Earl Advisories

[GalvestonDuck]

Earl looks terrible. Just a large TW and nothing else. Does not look to be a future GOM threat at this point. Still worth watching but looking weak and into Central America

I'm surprise you would say KayDaddy. I still think
Earl has pretty good chance of being a GOM problem but hey that's what this boards about opinions we all have different ones.

Sounds like you guys agree...why are you surprised he said what he said?

Basically, it's the same -- nothing there now, not a problem AT THIS POINT (his words), and still worth watching. He hasn't totally given up on it. KD knows better.

[crazy4disney]

Impressive? "Edited"

If you want to disagree with the poster, disagree. But sheesh...

-gina-

[Guest]

I agree with Gina.

[Guest]

by the way, to add to the discussion, there is quite a bit more convection than previous days with this system. still watching..

[HouTXmetro]

You know gina, I couldn't have said it better myself. For one when I posted this message I said it 'looks like' not it was. I have some limited experience in the meteorology field and know for sure I don't know it all or even half for that matter. Thats why I post on this message board because I can ask questions and have others including proffesional mets chime in. I really thought his comments were uncalled for.

[southerngale]

HouTXmetro, his comment was uncalled for and now it's gone. Keep asking away and giving your opinion. Personal attacks are not allowed.

[KatDaddy]

Hey StormCenter we are on the same page. For TW Earl's remnants are quite active but similar to previous days. I was commenting on the current SAT view of Earl. Still worth watching and Earl could be reborn. This is AUG and its headed into some warm waters ahead. Since its a weaker system it seem there is a much higher chance to it to impact Central America.

On a side note I see DT went off the deep in......again.

[lilbump3000]

I have a feeling this will not run into central america. If you look at it you can cleary see that the wave it self is moving WNW. I also say if a new center does forming, looking at the wave now, i think that center will form probably north of 15N.

[Stormcenter]

Hey StormCenter we are on the same page. For TW Earl's remnants are quite active but similar to previous days. I was commenting on the current SAT view of Earl. Still worth watching and Earl could be reborn. This is AUG and its headed into some warm waters ahead. Since its a weaker system it seem there is a much higher chance to it to impact Central America.

On a side note I see DT went off the deep in......again.

Yeah my mistake KatDAddy for misunderstanding your thread.

Yes DT went off the edge again. He has a reputation for doing that in the past on another board we won't mention here.

[zoeyann]

I agree Lilbump- The storm formly known as Earl does seem to be moving WNW, and if a new center reforms it may be further north than the previous center

[Stormcenter]

Well it "looks" like Earl is on the comeback trail.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Matthew5]

Yes he is coming back with that blow up of deep convection over that "thing" that appears to be a "LLCC"

[lilbump3000]

Looking on the infrared loop you can see that TW Earl looks like he is going to slam into jamaica.

[bfez1]

Do you think Earl will reorganize???

[opera ghost]

Still doesn't look solid to me- but it does look like he's trying to redevelop.

[chadtm80]

Not yet.. But I believe he will

[Anonymous]

Looks to me as if a LLC is running out ahead of the convection. A LLC appears to be at about 16.0N and 73.5W, with the main convection trailing off to the SE.

[GalvestonDuck]

Just a bit -- nothing major, IMO.

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM EARL (AL952004) ON 20040816 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040816 1800 040817 0600 040817 1800 040818 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 72.7W 15.3N 76.0W 15.8N 79.3W 16.2N 82.3W
BAMM 14.7N 72.7W 14.9N 76.4W 15.2N 80.0W 15.6N 83.3W
A98E 14.7N 72.7W 15.7N 77.2W 16.5N 81.1W 17.1N 84.5W
LBAR 14.7N 72.7W 15.7N 76.7W 16.8N 80.5W 18.0N 84.0W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040818 1800 040819 1800 040820 1800 040821 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.8N 85.2W 18.2N 90.3W 19.7N 94.1W 20.6N 97.6W
BAMM 16.1N 86.2W 17.3N 91.2W 18.4N 95.3W 19.3N 98.9W
A98E 17.7N 87.2W 19.6N 92.0W 21.9N 95.7W 24.2N 97.8W
LBAR 19.5N 86.9W 23.1N 90.7W 27.7N 90.5W 32.6N 82.6W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.7N LONCUR = 72.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 24KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 67.7W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 26KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 63.1W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 25NM RD34SW = 25NM

To note ships model is not there plotting intensity future forecast at this run.Also to note this 14.7n-72.7w position the models start this 18:00 UTC run is more north than the 5 AM 13.2n position by the NHC.It is moving 285 degrees at a fast pace 24 kts.

[Matthew5]

That is where that LLCC is with that deep convection forming over it!