Is there a spin at 15n 72w?

canes04 · #1 Postby **canes04** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 11:25 am

Any thoughts on this area?

lilbump3000 · #2 Postby **lilbump3000** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 11:32 am

I dont know if this is a LLC but its something.

opera ghost · #3 Postby **opera ghost** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 11:35 am

I was jsut looking at a loop and thinking the same thing. It looks like it's pulling the point of the V in the wave south and east and like it might start wrapping around itself again.

Those clouds to the north east look a bit more like the Earl that once was... feathered and splayed.

#4 Postby **Pileus** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 11:37 am

Could be an eddy, cane. Alex spun off several eddies off US coast.

Matthew5 · #5 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 11:37 am

That is a LLCC! :eek:

#6 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 11:46 am

canes04 wrote:Any thoughts on this area?

Good observation.

Matthew5 · #7 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 11:47 am

Here is another good shot at it!
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

Appears to be becoming slightly better organized over time?

#8 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 11:51 am

It is certainly a spin but I am not convinced it is a LLC. One thing is for sure, if we can see it, the NHC can see it too and send the Hunter tomorrow a.m.

southerngale · #9 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 11:55 am

Isn't recon already scheduled for tomorrow morning?

Thunder44 · #10 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 11:57 am

It may be a vorticity max. I would like to see more convection develop over it before getting too excited. Right now it looks it may out run the convection.

#11 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 11:58 am

southerngale wrote:Isn't recon already scheduled for tomorrow morning?

Yes, I believe 8 a.m. My point was that they know exactly where to look if this swirl still exists then. I realize they have specific flight patterns to follow, but they can focus there.

opera ghost · #12 Postby **opera ghost** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 12:03 pm

Obviously they are going to know what to look for... but half the fun of tracking swirls so closely is seeing if you can catch something before the NHC posts an advisory about it. In this case we (the people here) are picking aroudn to see if we can catch reorganization before it's official

rbaker · #13 Postby **rbaker** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 12:07 pm

sure looks like a llc to me, maybe getting a little sheared, but it has slowed considerably from 24 hrs ago, this one is not history yet.

#14 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 12:08 pm

These unorganized systems almost always toss out midlevel vortices, like this one. Look at Bonnie, as she was coming ashore in FL one after the other formed near the center of rotation, but none sustained themselves and became THE center. If convection can wrap around it (the last frame shows cumulonimbus directly over its eastern side now), then it will most likely extend itself to the surface. Otherwise we'll have to wait for the t-storm complex to develop one underneath it.

~SirCane · #15 Postby **~SirCane** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 12:09 pm

Earl is looking better and better! He's on his way back.

Matthew5 · #16 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 12:42 pm

A upper high is right over it
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

HouTXmetro · #17 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 12:51 pm

If this is indeed a LLC. What implications will the location of it have on the forecasted track? WIll it stay the same, move left or right?

#18 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 12:51 pm

Most definitely a spin at that point. It also appears to be trying to wrap in some convection so it is possible it will take it back down to the surface. Unless this just explodes into an OBVIOUS TC we won't know until tomorrow morning when Recon gets there. We can always speculate and opinionate though. That is part of the fun of learning about the weather.

Matthew5 · #19 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 1:31 pm

Deep convection just moved over that!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Is there a spin at 15n 72w?

Is there a spin at 15n 72w?

Re: Is there a spin at 15n 72w?

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