Earl Advisories

#541 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:29 am

Folks if Earl gets downgraded on the next advisory it will
on be temporarily. Looking at the latest satellite image the system has too much going for it to not to reorganize and strenghthen. As matter of fact it may be doing that as I type this.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

dirtgirl · #542 Postby **dirtgirl** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:30 am

RICKY - further south as in the Yucatan/Belize?

it figures... i am scheduled to fly into Belize City Thursday afternoon. I'm not a weather pro, so i'm stuck waiting for the 11 am NHC update to see where it's heading.

But I'm starting to think my vacation needs a plan B!

#543 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:32 am

No vortex message means no LLC so it will be downgraded to an open wave but will be monitored for future signs of organization.

Stratosphere747 · #544 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:33 am

They have kept weaker looking systems classified...Do you think that at the least the will keep this at a T.D.

#545 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:35 am

DT wrote:Impressive?

Earl looks very bad this morning -- he is an open wave

HouTXmetro wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

It even appears there is or was an eye trying to form under the western ball of convection.

That's what you said about Bonnie before she was named.

#546 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:35 am

I wish they make a pass by 13.2- 67.5 it's on the southeastern side of wave axis but it shows the most promise tis morn

Thunder44 · #547 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:36 am

I wouldn't be so sure that they will downgrade it at 11am. They didn't do that with TD3 when it was in the Carribean and didn't find an LLC. They gave it chance to develop one later in the day before they downgraded it. They maybe reluctant to do so now, because the media would to play as "Earl is completely gone".

KatDaddy · #548 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:40 am

Earl looks terrible. Just a large TW and nothing else. Does not look to be a future GOM threat at this point. Still worth watching but looking weak and into Central America

KatDaddy · #549 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:41 am

The weaker the system, the less poleward motion....Central America

KatDaddy · #550 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:42 am

Expect a TW later today rather than a TS or TD. Earl is having a very very tough time organizing. Also means models will shift left into Central America

Thunder44 · #551 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:46 am

97779 13084 20132 72000 03400 08014 2524/ /0012 40810
RMK AF977 0305A EARL OB 12

13.2N 72.0W

URNT11 KNHC 161323
97779 13234 20132 71300 03400 99005 25241 /0012 40410
RMK AF977 0305A EARL OB 13

13.2N 71.3W

URNT11 KNHC 161333
97779 13334 20132 70800 03400 99005 24248 /0012 49905
RMK AF977 0305A EARL OB 14

13.2N 70.8W

They seem to be heading back east on the south side. They haven't given up yet.

#552 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:46 am

never mind...ya barely beat me to saying they were going back in

Seems like a good idea since the eastern blob of convection is rotation cyclonically around the western portion.

Website · #553 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:47 am

Poor Earl. :cry:

#554 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:48 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:They have kept weaker looking systems classified...Do you think that at the least the will keep this at a T.D.

If they can't close off a LLCC then they should downgrade it to an open wave. That doesn't mean they will. They tend to err on the side of caution and keep systems as a TD if there is a decent chance of regeneration, which imo there is with Earl. He has slowed some this morning and if that continues I would place bets on him beginning a "comeback". His high speed chase across the Caribbean has been his biggest problem so far. Recon so far has not closed off an LLCC but has found some TS force winds in several places. My guess is that if they do downgrade it will be to TD status, wave or not.

#555 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 8:53 am

KatDaddy wrote:Earl looks terrible. Just a large TW and nothing else. Does not look to be a future GOM threat at this point. Still worth watching but looking weak and into Central America

I'm surprise you would say KayDaddy. I still think
Earl has pretty good chance of being a GOM problem but hey that's what this boards about opinions we all have different ones.

goodlife · #556 Postby **goodlife** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 9:01 am

I hope Earl has a nice and peaceful death...

goodlife · #557 Postby **goodlife** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 9:01 am

and none of this come back to life stuff either!!!

Stratosphere747 · #558 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 9:04 am

That is what I thought....Would the recon flight schedule be any different if it was downgraded to a wave or kept at a T.D.

#559 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 9:04 am

KatDaddy wrote:The weaker the system, the less poleward motion....Central America

That's the problem KatDaddy it probably won't be
a weak system when it get's to the NW Carribean.

#560 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 9:07 am

096
URNT11 KNHC 161350
97779 13504 20132 70000 03500 14020 24249 /0012 41215
RMK AF977 0305A EARL OB 15

Still they are flying around looking for that LLC.Pressure at 1012 mbs in that area.

Earl Advisories

If Earl gets downgraded it will on be temporarily.

further south where?

Re: Earl's convection looks impressive.

Man on man

That's the problem..

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