca understand why the sudden burst of energy? Do you think enertia played a role? Meaning be so close to land the it pulled the hurricane closer to land and eventually landfall in the south.

Thanks for the response.

[crazycajuncane]

When they have been tracking this since the beginning?

Hurricane Charley's 145-mph force took forecasters by surprise and showed just how shaky a science it still is to predict a storm's intensity — even with all the latest satellite and radar technology.


With so much media focus on Tampa and St. Petersburg, many residents in and around Punta Gorda were caught unprepared. The hurricane left at least 13 people dead in its wake — a wake that might not have been nearly as big if the storm had stuck to its original path and struck the big evacuated cities farther up the coast.

I think it's safe to say that the media did blow this up as a 100% sure strike to Tampa and St. Petersburg.... That storm was moving to close all morning long... I had a feeling it wasn't going to hit Tampa, but a good ways south.

Also, the sudden burst of energy may have to do with the fact the gulf waters are much warmer and that hurricane was well equipped heading into the gulf.

[Aslkahuna]

There have been studies done on this process but it still remains elusive-the problem is that many of the processes occur on a scale too small to be resolved by the operational Numerical models. Too many variables so little computing power (even with a Supercomputer). Differential friction and even the tilt in a storm caused by friction with the sea surface can cause a storm to exhibit a cycloidal motion (cyclonic rotation about a moving point) which we see as wobbles. In the Philippines, we were saved from a direct hit by a truly horrendous storm (STY Rita '78 with 155 kt winds and pressures below 880mb) because when the edges of the very compact storm hit the mountain wall of eastern Luzon, it jogged north far enough that it passed north of us and gave us much less wind.
So differential friction can save you or kill you.

Steve