Earl Advisories

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cycloneye
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#521 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:19 am

000
URNT11 KNHC 161150
97779 11504 20134 68008 15500 14032 18159 /2528 41130
RMK AF977 0305A EARL OB 06

After a period without reporting here is #6.They are in there now.13.4n-68.0w
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#522 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:22 am

That would be one impressive open wave....
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#523 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:27 am

385
URNT11 KNHC 161219
97779 12194 20129 69400 03600 14025 24248 /0012 41615
RMK AF977 0305A EARL OB 08

They are in the SW area of Earl 12.9n-69.4w
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Re: 6z GFDL: Earl into Mexico

#524 Postby snowflake » Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:29 am

Thunder44 wrote:It takes across the Yucatan than into the BOC until it makes final Landfall between Tampico and Veracruz in Mexico after 120 hours.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/04081611

Of course it's doesn't mean it will actually happen.



I read that from the Corpus Christi, Texas weather discussion. The mountains in Mexico would weaken Earl faster. I also read from the Brownsville weather discussion that it mshould be a minimal hurricane on August 20th and would be located around 21N and 93W.
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#525 Postby wx247 » Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:36 am

Glad to know I am not the only one.
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#526 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:42 am

589
URNT11 KNHC 161234
97779 12344 20128 70300 03300 12017 24238 /0011 41610
RMK AF977 0305A EARL OB 09


They are doing passes around the system.This one at 12.8n-70.3w.If there is a LLC there we will have a vortex message pretty soon if not no message then
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#527 Postby Anonymous » Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:44 am

This is the post where I did an oops.... :oops:
Last edited by Anonymous on Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#528 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:45 am

~Floydbuster wrote:000
URNT12 KNHC 151219
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/1208Z
B. 11 DEG 46 MIN N
60 DEG 47 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1527 M
D. 55 KT
E. 021 DEG 028 NM
F. 087 DEG 53 KT
G. 004 DEG 027 NM
H. 1011 MB
I. 19 C/ 1513 M
J. 22 C/ 1504 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /8
O. 1/5 NM
P. AF985 0105A EARL OB 06
MAX FL WIND 53 KT N QUAD 1159Z.


That message is from yesterday morning.
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#529 Postby Anonymous » Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:47 am

:oops:
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#530 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:52 am

Floydbuster, use this site for the latest recon reports.

http://www.met.tamu.edu/personnel/stude ... rface.html

Put "NHC" in the station. Then click on "Raw Data" and select "Reconnaisance" and than you are good to go.
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#531 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:55 am

572
URNT11 KNHC 161249
97779 12494 20128 71200 03300 10015 24241 /0012 40910
RMK AF977 0305A EARL OB 10

12.8n-71.2w.1012 mbs still making passes thru the area but so far no vortex message
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#532 Postby wx247 » Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:58 am

not looking good for earl
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Re: Earl's convection looks impressive.

#533 Postby Guest » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:08 am

Impressive?
Earl looks very bad this morning -- he is an open wave


HouTXmetro wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

It even appears there is or was an eye trying to form under the western ball of convection.
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#534 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:09 am

They are having a very difficult time finding a LLC so a downgrade to an open wave may be in order unless that still can find that elusive LLC.
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#535 Postby goodlife » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:10 am

just please tell me he's not going to come to SE Louisiana...you tell me that..and I'm all good...:)
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#536 Postby Frank P » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:11 am

well at least it looks like an impressive wave ... I bet recon can't find any LLC....
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#537 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:14 am

Frank P wrote:well at least it looks like an impressive wave ... I bet recon can't find any LLC....


Thats what I was saying, the 'convection' looks impressive. It's really firing up.
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#538 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:15 am

301
URNT11 KNHC 161308
97779 13084 20132 72000 03400 08014 2524/ /0012 40810
RMK AF977 0305A EARL OB 12


They are trying and trying and trying very hard to find a LLC but nothing so far so open wave will be the word at 11 AM unless there is a very tiny LLC they haved not seen.
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#539 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:20 am

That seems to be about right. I just looked at the 12Z models that just came out a few minutes ago and continue to take it further south. If the models keep trending this way for another day or two then perhaps the US can breathe a bit easier. But until they trend at this then I wouldnt be sold on anything just yet.

<RICKY>
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#540 Postby goodlife » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:28 am

so what does this mean?? Earl is dissipating..going bye bye??
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